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What does El Nino mean for the UK Winter? (Merged)


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El Nino has nothing at all to do with weather; in fact it's all spaceships. If you haven't figured that one out, then how do you explain the apparent SST correlation with the moon?

The El Nino of 1997-1998 was a strong one and its effects were felt in Europe with Snow and record low temps my friend,if this years is weak its effects will be localised to those areas closest to it so when you say it has nothing to do with the weather you are wrong i am afraid,i am NO expert in the weather but since the MetO relesed its revised forecast for the winter and used El Nino as a basis for this i have done a LOT of surfing on the web and read up about it i suggest you do the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
The El Nino of 1997-1998 was a strong one and its effects were felt in Europe with Snow and record low temps my friend,if this years is weak its effects will be localised to those areas closest to it so when you say it has nothing to do with the weather you are wrong i am afraid,i am NO expert in the weather but since the MetO relesed its revised forecast for the winter and used El Nino as a basis for this i have done a LOT of surfing on the web and read up about it i suggest you do the same.
There doesn't seem to be too many articles linking weather to spaceships. Perhaps I'll look harder next time :)
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
There doesn't seem to be too many articles linking weather to spaceships. Perhaps I'll look harder next time :)

naughty boy Mr W.!!

Mr B.B., I'm not too convinced that we truly can predict, with any confidence, the scale of the developing ENSO event. The NHC had to revise down it's Hurricane forcast for this year because of the effects on the developing event (upper level shear unfavourable to storm development?) so they hadn't 'seen it coming' and they are part of the NOAA!!! The fact that our own MetO also hadn't taken into account the developing El-Nino in their earlier forcast would suggest that their models let them down badly too. To now have these agencies talking with such confidence about something that they appear to have missed earlier in the year makes me wonder how much 'hind casting' is in their current 'forcast' of this years El-Nino.

In the light of the 'alleged' accelerated global climate change we maybe have to accept that future events will not be effectively forcast using models that are becoming redundant within months of being declared 'operational'. We are entering the predicted period of 'extreme events' where the planet does her best to 'even out' the new, larger global differences in temp and I think we are all on a rapid 'learning curve' of the impact that these 'new synoptics' will bring, a period where common sense will probably be the best rule of thumb to temper any forcasts with.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Gray-Wolf, anologues are the best thing to go with at the moment and point to a weak/moderate El Nino during Autumn and a weak/neutral El Nino during winter.

As for the NOAA and Met Office having to revise there forecasts, that is because their method of calling an El Nino event is flawed, they base their descriptions of El Nino events entirely on sea surface temperatures in one region, while many other people were calling the vent months ahead, by looking at the MEI.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

September's MEI confirms we are on course for the desired weak to moderate strength event with most pleasingly no evidence of strong event in the offing.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

pieces of the winter jigsaw now beginning to fall into place.

GP

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September's MEI confirms we are on course for the desired weak to moderate strength event with most pleasingly no evidence of strong event in the offing.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

pieces of the winter jigsaw now beginning to fall into place.

GP

:) And your guess is.............? I have read some peoples thoughts saying that the current setup indicates a SEVERE cold spell coming whilst yet others say NO it will not be too bad really and both sides produce links to page after page of facts and figures which go WAY over my head as im new to this so PLEASE in plain english will you or someone please tell me what the heck the jigsaw you describe means in actual physical weather patterns??? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Now let's not run down our MetO alone for not spotting/noting the current weak El-Nino in its embryonic stages! I remember a press release by NASA/NOAA outlining why a La-Nina year wasn't going to impact on the Hurricane season. No mention that La-Nina was to be swapped for El-Nino in less than 3 months there!

As to what it means for winter I think we may all be on a learening curve as many climate events are dropped at El-nino's door but ,due to it's (El -Nino) complex nature , we cannot really forcast which 'effects' will present strongest.

Nasa/NOAA are keeping a close eye on the development of warmer water /increased height of waters in the Eastern Pacific and though they note that at present the event is weak (compared to 1997's 'super El-Nino'???) they do not rule out it developing into a strong event.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

and though they note that at present the event is weak (compared to 1997's 'super El-Nino'???) they do not rule out it developing into a strong event.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The best matches taking both August and September into account are:

2004

2002

1994

1979

1977

1963

1951

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

On Aug 10th the preceding anomalies had NASA/NOAA predicting a mild El-Nino was 50% possible by Jan. 4 weeks later they were declaring a mild El-Nino existed at that time (0.5*C widely across the areas measured).

We are now at 0.5*c to 0.9*c above normal across the areas measured and more to follow. If it follows a typical El-Nino you wouldn't expect the waters to warm significantly before December/Jan so it looks likely that it'll be a 'moderate/strong event by the time december arrives. I would have a lot more faith in current predictions if they were'nt on the back of such dodgy earlier analysis.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The current El Nino is weak, and has been for the past three months, growing at a rate of 0.1C or 0.2C per month, all anologues indicate that the EL nino will peak this Autumn and weaken during winter as an La Nino develops next spring.

Calls for a moderate El Nino are perhaps justified, calling for a strong El Nino is just plain exaguration.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

September's MEI value was 0.892, and a value of somewhere between 1 and 1.5 looks a very strong candidate for our DJF calculations - weak to moderate category.

GP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Calls for a moderate El Nino are perhaps justified, calling for a strong El Nino is just plain exaguration.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I would suggest that we all fully aquaint ourselves with both the 'historical' records of this current ENSO event and also the current data before dismissing it as a non-event/weak event .

