Australia severe weather 2006/7 season

[Supercell Hunters]

Most severist storm ever at my dad's place was on 17th December 2005:

Tennis balls sized hailstones.

Southern part of same supercell:

Looks like a mescyclone to me! Woot!

[Blizz]

Yeah, it wont be quite as cold on Boxing Day for the test match but there could be some rain around in the morning. Still, its going to be a chilly Christmas day down south around Melbourne. There should be some nice snowfalls across the ranges, just north of Melbourne. It has been an extraordinary year over here. We are in the grip of a terrible drought and my town saw only two light snowfalls in winter but then it snowed north of my place in November! Indeed it was cold enough to snow here at the same time but moisture was limited. And now we are having a decent cold outbreak in Oz in December, pretty crazy stuff.

[Supercell Hunters]

NOGAPS-Forecast for NE NSW-SE QLD

Wet season coming up for located areas which monsoonal low forming in Coral Sea during Xmas period. Flooding rain with widespread heavy falls with isolated very heavy downpours along northern nsw coast and the Gold coast area. Severe weather will notice as that new monsoonal trough will form over the same area whie Coral Sea low will form.

Gusty thunderstorms will be very likely within monsoonal rain most of SE QLD and NE NSW state. By End of January, this huge wet spell will continue til when la nina descreases later next summer season.

Very dangerous gusty thunderstorms and flooding monsoonal rain will persit in tropical area but it may including this area too.

I have received an email from Nogaps American, this sounded like very tropical for us! I think we better for prepare for this wet-math, it pretty much like the year of 1974. This weather conditions will be dangerous.

[Blizz]

Well, its snowing in parts of southern Australia today. Click on the cams below to see the snow.

State of Victoria, north of Melbourne:

http://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/lakemtn2.html

Tasmania cam - should be snow on the mountains later

http://www.rosebay.tased.edu.au/camera.htm

And my town will stay cool all day and probably not get over 11 or 12C. Not bad for summer in Oz!

More photos from a climatologist in Oz from the weather bureau, who is also a mad keen snow lover.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/72584009@N00

More photos from another aussie cold weather lover:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/amancalledsue/?saved=1

Of course, it is a combination of hail, sleet and snow in the various photos here but quite amazing for a subtropical climate in summer. Melbourne could have its coldest Christmas day in over 70 years. And this follows an amazing cold outbreak in November for the SE of Oz. We are all hoping for a good snow season in 2007 which seems a reasonable chance with the possibility of the drought breaking in autumn/winter.

Edited December 25, 2006 by Blizz

[Filski]

Well, its snowing in parts of southern Australia today. Click on the cams below to see the snow.

State of Victoria, north of Melbourne:

http://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/lakemtn2.html

Tasmania cam - should be snow on the mountains later

http://www.rosebay.tased.edu.au/camera.htm

And my town will stay cool all day and probably not get over 11 or 12C. Not bad for summer in Oz!

More photos from a climatologist in Oz from the weather bureau, who is also a mad keen snow lover.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/72584009@N00

More photos from another aussie cold weather lover:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/amancalledsue/?saved=1

Of course, it is a combination of hail, sleet and snow in the various photos here but quite amazing for a subtropical climate in summer. Melbourne could have its coldest Christmas day in over 70 years. And this follows an amazing cold outbreak in November for the SE of Oz. We are all hoping for a good snow season in 2007 which seems a reasonable chance with the possibility of the drought breaking in autumn/winter.

It was a real white Xmas in many parts of the mountains. I have friends who actually got some skiing in. In Australia... on Xmas day! While we sit here in mild mush in the UK! Did the planet flip over night or something?

More photos here.

http://forum.ski.com.au/ultimate/ultimateb...ic;f=1;t=085498

[Blizz]

http://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/lakemtn2.html

Yes, very impressive outbreak for summer. Sure, we do get snow perhaps a couple of times or so a decade in December in higher reaches but for there still to be snow on this link above and still -1C the next morning is impressive.

BTW Filski, I'm a Weather Commentator over at ski.com.au and am known as 'Blackheath' over there.

Edited December 25, 2006 by Blizz

[Supercell Hunters]

Yesterday we had huge RFB clouds in afternoon after 36C! With extreme humidity and dewpoints! Well as sooner before dark, we got very extreme 30sec shower! Today is way cooler, cloudy with few rain areas extending to showers during the afternoon.

[Filski]

BTW Filski, I'm a Weather Commentator over at ski.com.au and am known as 'Blackheath' over there.

Hiya Blackheath, I'm sure you remember me then - inaugural snow forecasting champ on the weather forum beating the great Frog. I lurk here now that I live in London. I don't post much since I'm way outa my depth with the patterns here - what a mess! It's nice and predictable back home. What these guys call FI is fairly reliable in the southern hemi, being able to track systems from Chile onwards.

I know Oz gets these outbreaks but never so long lived and so much dumpage. It really is most unusual, as is the warmth here from what I've read. Although it does seem to be starting to become the norm... Unpredictability that is. Check out D'eyes thread in CV.

Edited December 25, 2006 by Filski

[paul tall]

Wow!

Fascinating. 42 degrees in Melbourne two weeks ago and now the coldest Christmas for years with snow in the mountains!

