Autumn and Winter

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

"A cold January, many Internet tipples will reap "

Well known South Devon weather lore.

Paul

Paul

early spot....Russian HP retrogrades towards Greenland, LP on southerly track...coldest and snowiest section of winter...new year to first 10 days of Jan.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

The forecast is for neither, with the exception of December (the N-D-J period). The forecast is for a slightly above average or close to average winter post-December, probably more the former due to the evident mildness forecast in Europe at this time.

How can you back up your assertion for a "very cold February" when:

1. Most forecast models (i.e.: TWOs, the French MetO.'s, and I think they may be another) are forecasting a rather strong "mild or very mild" (I believe) signal for February?,

2. Our winters have been a lot milder of late, like the last one?

However, I do agree that February along with perhaps slightly more prominently December has also shown a slight "cooling trend" over our recent winters since about 2003. An exceptionally mild February would indeed certainly break this trend, as would this rumoured "very cold" January. Even if it was just one "stand-out" cold spell like January 1987 in an otherwise mild month CET wise (which would still be possible if we had very mild south and south-westerly winds predominating for the rest of the time), it would still break the trend. Even a smaller winter 1995/96-type snow event would.

A warm September and then a cold October has historically been the harbinger of a cooler than normal winter for the UK? Where do you get this evidence from?

To be fair the closest evidence I have seen does not back up my assertion of "a cooler and wetter than average September + a warmer and drier than average October = a winter on the cool or colder side of average" either, but that the results are more "inconclusive" than anything else. As a small aside, I think this is also more so for September and November. Ask Kevin Bradshaw (Mr_Data) if you want the figures.

Some strange conclusions but insightful as always.

My teleconnection forecast points to a very cold February at this preliminary stage.

I will also be releasing a seasonal forecast similar to that of my Autumn forecast based on anologues from August to October, the most favoured anologues at the moment are 1977, 1995 and 2004, these all back up my preliminary indications of a cold February, i should of added that i expect both December and January to be slighly below average.

Here is the link to my preliminary anologues, these will be narrowed down as time progresses...

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...31951&st=34

TWO base their forecast on pattern matching, somewhat similar to Ian Brown. The French Met Office back their operational run of six ensembles.

Snowiless does not mean milder.

Personally, i do not buy into the cold January/mild February, people are basing this on the fact that we have a weak El Nino, what people must remember is that at weak to moderate strength, El Nino will not be a leading mode for this winter, it will most likley be around the middle of the list of most important factors. (i.e. it is weak enougth for other signals to overide it.

As for the warm September/cold October statisitics, thery are in this thread...

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=32251

Paul

early spot....Russian HP retrogrades towards Greenland, LP on southerly track...coldest and snowiest section of winter...new year to first 10 days of Jan.

BFTP

I am afraid that Rodger J Smith has already predicted this pattern for the whole of January, although it does increase the support for this happening.

[Big Bear]

I am afraid that Rodger J Smith has already predicted this pattern for the whole of January, although it does increase the support for this happening.

..Who is Roger J Smith and can you send a link to this prediction for Russian HP pushing West towards Greenland in 1st half of January 2007..?

We have not seen such pressure behaviour at a northerly latitude for over 10 years in winter.

[Dawlish]

Paul

early spot....Russian HP retrogrades towards Greenland, LP on southerly track...coldest and snowiest section of winter...new year to first 10 days of Jan.

BFTP

Goodness! That is an early spot! Worth a punt? Me, I think it is just a guess, as decent as anyone else's - as I think all the LRFs for the winter still are!

Paul

[Thundery wintry showers]

If you don't have a cold enough source or long enough track over the Atlantic, you end up with only localised, marginal snow events:

Apologies everyone- noticed a very embarrasing typo in there.

It should say "short" enough track over the Atlantic- the longer the airmass spends over the sea, generally speaking, the more it is modified towards warmer temperatures.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=32251

I am afraid that Rodger J Smith has already predicted this pattern for the whole of January, although it does increase the support for this happening.

[Dawlish]

BFTP

Paul

Yep, what odds and double G&T on it?

BFTP

Look at the odds table on my bets thread for Jan CET odds BFTP!

Paul

[frozencanals]

Hi All

Well I've been looking out for the first snow falls coming down through Finland and today it is snowing in NE Finland and as far south as the Levi Ski areas though its not settling around there..

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/frames/kelikamerat-frame.html

Cheers

FC

[Big Bear]

Hi All

Well I've been looking out for the first snow falls coming down through Finland and today it is snowing in NE Finland and as far south as the Levi Ski areas though its not settling around there..

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/frames/kelikamerat-frame.html

Cheers

FC

Nothing but Sun & dry scenes with average temps of 14 degrees C on those cameras.