As posted earlier the bodies we trust to advise us of such changes have not been very sucessful so far in predicting its onset (the El-Nino conditions) being 4 months awry on there August predictions. The earlier reasoning had La Nina dominating Hurricane season (with press releases explaining how it wouldn't affect Hurricane frequency) only for El-Nino to quickly establish and ,with the help of SAL, quash all Storm activity leaving a lot of heat still in the oceans with its influence ready to warm up our more northern climes (watch the west Atlantic anamolies over Oct/Nov).

As a measure we could always equate last years hurricane season to last years weather patterns here and see what such a drastic reduction in 'canes this year would mean to our own weather.

Talks of a 'pattern shift' over the last 18 months were OK until the onset of El-Nino conditions but since they established we must 'reset' our climate counter ready for the 'new' patterns.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I would suggest that we all fully aquaint ourselves with both the 'historical' records of this current ENSO event and also the current data before dismissing it as a non-event/weak event .

As posted earlier the bodies we trust to advise us of such changes have not been very sucessful so far in predicting its onset (the El-Nino conditions) being 4 months awry on there August predictions. The earlier reasoning had La Nina dominating Hurricane season (with press releases explaining how it wouldn't affect Hurricane frequency) only for El-Nino to quickly establish and ,with the help of SAL, quash all Storm activity leaving a lot of heat still in the oceans with its influence ready to warm up our more northern climes (watch the west Atlantic anamolies over Oct/Nov).

As a measure we could always equate last years hurricane season to last years weather patterns here and see what such a drastic reduction in 'canes this year would mean to our own weather.

Talks of a 'pattern shift' over the last 18 months were OK until the onset of El-Nino conditions but since they established we must 'reset' our climate counter ready for the 'new' patterns.

GW

I have to say that is a decent post. As to its effects well the strength of it AND the timing of its peak will be the important factor. These bodies are also the same bodies that promote 2-5C global rise...if they can't get this right how can one 'trust' they got the next century right :) You can't can you.

It will be interesting to keep watch on the ENSO. So far the pattern has not changed..next week projects continuation of blocking. If it remains weak to moderate then from that particular signal we 'should' be OK.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

2004

2002

1994

1979

1977

1963

1951

Of those anologues, which are all a match for August and September, only 2002 and 1994 had a moderate El Nino during winter, i should of reveiwed this before making my previous statement.

In all those anologues, the peak was no later than January.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

From last weeks sst plots there is a sizeable body of water, with positive sst anomalies of between 1.5 and 3.5*c just off Equitorial S. America for the week ending 14/10/06 and a large pool of waters, just crossing the international date line, that is currently 30*c+ .

Northern Australian waters and the waters around Indonesia are now showing quite marked negative sst anomalies.

I still think that the Developing El-Nino will be upgraded to a Moderate to strong event before December of this year. If the body of equitorial waters crossing the I.D.L. is moving to the East then this will be at the South American coast well before christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

GrayWolf, of the anologues i posted, four of them did peak at moderate strength, so i agree with you on that one however i feel that overall this winter will see a weak El Nino, with El Nino peaking in November.

I forgot to point out that this month is likely to come in at 1.1, moderate El Nino strength.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
GrayWolf, of the anologues i posted, four of them did peak at moderate strength, so i agree with you on that one however i feel that overall this winter will see a weak El Nino, with El Nino peaking in November.

I forgot to point out that this month is likely to come in at 1.1, moderate El Nino strength.

Developments?

sst_anom.gif

Now it seems to me that the warm waters off West coast of South America are pulling away...possible signs of El Nino stabilising/weakening. Also SST around Lapland are now showing signs of -ve anomaly.

Look at the Atlantic to our west...no wonder LP is anchored there

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

It still looks unfavourable for winter to me, extremely warm which controls an active atlantic season. It looks like it's kikcing off big time.

I expect the sea surfaces + anomaly will be broken again this year.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Glacier Point, i was wondering if you had any data in association with the link between El Nino and a westerly QBO.

The main effects of both of these are felt in the tropics with increased trade winds (sheer), and i was wondering whether one was a leading mode of the other and also whehter they have the effect of keeping the ITCZ south of its normal position.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Just thought i'd say that i have noticed a cooling of sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific basin, indicating that El Nino will either of peaked or peak next month.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

October has verified extremely well in terms of expected circulatory patterns based on El Nino's with a MEI of between 0.5 and 1.5.

500 hPa Geopot. height anomalies

Predicted:

Observed:

generally quite representative, particularly for western Europe and the east Atlantic.The blocking over NE Canada is obvioulsy stronger although not directly related to ENSO.

200 hPa zonal wind anomalies

Predicted:

Observed:

Once again, not bad and picks out the increased strength of the sub-tropical jet across the Atlantic already - a lot earlier than the composite years suggest.

MSLP anomalies

Predicted:

Observed:

very good agreement on the pattern for western Europe, N. America less so related to notable cold incursion.

but the real pattern match, 850 hPa Vector wind anomalies

Predicted:

Observed:

Confirmation that a weak becoming moderate El Nino has begun to impact on the hemispheric pressure patterns and will continue to do so, playing a leading role in determining the winter to come.

I'm struck also by the strength of the anomalies suggestive that the gradients between cold and warm, high and low pressure are very much more intense this year compared to the composites. This is evidence possibly for a more extreme type reaction within the climatic system to ENSO and possibly the polar air masses this year.

GP

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