[Supercell Hunters]

Yeah, see how Australian weather is so extreme! We had too much storms in one week. Nevere stop!

[Blizz]

Hiya Blackheath, I'm sure you remember me then - inaugural snow forecasting champ on the weather forum beating the great Frog. I lurk here now that I live in London. I don't post much since I'm way outa my depth with the patterns here - what a mess! It's nice and predictable back home. What these guys call FI is fairly reliable in the southern hemi, being able to track systems from Chile onwards.

I know Oz gets these outbreaks but never so long lived and so much dumpage. It really is most unusual, as is the warmth here from what I've read. Although it does seem to be starting to become the norm... Unpredictability that is. Check out D'eyes thread in CV.

Yeah, I do remember you actually. Amazing event indeed this one. Then again, our drought has been amazing too and the last ski season was amazing for producing very little.

[Supercell Hunters]

Sunday Forecast: Northern Rivers

Unsettled weather, heavy showers developing with expecting squalls up to 55knots, isolated thunderstorms. Light winds in morning moderating during the day tending to gusty in afternoon thunderstorms.

[Andy Bown]

Wow! Fascinating. 42 degrees in Melbourne two weeks ago and now the coldest Christmas for years with snow in the mountains!

Despite how rubbish England have been in the test matches, it was good to see them playing in Melbourne with typically English cricket weather conditions .

[Weather-history]

14.5C at Melbourne for Christmas Day, its coldest Christmas Day ever.

Its fantastic how the weather can throw up such quirks that the higher parts of Victoria had a white Christmas in the Aussie summer whilst nowhere in the UK had a white Christmas in our winter.

[Gray-Wolf]

If 'funny things' are happening in Antartica (Icebergs off NZ South Island) then the warm causing those 'funny things' has to displace the cold somewhere so maybe this is an indication of more vigorouse mixing in the higher latitudes this southern summer. They've had extreme events (I was reading here) in Argentina too, all we need is for South Africa to wade in with some extremes and we have a full set!!!

[paul tall]

It is normal for Melbourne to have blazing heat in summer of 40º+, to be replaced by cool English temperatures in the mid teens, and then back to blazing heat.

[Blizz]

Not quite normal for mid teens weather for Melbourne in late December. Sure, high teens and low twenties will come with cool changes but mid teens is not common. One of the things I was reminded of the other day is that whilst the large bay around Melbourne (Port Phillip Bay) tends to weaken the effects of cold outbreaks in Melbourne in winter, it tends to strenghen them in summer as the bay really warms up in summer, aiding convective activity etc during cold changes.

ski.com.au forum in Oz has had some ripper pics of the snow here on Mt Baw Baw. These from 'Kahanamoku' are beauties.

http://davins.homelinux.net/downloads/Dec26/IMG_0020.jpg

http://davins.homelinux.net/downloads/Dec26/IMG_0008.jpg

http://davins.homelinux.net/downloads/Dec26/IMG_0009.jpg

http://davins.homelinux.net/downloads/Dec26/IMG_0011.jpg

http://davins.homelinux.net/downloads/Dec26/IMG_0027.jpg

You Tube footage from Kahanamoku:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvU14W7182c

Edited December 27, 2006 by Blizz

[Supercell Hunters]

Moisty unstable NE airstream will cause very severe storms over NE NSW and SE QLD during new year period. Instability, moisture and wind shear looks very promising for over this period. Lifted Index will be notified between -4 to -11 with CAPE over 1500kj's. Extreme instability mainly over NE NSW area starting this Friday where severe storms born. Very semi stantionary trough with high over period

[Blizz]

Moisty unstable NE airstream will cause very severe storms over NE NSW and SE QLD during new year period. Instability, moisture and wind shear looks very promising for over this period. Lifted Index will be notified between -4 to -11 with CAPE over 1500kj's. Extreme instability mainly over NE NSW area starting this Friday where severe storms born. Very semi stantionary trough with high over period

I think that is overstating it mate. I've just run an animation on GFS and whilst LI's are potentially in the 0 to -4 range (and maybe fractionally higher) over this period and CAPE is in the 800 to 1400 range, your figures are over the top. Sorry, but its important to accurately render forecasts or at least do the best you can champ. ;-)

Edited December 27, 2006 by Blizz

[Supercell Hunters]

LOL! I think you better run over BOM's forecast that what i posted.

Anyway yeah more wet weather coming on its way but cooler than average?

[Supercell Hunters]

Going more serious now Blizz.

[Blizz]

Going more serious now Blizz.

No, you didn't post the BoM forecast above. I know your posting style and that is definitely your writing.

[Blizz]

Looks like Perth near the tip of Western Australia could be the next to cop an unseasonably cold outbreak just a few days after new years. The weird weather looks to continue.

[Supercell Hunters]

The more to continue, its seems terrible for us on eastern side as that blocking high that is staying like forever and stalling trough in nsw. Not moving, it letting us to have longer black nor'easter.

[Supercell Hunters]

Severe storms had issued for 3rd day so far this week! Three consective days! Very warm and humid with NE seabreezes atm, few fews with increasing mid to high clouds from west. Preferred cirrus over head now. Looking good on many nsw and qld radars atm. Alot of storm cells are very slow moving. Have fun for tonight lightning show! Ta!