Carinthian's Latest Arctic Reports Thread 2

[Dawlish]

Irrespective of different perspectives - Carinthian, thanks as usual for your reportings which I'm sure no-one will dispute. You always report things as they are and your most recent findings are indeed encouraging indeed.

Regarding NAO, there is little doubt that positive cycles are bound to increase the risk of arctic warming as sub-tropical flow is pumped further north due to the PFJ shifting further north. The converse will hold true with -NAO cycles. It will explain the very different position of arctic ice at the end of the 1960's after a decade dominated by -NAO winters and not uncoincidentally some very cold winters in that decade.

I think more emphasis on other drivers such as teleconnections and synoptic patterns in this discussion, as well as other threads, is necessary and would be beneficial - and not just the banging of the environmental GW/AGW drum. The two are separate issues and whilst they do interweave in terms of causes and effects they also still have separate effects on our weather, and in turn the situation (on topic) in the arctic.

:lol:

Tamara

Do you think the only influence on Arctic ice cover is almospheric in origin, then Snowp? What happens if ice development is hampered by a warmer ocean? Would a negative cycle of the NAO be bound to decrease warming and increase ice build up under those conditions?

Paul

[West is Best]

Carinthian, thanks as usual for your reportings which I'm sure no-one will dispute. You always report things as they are

Nah ... I dispute them! I like Carinth's work, but he's got a bias (as we all have) and is looking for certain outcomes. Reports on 'seeing things as they are' require many pairs of eyes, a range of different measures and many types of analyses. Carinthian, for all his star qualities, does not have all these. Nor does any one person on here.

[SMU]

Nah ... I dispute them! I like Carinth's work, but he's got a bias (as we all have) and is looking for certain outcomes. Reports on 'seeing things as they are' require many pairs of eyes, a range of different measures and many types of analyses. Carinthian, for all his star qualities, does not have all these. Nor does any one person on here.

Thats a bit arrogent west especially in a field where knowledge is quite low-

For someone who used to work with the Met office you would tend to believe his judgement- the same as people like John Holmes & Philip Eden- bias or not he reports things as they are.....

S

Edited September 28, 2006 by Steve Murr

[Anti-Mild]

Thats a bit arrogent west especially in a field where knowledge is quite low-

For someone who used to work with the Met office you would tend to believe his judgement- the same as people like John Holmes & Philip Eden- bias or not he reports things as they are.....

S

I agree Steve, but I think Carinthian falls into the same category as Francis Wilson and Rob McElwee; very professional but they do have certain 'preferences' when it comes to the weather.

So I agree that Carinthian presents the reports accurately but I agree with West in that he does let his cold ramping side show from time to time, not that there's anything wrong with that :lol: !!!!

AM

[Dawlish]

It could work the other way and the water warming may be hampered by the ice melt. At least for a time. However, should this occur, it is impossible to determine how this may effect the NAO and in turn the potential synoptic patterns which derive from that, and in turn whether we have wet/dry cold mild winters etc etc. NAO is not determined by water being just cold or warm but by the arrangements of pockets of warm and cold water. A good example of what I am trying to say is the recent change in SSTA's which were favouring the possibility of a postive NAO set-up this winter but now due to the movement and change of shape of this anomoly there is, curently at least, a chance that -NAO patterns may emerge if a tripole water pattern goes on to develop if the warm anomaly moves and splits up meeting developing cold anomalies north of Iceland as the seasons change and cooling takes place.

So, back to the point in hand, a period of cancelling out may be happening before we get a clearer picture of the way ahead and speculation may be the order of the day for some yet.

My post indicated that I think that factors interweave - so clearly from that I do not think that atmospheric patterns are the only effect on arctic ice but my point was that more discussion/emphsais on this would be beneficial. Which is now happening anyway so all well and good.

Tamara

Hi Snowp,

OK I understand where you are coming from with the processes. I'm really not convinced by whether it is possible to forecast well, via telecommunications, in the Arctic, or elsewhere and I really can't see that the present ice cover is down to a particular set of telecommunications, but I agree with you on the interweaving (that's a nice way of desribing it. If I use it myself, I promise to credit you and please take it as a compliment!) of several (many?) factors.

