Carribean

[summer blizzard]

As the other threads are being clogged up with people talking about Carribean systems, i thought that i would open this thread.

Since Hurricane Ernesto, we have not had any invests in the Gulf Of Mexico, and i thought that i would try and explain why.

Since Hurricane Ernesto, we have seen the persistance of a surface high which effectively means that while all other factors for development are there, effectively, the Gulf Of Mexico is full of dry air (realative), as indicated by the high DAM values on the chart below...

This effectively means that no significant convection can occur.

Luckily, the weakness caused by Tropical Storm Helene should in combination with a pattern change over the USA, cause the Gulf Of Mexico to become much more favourable for development in around a week, as illustrated by the chart below.

I have identified the system which we need to watch, however it will have to stay weak so as not to get caught by any weaknedd present in the central Atlantic.

Edited September 14, 2006 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

I have a question, there is currently diffluence in the western Carribean, is this good or bad for Tropical development as we have two tropical wave in that vicinity, i take diffluence to mean a split Jet Stream although i could be wrong.