[frozencanals]

Nothing but Sun & dry scenes with average temps of 14 degrees C on those cameras.

You have to select the northern sector first, it always default to the south, then look at the northern most cameras

FC

[Big Bear]

You have to select the northern sector first, it always default to the south, then look at the northern most cameras

FC

I did, still warm & sunny so it seems.

So whos looking forward to the Met Office first in-depth winter LRF tomorrow morning?

Whats the bets the word 'cold' or 'colder' don't even feature at all?

I reckon they'll go mild & westerly dominated, with wet periods throughout Dec/ Jan/ Feb.

[Guest Viking141]

Im looking forward to it because I felt that they were very good last year - pretty accurate.

What I expect this year is for them to say something along the lines of "average to slightly above average temps" and "wetter than last year."

Wetter than last year would actually be good news if more precipiation were combined with significant Northerly and Easterly blasts as we would all see some decent snowfall.

From my own perspective last year, snow wise, was pretty good. Much more like winters past and much better than the year before, which in itself, was better than the year before that. Given that last year was pretty "dry" if last years synoptics were repeated with more precipitation then I for one would be pretty happy!

Edited September 20, 2006 by Viking141

[beng]

I did, still warm & sunny so it seems.

try this

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/kelikamerat/LQ201653.jpg

:blink:

[Big Bear]

try this

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/kelikamerat/LQ201653.jpg

Crikey! thats a white out! :blink: :o

[tinybill]

Hi All

Well I've been looking out for the first snow falls coming down through Finland and today it is snowing in NE Finland and as far south as the Levi Ski areas though its not settling around there..

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/frames/kelikamerat-frame.html

Cheers

FC

thanks for the link i lost it last year many thanks :o

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Gloom, gloom, gloom. Metcheck's 8-14 day forecast gives night-time temps of 12>16C right into early October. :o

[shuggee]

Don't forget the Meto's initial winter forecast is published tomorrow. Don't know what time - but I'm sure it'll be posted all over the forum within minutes :o

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Don't forget the Meto's initial winter forecast is published tomorrow. Don't know what time - but I'm sure it'll be posted all over the forum within minutes :o

10 o'clock this morning- much awaited

SNOW-MAN2006

[Anti-Mild]

10 o'clock this morning- much awaited

SNOW-MAN2006

Can everyone please bear in mind that if the MetO produce a forecast pointing towards a mild and wet winter it doesn't mean that it will be mild and wet.

Of course the opposite applies; if they forecast cold and snowy it's still way to early to break out the champagne :o !

AM

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Can everyone please bear in mind that if the MetO produce a forecast pointing towards a mild and wet winter it doesn't mean that it will be mild and wet.

Of course the opposite applies; if they forecast cold and snowy it's still way to early to break out the champagne :o !

AM

METO: UK Winter will be wetter than last year and mild indicative of a positive NAO. Coolest in the north, milder in the south...how mild dependant on how often Sarah 'Grand Daughter of Bartlett' WILMSHURST provides the countryfile forecast...potential four month SW'ly spell approaching "at least"

BFTP

[VillagePlank]

I'm looking forward to the MetO first intial thoughts for this winter. My guess? I've no idea :o

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Doing some assessments on my method and I am particularly interested in early next month which could bring some interesting weather. I am looking at around the 8th October to be a pretty 'lively' period for the Uk. I expect a strong block to be in position and I think it will be over Greenland with the breakdown of the euro block allowing LPS to crash over us. This I will watch and may bring the onset of a wet month.

BFTP

Edited September 21, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[yido]

As we wait some may be interested in this. It's located in Kiruna in Northern Sweden and having spoken to someone today from there they are so depressed we have these temps in September and they have this!

http://webcam.linnea.net/view/view.shtml

[Hiya]

thats excellent, i like webcams that are nearly real time. hehe i saw an old lada with a black reek coming out of the back that would tire fire to shame

yeah and the snow was good too

[Damien]

Ian Currie talks about December:

http://icsurreyonline.icnetwork.co.uk/0100...-name_page.html

Mr Currie said: "We are not out of the woods by any means. The recent rain hasn't done anything really because we have had two dry years and two dry winters.

"And I think December maybe dryer than average.If it is, that will be a very serious problem, that is not good for any area that relies on 80 percent underwater supplies."

So he is still expecting a "maybe dryer than average" December - no word on snowfall yet. If he is still forecasting a much drier than average winter overall then this will be a stark contrast to the Met Office's seeming "uncertainty" over precipitation in this coming season.

He also says somewhere else that "These are interesting times" when talking about this unusually warm September. Read into that what you will.

It will be interesting to see if the Martin Mallett monthly CET update in the next 0-15 days or so backs this up.