I think we will find limits with teleconnections forecasts and I feel that is being borne out my the Met office's struggles to predict the overall phase of the NAO from SSTs. I might be wrong, but they've been at this experimental forecast for a long time and their accuracy doesn't seem to be improving. If they can't do it well, what chance do others have, especially individuals, of getting it right and correctly linking the melting/build-up of Arctic ice, with pressure differences across the Arctic. When I read someone linking a positive AO, or NAO, with an outcome for present ice build-up, I just shake my head gently. :lol:

Paul

[West is Best]

bias or not he reports things as they are.....

S

I don't think anyone can really claim that though Steve, that's all I'm getting at. None of us report anything as it is, only as we think it is. In other words, we interpret the events we see and inevitably everything we produce is delivered through our filters - filters we either wittingly or unwittingly have. Nothing is 100% objective in life, even the most seemingly hard-fact.

But wasn't intending to slight Carinth who's a great fellow. When did he work at the Met O?

Edited September 28, 2006 by West is Best

[SMU]

I don't think anyone can really claim that though Steve, that's all I'm getting at. None of us report anything as it is, only as we think it is. In other words, we interpret the events we see and inevitably everything we produce is delivered through our filters - filters we either wittingly or unwittingly have. Nothing is 100% objective in life, even the most seemingly hard-fact.

But wasn't intending to slight Carinth who's a great fellow. When did he work at the Met O?

Fair enough...

I think he worked for the Meto- Hes reading so....

S

[Polar Continental]

Paul Carfoot shares a cold bias with many of us but he also says things as they are.

So do I.

..So many other examples....

:lol:

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

lol well i try,

seriously though IMO just because anyone has a bias towards a certain type of weather or anything in life for that matter, it doesn’t mean you can’t be objective and report the facts as they are, Rob McElwee does appear to have a preference towards cold weather in winter, but he still reports the facts as they are, if he didn’t he would get in to trouble. In other words just because someone enjoys reporting on a certain type of weather with a smile on their face doesn’t mean they are bending the truth, they are just relishing the fact some weather they prefer is soon going to be enjoyed.

Paul

Edited September 28, 2006 by Paul Carfoot

[kold weather]

I'd agree with that Paul and West in that everyone is bias no matter how professional they may be and there is nothing wrong with that until some-one way over-hypes and there belief is the root cause of that hype.

[carinthian]

Hello everyone,

Busy afternoon on this site and great contributions. It can only get better. Before the light goes, go and visit Zeppelin Mountain station web cam in Ny- Alesund at over 400 m asl and view the formation of this seasons first year ice now taking place in the waters below. Fantastic pictures. Can someone with the know how bring these pictures up for me ?

cheers

C

[SMU]

Hello everyone,

Busy afternoon on this site and great contributions. It can only get better. Before the light goes, go and visit Zeppelin Mountain station web cam in Ny- Alesund at over 400 m asl and view the formation of this seasons first year ice now taking place in the waters below. Fantastic pictures. Can someone with the know how bring these pictures up for me ?

cheers

C

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/ram/ramcam.html

S

[carinthian]

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de/ram/ramcam.html

S

Thanks Steve,

Wonderful. Wouldn't you just like to be there !

C

[Guest Viking141]

Thanks Steve,

Wonderful. Wouldn't you just like to be there !

C

Superb! Yes I would indeedy!

:lol:

[West is Best]

In other words just because someone enjoys reporting on a certain type of weather with a smile on their face doesn’t mean they are bending the truth

I'm not sure where you were dragged into this Paul (or are you Carinthian? Confused by Tamara's jump, but then she is a woman and they do that sort of thing). Taking this all a bit seriously if you ask me! Bending the truth implies something deliberate, which is a different thing. No-one is ever objective. There's no such thing. We all give our interpretation of what we think are the facts, that's all. It's not a major problem - it only becomes so when people start claiming divinity for other people they admire.

[John Cox]

Hi Tamara,

I have been looking at this one for the last week. Beautiful!!

[carinthian]

heaven!

:lol:

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Just like Hasting seafront next February. Should get some great pictures from the Zeppelin station in the morning. Calm crystal clear air should give some great views above any inversion that should form. The mountains and glaciers across the water will look pink in the fast approaching twilight.

