Autumn and Winter

[shuggee]

A shiny new thread to carry on discussing the forthcoming dark dreich months

[Guest Viking141]

A wonderful word is Dreich! Theres really no English equivalent which describes those conditions as well!

[tugmistress]

A wonderful word is Dreich! Theres really no English equivalent which describes those conditions as well!

i can think of a few that come close ...

Yuk

Mucky,

Bleurgh,

it's definately a dreich day here!

[memories of 63]

A wonderful word is Dreich! Theres really no English equivalent which describes those conditions as well!

Viking how do you join SACRA? I'd like to get myself all prepared for the best season of the year - dreich indeed

[Rollo]

Viking how do you join SACRA? I'd like to get myself all prepared for the best season of the year - dreich indeed

Hi,were you around in 63' for that fantastic winter?

[Somerset Squall]

Viking how do you join SACRA? I'd like to get myself all prepared for the best season of the year - dreich indeed

Ask Anti-Mild, the founder. I'm sure someone has a list of members somewhere. (snow queen one i think)

[Thundery wintry showers]

Driech- a Scottish term for dull damp weather often used by Bob Johnson in the North East.

[Rollo]

Ah Bob Johnson and his skity bits during winter. I think he is well worth a watch when he is on-far far superior to my pet hate Sain Lloyd.

[Somerset Squall]

Ah Bob Johnson and his skity bits during winter. I think he is well worth a watch when he is on-far far superior to my pet hate Sain Lloyd.

Don't get me started about Sian Lloyd!

[The Enforcer]

As you know, I'm not a big believer of pattern-matching in weather terms, in that whenever anyone on here tries to prove "X conditions in month/season A leads to Y conditions in month/season B", the results are always inconclusive. But did I not read somewhere on here that there is a very conclusive historic link between El-Nino conditions and a mild UK winter?

[shuggee]

If you read the posts after this one, there's been quite a discussion about it already

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=781636

[reef]

As you know, I'm not a big believer of pattern-matching in weather terms, in that whenever anyone on here tries to prove X conditions in month/season A leads to Y conditions in month/season B, the results are always inconclusive. But did I not read somewhere on here that there is a very conclusive historic link between El-Nino conditions and a mild UK winter?

Indeed, the following winters since 1950 have had moderate to strong El nino conditions:

1957/58 - 4.20°C - Below average

1965/66 - 4.43°C - Above average

1972/73 - 4.87°C - Above average

1977/78 - 4.10°C - Above average

1982/83 - 4.57°C - Above average

1987/88 - 5.27°C - Above average

1991/92 - 4.60°C - Above average

1992/93 - 4.70°C - Above average

1994/95 - 5.90°C - Above average

1997/98 - 6.10°C - Above average

2002/03 - 4.70°C - Above average

Doesnt make promising reading does it? Every moderate to strong El nino winter since 1950 has a winter CET above 4.10°C, so it would seem that El ninos do favour mild winters here in the UK, at least nowadays anyway.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Ah Bob Johnson and his skity bits during winter. I think he is well worth a watch when he is on-far far superior to my pet hate Sain Lloyd.

Not to forget 'thunderplumps'

A bit of trivia... Did you know Alan Hansen (football pundit) is Bob Johnsons cousin.

[summer blizzard]

I still maintain that a weak El Nino encourages a positive PNA and southerly tracking Jet Stream.

[The Enforcer]

What concerns me from the other thread is that the experts seem to be forming a consensus that this winter won't be as blocked as last. I thought this was on the cards as soon as it became clear that the SST pattern was taking on a different form.

The implications of this is that we are relying on the Jet to be far enough south to allow polar air to penetrate the UK on the northern flank of depressions. As I understand it this was how much of the 1978/79 snowfall was accrued. Unfortunately this plays into the hands of global warming. Firstly, this assumes that we can get around the problem of secondary low formation, itself a symptom of high SSTs in the North Atlantic (and look there they are again) cutting off the cold source. Secondly, these types of snowy spell were always more about high precipitation than piercing cold. Factor in the ambient rise in temperature (albeit a relatively slight one) in recent decades and run these scenarios again and I wouldn't be surprised where lowland areas previously got copious snowfall, they'll be lucky to see slush. Thirdly, I remember when the Jet eventually tracked south for a spell late last winter - too far south - into France - crap again. Cue another winter of knife-edges, marginality and ultimately disappointment.

In my view, the only chance some areas have of seeing a decent snowfall again is sustained blocking being in just the right place to channel in a significant swathe of cold air from the East, where the changes in ambient temperature have less significance. We're looking back to 1996, 1991 and 1987 here. Last winter the blocking was sporadic, in the wrong place and non-existant in January, whereas this winter it looks like the mobile pattern is predicted to persist into the core of winter.

[summer blizzard]

I agree that we are looking at more low pressure development this winter than last however there is not a positive NAO signiture at the moment, therefore a cold but wet winter is more likely.

[The Enforcer]

therefore a cold but wet winter is more likely.

It certainly sounds cold and wet to me.

[memories of 63]

Hi,were you around in 63' for that fantastic winter?

Rollo,

I logged off so didn't see your reply. Yes I was (just) about for THAT winter. I can remember all the schools being closed and using old sacks as toboggans and having massive snowball fights. It's a funny thing though, I was reminiscing about '63 in the pub a few years ago and an older chap said it was nothing compared with 1947. This was then trumped by an even older chap who said that 1935 (?) was even worse than 1947. It would seem that there's always a 'better' winter to talk about.

Here's hoping for something startling this year, the last really good one I can remember was '81, when I worked in S. Wales. Work was closed for a week and the village I lived in was cut off for 3/4 days - the only paths made in the snow went straight to the pubs

[Dawlish]

I agree that we are looking at more low pressure development this winter than last however there is not a positive NAO signiture at the moment, therefore a cold but wet winter is more likely.

