Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[SMU]

It will matter I'm afraid Tamara - for the reaons I have mentioned before. The seas around us will be storing all of this very late warmth and will not even yet beginning their very slow cool down. The latent heat provided will warm any cold air (from whatever source) advancing upon us. It is, in my opinion (even if I am out on my own) a major contributory factor to our mild winters.

Moose

Hi UK moose-

The seas around the UK are certainly warm at the moment, perhaps 2/3 above normal- & this is certainly inline with the waters in Central Europe-

We must however maintain the distinctions between weather patterns that are effected by SST's & Actual weather modified by the SST Pattern-

The shallow waters around the uk have very little effect on the overall pattern apart from 'perhaps' influencing the scale at whcih a small feature may develop-

Illustrated here is the SST profile for 11/03/06-

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060312.gif

As you can see local SST's are below normal-

So saying that SST's ( Locally) are cause & effect of a milder winter is probably incorrect, obviously examining the wider picture you will know that events like El Nino DO have pattern changing effects-

What we can summize from anonamously high local SST's as we head towards winter is they WILL modify the lower layers of the atmoshphere when a Cold flow does actually set up- This is ESPECIALLY important if we end up with a 'slack' Northerly or slack Easterly

as the mixing will be more substantial & will apply an upward trend to the surface temperature-

This is why last years Northerly in November was relativley unmodified because the surface flow from the North East was so fast the was little in the way of mixing-

In terms of losing those +ve local anomalies the fastest way is NOT a very cold upper air ( although that helps) but deep low pressure systems causing upwelling of the surface layers- remember these warm anomalies are not all the way down to the bottom of the subsurface, just the first few Meters....

Steve

Edited October 22, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Dawlish]

Don't you just love the Met? I'm sure many people will already know about this, but it gives a decent summary of what to expect. The concentration is on air masses rather than ice levels, but there is a good explanation of the importance of the SSTs. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/unde...ritain_01.shtml

(Don't miss out parts 2 & 3 as well).

The discussion refers to some recent historical examples of cold snaps & snowfall, so it could be useful for someone to look at the ice conditions for those years and compare them to the current situation.

That's the best I can do so far as far as the Arctic influence on us is concerned, but I'm still looking.

:)P

Thanks PM3. It doesn't really say much more than you'd get with "A" level standard meteorology, though it's a good introduction to air masses. The thing that stands out for me (competely off-topic, I know) and dates the met's article to a textbook summary, is in Part 2:

"Last and least common over the British Isles is the tropical continental air from the south, originating from North Africa."

Not recently and certainly not this year it wasn't!

Paul

PS I'm still looking too, but the lack of info points to a lack of connection between Arctic ice coverage and a direct, measurable, effect on our winter weather. More and more, I feel that there isn't one. That leaves us with a tenuous connection. That makes me wonder why, more than a very interesting excercise (and it is, I find it fascinating), we are concentrating so many winter hopes on ice build-up to our North.

Edited October 22, 2006 by Dawlish

[carinthian]

Greetings everyone,

Busy on this thread this morning with a great range of posts. Hve enjoyed reading them all. Getting back on track to what is happeneing now , I have just checked out the Icelandic and DMI forecasts for the coming weekend. Both are going for substained Arctic outbreak. A snow event moving south out of Iceland by weekend followed by Northerlies and -10C temps. Even Scoresby forecasting temps down to -23C Friday. Some forecast models may pick up on this later today but the big one holds back . Could be interesting. Any views from our 7 day forecast pundits ?

C

[ukmoose]

Hi UK moose-

The seas around the UK are certainly warm at the moment, perhaps 2/3 above normal- & this is certainly inline with the waters in Central Europe-

We must however maintain the distinctions between weather patterns that are effected by SST's & Actual weather modified by the SST Pattern-

The shallow waters around the uk have very little effect on the overall pattern apart from 'perhaps' influencing the scale at whcih a small feature may develop-

Illustrated here is the SST profile for 11/03/06-

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-060312.gif

As you can see local SST's are below normal-

So saying that SST's ( Locally) are cause & effect of a milder winter is probably incorrect, obviously examining the wider picture you will know that events like El Nino DO have pattern changing effects-

What we can summize from anonamously high local SST's as we head towards winter is they WILL modify the lower layers of the atmoshphere when a Cold flow does actually set up- This is ESPECIALLY important if we end up with a 'slack' Northerly or slack Easterly

as the mixing will be more substantial & will apply an upward trend to the surface temperature-

This is why last years Northerly in November was relativley unmodified because the surface flow from the North East was so fast the was little in the way of mixing-

In terms of losing those +ve local anomalies the fastest way is NOT a very cold upper air ( although that helps) but deep low pressure systems causing upwelling of the surface layers- remember these warm anomalies are not all the way down to the bottom of the subsurface, just the first few Meters....