Best wishes

C

Hi Tamara,

I have been looking at this one for the last week. Beautiful!!

hi John ,

Nearly as good as one of your photos. I suppose we are lucky to have the opportunity to view these great and almost live pictures. Enjoy before total darkness sets in at the end of October.

C

[West is Best]

So is it true that you worked for the Met Office Carinth?

[carinthian]

So is it true that you worked for the Met Office Carinth?

Hi West,

Yes.

Will send you a message.

C

[Polar Continental]

Very true!

Hi Paul

The upcoming period is going to do no harm at all to the arctic ice cause with a cool down on the door-step in the coming week. I'm not too worried how far south the cooler air gets for the time being as long as the 'work' continues where it matters to bring the goods in the coming winter months.

Tamara

Hi again Tamara,

Yes we have quite a while to go yet before winter sets in and begins to get exciting for us here in the British Isles. So for the time being the cold air can stay up there and intensify to its heart content, then blast down on the UK around mid November and help to chill those high north sea temperature anomalies. That area certainly does need to cool down much more before winter sets in.

Paul

:blink:

[John Cox]

hi John ,

Nearly as good as one of your photos. I suppose we are lucky to have the opportunity to view these great and almost live pictures. Enjoy before total darkness sets in at the end of October.

C

Hi Carinth,

Thanks for the compliments re. my photos. All I need is some snow.

I never thought about the total darkness.

When does that occur?

Edited September 28, 2006 by John Cox

[ribster]

heaven!

:blink:

Tamara

Indeed, I hope to get my own small piece of heaven atop Kilimanjaro next week - should give me a snow fix anyway!

[carinthian]

heaven!

B)

Tamara

Morning all,

Check out that picture this morning. Fantastic shot. Sorry orange not pink !

C

[West is Best]

Indeed, I hope to get my own small piece of heaven atop Kilimanjaro next week - should give me a snow fix anyway!

Going to the top Ribster? How many days are you allowing for the climb?

[carinthian]

Good news from Franz Josef Land(the most northerly land in Euro/Asia), first year ice has formed widely throughout much of the archipelago. This is much earlier than last year. Forecast of drift ice towards Novaya Zemlya and into the Kara Sea is expected to continue. Still waiting for the latest reports from Svalbard regarding whether Polar ice edge has made any landfall yet. Should know tomorrow.

Carinth

Greetings all,

The very latest Sea Ice Analysis still indicates the main Polar multi-year ice edge is still some way of the coast of Svalbard (30-40km) from making landfall, however reports of fragmented floes have reached NE parts of the archipelago. Franz Josef Land is now almost locked with a solid concentration of ice. Further west out into the Greeland Sea reports of fast ice along the coastline with forecast drift as far as Scoresby Sound by this time next week. Overall ice amounts in the combined Greenland , Barent and Kara Seas is greater than this time last year and the one before.

Whilst sea ice growth looks promising in our sector, I am going to monitor events in the Beaufort Basin to see how events are unfolding in the Canadian West Arctic.

Carinth.

[Dawlish]

Greetings all,

The very latest Sea Ice Analysis still indicates the main Polar multi-year ice edge is still some way of the coast of Svalbard (30-40km) from making landfall, however reports of fragmented floes have reached NE parts of the archipelago. Franz Josef Land is now almost locked with a solid concentration of ice. Further west out into the Greeland Sea reports of fast ice along the coastline with forecast drift as far as Scoresby Sound by this time next week. Overall ice amounts in the combined Greenland , Barent and Kara Seas is greater than this time last year and the one before.

Whilst sea ice growth looks promising in our sector, I am going to monitor events in the Beaufort Basin to see how events are unfolding in the Canadian West Arctic.

Carinth.

Thank you C, exactly what I'd posted, too, apart from the Kara Sea, which the Cryosphere today site has as taking a recent downturn in ice cover. Have you got a link for the evidence for that one - it may well be more up-to-date than the cryosphere, which always lags a few days behind.

I'm way ahead of you on your last paragraph, as I'm sure you've already read.

Overall ice cover, again from cryosphere site, was at the yearly minimum about a week ago, as far as I can tell from the graph. NSIDC had it as "fairly steady" 2 days ago.

Paul

Edited September 29, 2006 by Dawlish