Australia severe weather 2006/7 season

[Supercell Hunters]

New topic for lastest reports and news from Australia's severe weather.

30C here yesterday and 31C today with hot mins around 15C, hehe.

Last day of dry day tomorrow with max of 31C. On monday until Friday next week willl see some severe thunderstorms, hopefully supercells, happy. I want more rain with fasincating dewpoints and humidity, very happy.

Lets see whats happen then.

[Supercell Hunters]

Looking good moisture on its way by charts. Late gusty storm for Lismore and Brisbane area tomorrow before the change comes through. After that day, there would be series of afternoon storms (possibley evening) rest of the week with high dew points, humidity and very muggy days. The temperatures remaining very warm with mid to high teens min temperatures. Hopefully this period there would get some nice gust fronts and/or structures from the storms.

I have been waiting for forecast models site from working and it hasn't been since yesterday. So i wanted to know how the wind shear going by then but now the area of rain is moving normal down in Sydney area. Hope this would be a same.

Cheers! Starting a first thunderstorms outbreak of the season!

[Supercell Hunters]

First day of seasonal thunderstorm outbreak tomorrow with awesome forecasts!

Monday 25th September 2006

Fine, very warm day at first with cloud increasing, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing with gusty SE change, possible squalls up to 75knots in thunderstorms.

Lismore: 30C-15C Early afternoon gusty storm

Ballina: 30C-18C Early afternoon gusty storm

:huh: :o :huh: :o

[Typhoon Hunter]

Look forward to seeing some pictures of chaos Mathew! Hope it's a good season for you.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes cannot wait to see the pics of the Supercell Structures, looks like your season is gonna start off on a good note.

Paul Sherman

[Supercell Hunters]

It is getting closer to here now. Dark clouds and seems getting humider, muggier and stormy!

Nice day here today with mild S winds, warmest temperature was 27C at 11:01am and then S buster came and drop to 18C now. It was getting cloudy today as now it is! Looking nice by the lightning tracker with brewing storm cells, looking severe near Boonah (SW of Brisbane).

Tomorrow looking good with moisture kicing in with mild temperature of 25C. 1-10mm of rain predicted by GFS models with Lifted Index of -2 and CAPE of 450m. Wind shear is quite similar to today but still a little trouble up north of Brisbane where bad shear occuring now!

Photos will come soon!!!!

PERFECT!!!!!!!!!!!

Thunderstorms for NE NSW and SE QLD

Brett Dutschke, Mon 17:46 EST

A few showers and thunderstorms developed over southeast QLD on Monday afternoon. One storm brought 17mm of rain to Eungella in far northeast NSW. Knapps Peak in southeast QLD picked up 4mm from another storm. A low pressure trough causing these storms has stalled just west of this region and will trigger further showers and storms on Tuesday afternoon. Storms will generally favour inland areas near the ranges, where instability will be highest. Showers and storms will also develop further south along the NSW ranges towards the Upper Hunter due to the weak trough dipping south over the inland. Rainfall from showers and storms will generally be about 5mm, but more than 10mm is possible right underneath a storm.

There is an increasing likelihood of thunderstorms on Wednesday due to the trough edging east towards the coast. On this day storms will have more moisture to play with and could bring heavier rain, possibly more than 20mm near the northeast NSW and southeast QLD ranges.

[Supercell Hunters]

Whoa!!!!! This is awesome. We had a severe storm at lunch today with 34mm of rain flash flooding so heavy falls with loud booming thunder and powerful cgs loomed over us! Winds wasn't severe, sad.

Now the GFS models show Lifted Index of -6 and CAPE of 1600m!!!!!!!! For tonight and tomorrow. Very warm and muggy day here today with 78% humidity, now it 20.4C and humidity is 97%. It is cloudy atm with spitting mild rain, looking dark in futher SW. Hope the line of severe storms on Moree and Charleville radars come this evening! I got spotted a supercell just east of Moree!

Good luck!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Have fun mate...be sure to post some pics!!