Steve

Hi teve,

I fully accept what you say about the broader picture. The seas around us are indeed relatively shallow and will not have anywhere near as much effect on weather (and climate) as the deeper oceans. They will not generate enough energy to drive or create weather systems.

The point I am making is that we are a very small island - nowhere more than about 100 miles or so from the sea as the crow flies. Any cold weather advancing on us has to pass across the sea to reach us. The warmer this water is, the more it can and does warm the air that reaches us. This is why we have been affected more in recent years than our neighbours on the continent who are farther from the sea and have the benfit of land cooling around them quickly when things do start to cool off. We don't have the luxury of a quickly cooling land mass; on the contary, we have an ever warming blanket of water.

If the sea temperature was lower, it would not have quite the same warming effect and we might just get snow instead of sleet or rain and some cooler night time temperatures too. This warming effect only has to be in the first few metres of water to have an effect on our small island.

I actually don't agree that last year's November temperatures were not significantly modified by the warm sea. We had some lowish temperatures yes, but not as low as one might expect. No longer in my part of the country do we get temperatures lower than minus 5 or 6 at the very lowest. Lower than that is now unheard of - even when we get the pool of cold pushing down like last November. I can't prove it, but my feeling is that before our waters warmed to the extent that they have, last November's cold spell would have brought us lower temperatures than the mins 4 or 5 that we got.

However, as always, I stand to be corrected.

Regards,

Moose

Sorry, Steve - don't know what happened to the 'S' !

Sorry, Steve - don't know what happened to the 'S' !

[carinthian]

Hi P,MM and UKM:)

There is nothing unusual indeed about cold spells either in the USA or this side of the pond at this early stage but, in the cryospheric context we are discussing, what may have some significant relevance to the current (colder than recent) arctic position is the fact that some unusually low temps have been recorded in the USA via the recent arctic plunge there.

As has been mentioned frequently on the threads, what is stopping us receiving the well of colder air to the north and our own first northerly 'salvo' of the season is the residual summer synoptical pattern courtesy of the 'thermal' Euro High which is blocking the southern and eastern inroads of polar air towards us and europe and keeeping us in warm southerlies and southwesterlies. However the big plus is that the current set-up with pressure high over Greenland, a steady stream of air direct from the pole is being maintained which is helping to promote snowcover and cold pooling in the ways described and in the regions indicated. One can see the difference between last year and this with coverage into northern scandinavia where it was absent last year (as one example)

So, the current synoptic pattern whilst it is still providing us with unseasonal warmth, it is laying good foundations to the north for a consolidated winter pool which will help induce the synoptic patterns we require to source those cold pools when winter proper comes. In this way, actually, it is a good thing that the current pattern is persisiting (for the time being). It may not be so bad if we have a continued warm end to October - but once the summer pattern is forced to give way through an overloaded thermal gradient, the High over Europe should be forced away and the pent-up cold air will flood south..

Previous warm autumns - 1978, 1981 etc have all been followed by cold winters in a similar mechanism to the present. It has to be noted of course, that significantly we are building from a lower cryospheric base-line than those winters but having said that, last winter showed that record cold pools can still occur with favourable blocking set-ups even these days. And the present position, at this stage, is an improvement from last year

Regarding SST's - as far as I understand it, as long as the present trend continues of warm anomalies over the north atlantic and cooler (or cooling) one's below then this is favourable for a negative NAO signature for the winter, which should keep low pressure tracking to the south whilst encouraging high latitude pressure building. It is true that initially any colder incursion would be modified by surrounding SST but as we saw last year this is a position that can quickly changed by a doiminant pattern change. (The surrounding seas started off the hot summer season with significant cold anomlies one should remember). Also, to pick up on uk moose's concerns - a cold arctic or polar continental set-up in winter over a 'warm' north sea is a snow lovers utiopia particulary in eastern britain

Rightly or wrongly, this is how I see it all anyway! - having also read and tried to absorb all the usual updates and information provided on here and elsewhere by the experts!

It will be interesting to see the METO's next winter update due in the next couple of weeks to see if they believe things to be still on track from their last update in September.

Tamara

. Another great example of a thorough , well composed and non- superficial post by Tamara. Love it .