I don't agree in the slightest guys. Any development, or not, of lower, or higher pressures this winter, this far out, is no better than a guess. If there is any consensus, E, then it is a consensus of the partially sighted as to which would be the best path to take over the winter hills.

Paul

PS I chose "partially sighted" and not "blind" as I do respect the meteorological knowledge that goes into all these winter guesses.

[Big Bear]

Rollo,

I logged off so didn't see your reply. Yes I was (just) about for THAT winter. I can remember all the schools being closed and using old sacks as toboggans and having massive snowball fights. It's a funny thing though, I was reminiscing about '63 in the pub a few years ago and an older chap said it was nothing compared with 1947. This was then trumped by an even older chap who said that 1935 (?) was even worse than 1947. It would seem that there's always a 'better' winter to talk about.

Here's hoping for something startling this year, the last really good one I can remember was '81, when I worked in S. Wales. Work was closed for a week and the village I lived in was cut off for 3/4 days - the only paths made in the snow went straight to the pubs

Well I remember 1921 that was far worse than 1935 by a long shot. All roads were closed and the English Channel froze solid. We had a record number of French illegal immigrants that year.

On the serious side, I'm going for a highly mobile, zonal first half of winter leading to a cold or perhaps very cold end to January, still with zonal wet conditions and high snowfall for many. The west will be lucky this winter. The east will be much dryer.

[Rollo]

Morning Memories of 63',my recollections are much clearer for 63' as I was old enough to remember the daily weather quite clearly even at this distance,47' (when I was living on the NE coast (as I remember)produced many heavier falls that 63' but 63' had laying snow virtually from Boxing night until the beginning of March. The synoptics those days seemed to favour persistant highs to our north with a much quiter atlantic.Stretching forward to 79', whilst not producing the continuous cold of the two previously mentioned winters it gave the North East the most memorable snowstorms that I can remember-I was snowed in one day in february and 2 days in March and I live on the main road to Jedburgh literally 1 mile from newcastle airport-I begin to doubt that we will see winters of there ilk in the coming years but hope springs eternal and should one occur this year the board will go into hyper drive.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The charts responsible for the North East snowstorms:

Tynemouth snowed under with a midday temperature of -3C despite the warming effects of the North Sea:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790215.gif

46cm at Newcastle:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790318.gif

Apparently heavy prolonged snow showers from an E/NE'ly setup in mid February 1978 also caused Newcastle to be cut off:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119780212.gif

I bet it's a case of "those were the days". Seems to me that a flow from an ENE direction has historically tended to produce the biggest snow events in the region- the long track over the North Sea and high pressure well away to the north and northwest helping bring big snowfalls.

[Nick F]

I agree that we are looking at more low pressure development this winter than last however there is not a positive NAO signiture at the moment, therefore a cold but wet winter is more likely.

I don't agree in the slightest guys. Any development, or not, of lower, or higher pressures this winter, this far out, is no better than a guess. If there is any consensus, E, then it is a consensus of the partially sighted as to which would be the best path to take over the winter hills.

Paul

PS I chose "partially sighted" and not "blind" as I do respect the meteorological knowledge that goes into all these winter guesses.

I totally agree, although I tend not to delve much into LRFs as the scope for inaccuracy is great (but good on those who attempt to do so). But saying this pattern is more likely than that pattern at this early stage is just merely peeing into the wind for more want of a better phrase. Small alterations in time of atmospheric forcing on the NAO (and AO) patterns that were unforeseen can have big knock on effects down the line, a sort of 'domino' effect. There is as yet no really robust signal/signature from N Atlantic/N Pacific SSTs or other influences that can be confidently relied upon this early on to suggest a likely NAO pattern this winter, there are possibilities looking at recent signals but that's where the buck stops and the Met Office with their LRFs acknowledge these limitations. Though if the large area of warm SSTs persist in the North Atlantic, then I would tend towards this winter being dominated by a +ve NAO.

[reef]

The charts responsible for the North East snowstorms:

Tynemouth snowed under with a midday temperature of -3C despite the warming effects of the North Sea:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790215.gif

46cm at Newcastle:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790318.gif

Apparently heavy prolonged snow showers from an E/NE'ly setup in mid February 1978 also caused Newcastle to be cut off:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119780212.gif

I bet it's a case of "those were the days". Seems to me that a flow from an ENE direction has historically tended to produce the biggest snow events in the region- the long track over the North Sea and high pressure well away to the north and northwest helping bring big snowfalls.

Those charts not only show how different the synoptics generally are in the 'modern winter', but also show the marked difference of temperatures in the Arctic. The 16th February 1979 chart shows 850hPa temperatures in the Arctic circle below -25°C over a huge area:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219790216.gif

Compare that to charts we get these days and it shows a marked difference:

2006: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220060216.gif

2005: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220050216.gif

2004: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220040216.gif

2003: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220030216.gif

2002: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220020216.gif

2001: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220010216.gif

Now obviously this is just one day during an entire winter, but the absence of pinks and purples compared to 'older' charts only makes the likelihood of the UK getting a proper cold and snowy spell all the less. If an airmass at the source is 5°C warmer, then after moderation it will be 5°C warmer over the UK aswell. Such differences in temperatures can make the difference between rain and snow in some cases. The big question though is whether a warmer Arctic is a result of synoptics pumping warmer air up there, or whether the airmass temperatures are a result of a warming world, which in turn drives these synoptics.

[Weather-history]

Winter 1978-79 was an unusual winter in that not only was it notably cold but it was also notably wet. The winter of 1978-79 is actually the 13th wettest winter on record. I suspect its the only winter with a CET that is less than 2C to be in the top 50 wettest winters on record.