[shuggee]

Have you got any links to Australian Model Outputs? GFS for Asia/Australia would be very handy

[Supercell Hunters]

I checked the forecast models and it looking good for today's weather before the gusty change developing. Lifted Index is between 0 to -3! and CAPE is kinda active 340m and wind shear is strong NE'ly direction! Temperature atm is 26.3C (29C), winds from NE freshening now, dewpoint is high 17.9C and humidity is 61%!! Yay!

I saw few cu towers in SW of here with fluffy cu clouds in west and NW. Hopefully for development today!

[Supercell Hunters]

Better keep watching this topic!

Top end Australia having afternoon showers!!!!!!!!! First wet of the season, it too early and it awesome! I can't believe this happening. Weather for Australia tropics forecast arvo showers (small though) rest of the forecasting period! Good heavy falls at Darwin last night and night before.

Today forecast is:

Tuesday Possible shower

23 / 33°C

Good luck and NT weather

Keep watching the radars there you'ill see the link on that page, after you click on it, scoll down to NT and see radars for over there. Note: Use Darwin, Katherine and Gove radars for best spots!

Now, our weather is nice and warm, seems getting wetter too! :blink: Showers most of the days through the week and nice temperature around 26C and min 16C, COLA GFS models predicted up to 20mm of rain rest of this week and next week stunning 120mm :lol:

Cheers Matt

Edited October 3, 2006 by Supercell Hunters

[Joneseye]

Hi Matt,

an interesting read so far on this thread. It would be nice (as Shuggee has already asked) if you could post some links to the various model outputs for your area? This would mean that we (Net-Weather) could understand the forecast and maybe add some value inout to this thread.

Ian

[Supercell Hunters]

No worries, by this website http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_avn.sh is great website that bring outy a lot of good information. I can't believe that anyone from other side of the world do care about it I laugh myself O well, just a quite boring day with stupid cloud cover and wind gusts :lol:

Nice about monsoonal trough lingers near Indonesia at the moment, actually a bit north of it It not to fr ahead for our awesomely severe proper storms :lol:

[shuggee]

Ahhhhhh - you see I'm visiting Tokyo then Melbourne/Adelaide/Gold Coast and Brisbane over the next month - so I need the info for checking out the weather during the odd visit to an internet cafe :lol:

[Supercell Hunters]

Hey!!! I am just south of the Gold Coast! It only across the NSW QLD border about 90kms. I wonder of you visit here?

EDIT: Oh hang on here https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap...nz∏=prp the monsoonal trough heading southwards across the Indonesia nation.!

Edited October 3, 2006 by Supercell Hunters

[shuggee]

Oooooh - I've been to the border there before - up to the lighthouse(?) with the street back down the hill with the border down the middle :lol: And it's always been sunny - except for the time we went up into the mountains and it was foggy - so much for the 'Best View' from the lookout... (Might visit Nimbin again too :lol: )

[Supercell Hunters]

LOL You mean Byron Bay gateway? There isnt a border there, you mean Coolangatta lighthouse yes!!!! Lol Nimbin, i been there. Guess what, alot of people in the bush is fully naked!!!! (geeze those girls are goddamnit hot!) O wellies.

Remember our severe storms is already here by you get to Australia. Be careful our supercells are not like yours, it always have damaging winds with occassional tornadoes with straight line winds. (normally 130km/hr gusts)

What you link of the link i my last post about monsoonal trough?

[Supercell Hunters]

Sorry for dead link, here https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap...nz∏=prp

[Supercell Hunters]

Unbelievable breaking news from scienctist!

Bleak news from the ABC News website:

Chances of avoiding El Nino nil, climate centre says

The National Climate Centre (NCC) has confirmed the chances of Australia avoiding the grip of an El Nino weather pattern this spring are virtually nil.

The prospect of hotter and drier conditions, particularly in south-eastern Australia, is dire news for farmers.

Near record temperatures have gripped much of Australia during September, and the south-east corner has recorded the most significant changes.

But at this stage climatologists say this El Nino is not looking as bad as the last one four years ago.

The NCC says all the signs of an El Nino are here - and Australians should brace for hot conditions over the summer months.