C

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Paul

PS I'm still looking too, but the lack of info points to a lack of connection between Arctic ice coverage and a direct, measurable, effect on our winter weather. More and more, I feel that there isn't one. That leaves us with a tenuous connection. That makes me wonder why, more than a very interesting excercise (and it is, I find it fascinating), we are concentrating so many winter hopes on ice build-up to our North.

D,

In the great scheme of things it is relatively trivial. The northern ice has retreated a long way since the 1960s, so arguing the toss about a slightly better picture, or worse picture, here or there is rather like a potential bankrupt, with debts running to tens of thousands, getting picky over a penny or two. It's of interest, but so are storms in the atmosphere of Jupiter.

THere's a lot of straw clutching going on in here, which would not be out of place in a book I'm reading just now recalling famous experiments in psychology. The content of the chapter on cults, and the extents to which a group of individuals can sometimes go (e.g. the martians are coming tomorrow) to maintain their beliefs, irrespective of whether or not they get what they hope for, has an uncanny similarity to some of the discussion on here extrapolating from one factual event to another future potential event.

There is a lot more very warm water around us, and all of it is nearer, than any of the far away polar ice. If nothing else, it is going to be a big modifier of air mass. What's more, irrespective of ice mass formation at the pole, the latest anomalies for much of the polar region, like last year, as widely 9-15C above the norm. Not good.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

D,

In the great scheme of things it is relatively trivial. The northern ice has retreated a long way since the 1960s, so arguing the toss about a slightly better picture, or worse picture, here or there is rather like a potential bankrupt, with debts running to tens of thousands, getting picky over a penny or two. It's of interest, but so are storms in the atmosphere of Jupiter.

THere's a lot of straw clutching going on in here, which would not be out of place in a book I'm reading just now recalling famous experiments in psychology. The content of the chapter on cults, and the extents to which a group of individuals can sometimes go (e.g. the martians are coming tomorrow) to maintain their beliefs, irrespective of whether or not they get what they hope for, has an uncanny similarity to some of the discussion on here extrapolating from one factual event to another future potential event.

There is a lot more very warm water around us, and all of it is nearer, than any of the far away polar ice. If nothing else, it is going to be a big modifier of air mass. What's more, irrespective of ice mass formation at the pole, the latest anomalies for much of the polar region, like last year, as widely 9-15C above the norm. Not good.

SF

Can you post and show the 'much of the polar region' that is 9-15c above the norm? ......

You may be right, it may not have any bearing but there are plenty who suggest it does and I will tend to the side that it does. It is discussion and not straw clutching. The Urals are an awful long way from the UK, North Africa is an awful long way from the UK, the US is and so on and so on but we 'experience' influences from all And just another reminder the 30s and 40s saw the arctic over 1C anomalously warmer than present day......not good

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SMU]

D,

In the great scheme of things it is relatively trivial. The northern ice has retreated a long way since the 1960s, so arguing the toss about a slightly better picture, or worse picture, here or there is rather like a potential bankrupt, with debts running to tens of thousands, getting picky over a penny or two. It's of interest, but so are storms in the atmosphere of Jupiter.

THere's a lot of straw clutching going on in here, which would not be out of place in a book I'm reading just now recalling famous experiments in psychology. The content of the chapter on cults, and the extents to which a group of individuals can sometimes go (e.g. the martians are coming tomorrow) to maintain their beliefs, irrespective of whether or not they get what they hope for, has an uncanny similarity to some of the discussion on here extrapolating from one factual event to another future potential event.

There is a lot more very warm water around us, and all of it is nearer, than any of the far away polar ice. If nothing else, it is going to be a big modifier of air mass. What's more, irrespective of ice mass formation at the pole, the latest anomalies for much of the polar region, like last year, as widely 9-15C above the norm. Not good.

HI SF,

We do often agree on varying points around the weather- however Ive got to disagree with that summation-

Straw clutching is rather an overstatement considering the Cryosphere is one of the key winter drivers- You seem to assume that the slightly warmer waters around the UK are more important to the hemespheric evolution that the Cryosphere, or even implying that they are more inportant to the 'uk' because of the close proximity rather than the cryosphere is being slighty dismissive of how things actually work in the winter-

If you were asked the question - what would be the number 1 requirement for the UK to sustain a cold below ave winter- the immeadiate answer would be... Oh the SST's around the UK- no.....

It would be the prevailing flow arriving via A northerly or Easterly locale- So your dismissal of the relashonship of the Cryosphere/AO condition & the Uk being less of a driver than the SSTs becomes rather muted-

Not that the AO is the be all & end All, However the OVERALL relashonship of -AO having a linear correlation of +0.7 to a -NAO & the

-NAO correlating VERY high to a cold UK winter then you begin to see the importance of the starting point in the chain-

Straw clutching- No-

Over Hyping- No-

Heres a chart that Hart ( 9inchinails prepared for eastern US)-

its the winters that followed from Northern Hemisphere Sept-Nov Snowcover expanses that were greater than 1SD from the mean-

As you can see the NH blocking is considerable- remember this doesnt guarentee the UK Cold- but certainly ensures the pressure belts are far more condusive to cold than years where the pressure belts are inverse to the graph presented-

S

Edited October 22, 2006 by Steve Murr

[mickpips]

Hi Steve and All ,

Generally I sit on the fence and 'try' to take it all in. From my view there are always the ones that will argue black is white etc etc. But I am glad you responded to SF's last post as I found it extremely strange he would post such thoughts , I am but an amateur but fully understand the influence the Cryosphere can have not only on our weather but that generally across the northern hemisphere. How anybody can deny such is beyond me. Its like saying putting two cubes of ice into a glass of Jack Daniels instead of one makes no apparent difference.

The cryosphere and ice extent has a major bearing on many of the hemispheres weather conditions , from radiation absorbtion to localised temperatures right through to pressure anomalies.

As I think you posted Steve , localised SST's will have little bearing on Artic plumes southwards and no effect dependant on the height.

Regards

Edited October 22, 2006 by mickpips

[carinthian]

SF

Can you post and show the 'much of the polar region' that is 9-15c above the norm? ......

You may be right, it may not have any bearing. It is discussion and not straw clutching. The Urals are an awful long way from the UK, North Africa is an awful long way from the UK, the US is and so on and so on but we 'experience' influences from all And just another reminder the 30s and 40s saw the arctic over 1C anomalously warmer than present day......not good

BFTP

After a run of cold winters during the 60s in the United Kingdom ,the Arctic Sea ice reached its closest position to our shores in the Spring of 1968 ( the most southerly limited for 50 years according to weather log ship reports ).

A rapid return of the polar ice occurred following a consecutive run of 5 very mild (UK)winters 1971-75. This contraction peaked in the Spring of 1976 ( less than the past 5 years ). So more ice development nearer to the British Isles means colder winters here ! The early polar ice growth is greater this year in the the Arctic waters closest to the British Isles.

C

[Dawlish]

After a run of cold winters during the 60s in the United Kingdom ,the Arctic Sea ice reached its closest position to our shores in the Spring of 1968 ( the most southerly limited for 50 years according to weather log ship reports ).

A rapid return of the polar ice occurred following a consecutive run of 5 very mild (UK)winters 1971-75. This contraction peaked in the Spring of 1976 ( less than the past 5 years ). So more ice development nearer to the British Isles means colder winters here ! The early polar ice growth is greater this year in the the Arctic waters closest to the British Isles.

C

If that holds true, the obvious questions are why wasn't ice cover at it's greatest in 1962/3 and why wasn't there a jump in 1980/81, 1984/5, or 1985/6 ? Why wasn't ice cover greater in 1995/6 than at any time since - as that was a colder winter?

The graphs on the met office site, clearly show that 1995-6 had the lowest extent of Arctic ever, up to 2001 (the graphs end there and the record has been well beaten since). Dec-Jan 1995-6 was the coldest winter period in the last 19 years.

http://www.metoffice.com/education/higher/...ate_change.html

Although the relationship seems completely obvious, polar ice/cold and our latitudes have a much more complex relationship than is being proposed here. SF is entirely right in his judgements.

More ice development in Arctic areas nearest to the British Isles is very unlikely to mean colder winters here.

Paul

Edited October 22, 2006 by Dawlish

[kold weather]

In terms of Artic temp, certainly areas such as west Greenland and east Canada are a good 10C above average at least at 850hpa however intrestingly the areas that concern us with a northerly ar epresently below average and the models keep this for a few more days at least which will hlep the sea ice amounts somewhat.

Prehaps it might be a good idea to see why this summer has been so warm, and the main driving factors have been the Azores low and alsohe Scandi high, which in the winter, given a slight shifting is suddenly a decent winter set-up as well. In quite a few of those warm summer/cold winter and cold winter-warm summer years we've seen that same sort of feature.

Sea ice development is better this year then last year, esp in Russia and places like that, and this area of the world is key if we are to have the AO on our side for this winter. I personally think there ar eother factors that are of more importance then the SST's in one area of the world but I do think that the SST's may well have an impac ton the likelyhood of a negative NAO this winter.