NCC spokesman Grant Beard says there is little chance of the current El Nino pattern dissipating.

"If the development doesn't continue, if there's a sudden turnaround in patterns across the Pacific, well then we would probably fall short of declaring this or recognising this - in hindsight - as an event," he said.

"But even if that did occur, the fact that we have high temperatures over the Pacific and low values of the SOI [southern Oscillation Index], that means that the Australian climate, particularly the east of the country, is bias towards being warmer and drier than average for the rest of this year."

Mr Beard says it is still too early to give any accurate assessment of weather patterns over the summer months.

But he says it is likely that conditions in the nation's south-east corner will be abnormally hot until the end of the year.

"Across Victoria we are looking at chances in excess of 80 per cent for exceeding the long-term average for that three-month period," he said.

"But El Nino events tend to breakdown, in terms of the climate patterns across Australia, sometime during summer.

"Although temperatures might remain above average, the rainfall patterns are less predictable."

'Serious implications'

Australia's last El Nino event was in 2002, with that year bringing unusually hot and dry conditions across most of the country.

He says that should another El Nino event materialise, it will have serious implications for Australia's environment.

"We had a very severe drought that went from early 2002 into autumn 2003, but we haven't really seen a strong break since that time," he said.

"The rainfall has returned to somewhere close to average, but we haven't had a wide-spread above average rainfall year at all since that previous event."

"So with another event, such as the one we look like we're in at the moment developing this year, it's obviously going to have a fairly severe impact because, as we see in the news all the time, the water supplies are dwindling, or very low, and this is another thing to take into account."

But Mr Beard says the current El Nino weather pattern is not having as strong an impact as that of 2002.

"Obviously some areas are experiencing it very badly, mainly the south-east corner of the country and probably the south-west corner as well," he said.

"But for say, large parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales, it hasn't been anywhere as near as severe as what occurred in 2002."

He says the current weather patterns could be linked to global climate change.

"We're concerned with long-term trends over large areas," he said.

"So we're looking at the kinds of changes in rainfall or temperature - say over Australia - over half a century to a century.

"That's the kind of thing we're doing with climate change."

Nice news for us, lucky i am in northern eastern NSW Well i guess another series of cyclones again

[Supercell Hunters]

Now our days becoming humid, muggier and wetter. Temperature staying mid to high 20's, maybe low 30's with showery much of the week! Next week looking awesome with high temperatures, high humidity and good rainfalls! More thunderstorms expecting through the weeks! More to come!!!!

[Supercell Hunters]

Hey guys,

Today weather is showers increasing with afternoon/evening thunderstorms, very warm before gusty SE change.

Hopefully the storms gonna be alright today because CAPE is 450m and Lifted Index is -2.5 I am taking photos today if there some storms around!

[Supercell Hunters]

The forecast models hinting some good thunderstorms across NENSW and SEQLD today with increasing instability and moisture that will held thunderstorms to live longer and possibley severe. Lifted Index increasing -1 to -4 tonight at 6pm and CAPE still hanging around 500m.

There are some convection south of here at the moment with altocumlus and cumulus updrafts with shooting tops. Temperature increasing to 24C now with stalling humidity of 78%, it is muggier day today. I believe winds from south would convect some pops up on new cells. There is plenty moisture from it but trade Northern'ly winds still playing around above 300Hpa.

Have a good time!

[Supercell Hunters]

Well it GOOD NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shocked Few cells popping up near dorrigo area and it moving fast NE'ly direction! It getting cloudier with nice warm temperatures!

EDIT: Moderate falls spotted near Dorrigo! Here: http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR282.loop.shtml

Cheers Very Happy

[Supercell Hunters]

Strange weather here today. Whole forecast is 100% wrong.

[Supercell Hunters]

Today hot one up to 31C with freshening Northern'ly winds. Gusty southern'ly change coming overnight bringing strong winds and showery weather until Tuesday:( Afterwards Wednesday, looking soooooooo much like summer days, average max is 30.2C and average min 17.9C after Wednesday!

Good luck for snowies!