Also just one last point that GP raised a few weeks ago. We are now getting close to the point that rather then looking for below average spots of water, we should be looking at less above average area sof water. I am of the idea that its the SSTA PATTERN that can make a difference to pressure cells, so therefore surely we are going to get the point where we are looking at the pattern distrubtion of the above average waters.

Edited October 22, 2006 by kold weather

[The Eagle]

Hi,

Im not going to go in to specific Ice reports but rather keep it simpler:

Last year:

This year:

We are ahead in terms of cold pooling and there-fore I would suggest we are in a better posistion then this time last year though there are plenty of variables. This correlates quite well to the small improvement in Ice cover though its relevance is questionable. Im quite happy atm tbh

[Dawlish]

We can't get away from the land and sea based temperature anomalies around in the Northern Hemisphere. There is simply a lot more heat around in the modern climate - how much this drives the synoptics is very much an open question.

I agree entirely Ian, but there may be much more of an underlying drive than people are prepared to admit and that may be a factor in the lack of accuracy in winter forecasting.

Paul

[kold weather]

Ian, i'm not sure about Eastern Europe but for much of Russia it was confirmed as being record cold, esp in Siberia. It was way below average for the time of year even for there. In Moscow for example the 20th was the coldest day in Moscow for 26 years, and in Riga it was the coldest Jan day for 100 years.

Even compared to the great cold pools in the past this one was impressive.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ian, i'm not sure about Eastern Europe but for much of Russia it was confirmed as being record cold, esp in Siberia. It was way below average for the time of year even for there. In Moscow for example the 20th was the coldest day in Moscow for 26 years, and in Riga it was the coldest Jan day for 100 years.

Even compared to the great cold pools in the past this one was impressive.

Yes

Western Siberia was record cold and Moscow coldest since 1927. Czech Republic hit record cold.

BFTP

[Evo]

I thought I would lob this paper into the pot - I'm wading through it now. It looks into the current methods being investigated for hindcasting (and therefore in the future forecasting) the winter NAO index based on several variables, not just SSTs. The authors mention Northern Hemisphere snow cover as a variable giving significant skill (in the statistical sense). The paper seems pretty relevant to the current discussion and although typically terse, is an interesting reading IMO.

http://climate.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/Fletche...unders.2005.pdf

[carinthian]

Yes

Western Siberia was record cold and Moscow coldest since 1927. Czech Republic hit record cold.

BFTP

Hi BFTP,

and in my part of Austria one of the coldest and snowiest for nearly 30 years !

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi BFTP,

and in my part of Austria one of the coldest and snowiest for nearly 30 years !

C

Hi Carinth

Indeed, hope for more this winter....St Anton in Jan for me I can't keep away from Austria

BFTP

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth

Indeed, hope for more this winter....St Anton in Jan for me I can't keep away from Austria

BFTP

hi BFTP,

Love Austria been every year since 1975 apart from Malta posting. I have a chalet on Katschberg Mountain in the Hohe Tauren range which I bought last year with great views of Gross Glockner and the glacier. Spend hours in awe just look at it. My wife thinks I am mad .Have skied in Lech and Zurs in the Arlberg but not St Anton but good snow conditions is usually assured on the Valluga.

Cheers

C

[Nick F]

Ian, i'm not sure about Eastern Europe but for much of Russia it was confirmed as being record cold, esp in Siberia. It was way below average for the time of year even for there. In Moscow for example the 20th was the coldest day in Moscow for 26 years, and in Riga it was the coldest Jan day for 100 years.

Even compared to the great cold pools in the past this one was impressive.

Yes, some places in Eastern Europe and Russia were 5C below the 1971-2000 average as the temp anomaly chart for Jan 2006 below shows:

Some places near Moscow got down to -34C on the morning of the 18th Jan '06:

Summary of the severe winter weather over Europe and Asia in Jan '06:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...rds.html#Winter

[kold weather]

I think when it comes down to cold weather, its not so much that its not there, because clearly in regards to Russia it had some record cold last winter. The problem for us is that the amount of this very intense cold is far less then say 30 years ago which makes it harder for one little island to get it.

Nick, that chart is intresting and its also to see that while russia and Europe was pretty cold USA matches us in terms of its warmth!

Still its impressive to see just how accurate the Met office predictions for Europe wer elast year as it looks nearly identicle to that chart.

Anyway I think its just aobut time to lock this thread as we start to head into the deep part of Autumn where all will become clear.