October CET

[guitarnutter]

I have opened this topic to discuss the October CET

[West is Best]

I have opened this topic to discuss the October CET

I'm going for a seemingly absurd 13.4C. The October record to fall!

[Weather-history]

The last time October

..had a CET >13C

2005 13.1

..had a CET <10C

2003 9.2

..had a CET <9C

1993 8.5

..had a CET <8C

1992 7.8

..had a CET <7C

1896 6.9

..had a CET <6C

1740 5.3

..was warmer than September

1807 Sep 10.5 Oct 11.4

..was colder than November

1939 Oct 8.2 Nov 8.7

..was colder than December

1974 Oct 7.8 Dec 8.1

..was wettest month of the year

2005 126.0mm

..was the driest month of the year

1978 17.2mm

..was sunnier than September

1994 Sept 109.1 Oct 116.0

The longest interval between Octobers with a double digit CET is 14 years between 1687 and 1702

The longest run of Octobers with double digit CETS is 9 years from 1994 to 2002 inclusive

The longest run of sub 9C Octobers is 4 years from 1840 to 1843

There was only one instance of two consecutive Octobers with CETs >12C and they were 1968 (12.5) and 1969 (13.0)

Edited September 27, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Bottesford]

Well looking at those stats its unlikely we'd see another >12c October but after a record breaking summer, record breaking July, record breaking Sept and so forth - nothing is unlikely on the warmth front!

So i'll go for 12.2C.

[Dawlish]

Can we have a prize this time?

Paul

[Guest Viking141]

I'll have a wild stab at 11C!

[West is Best]

an above average 12.7C

Tamara - what's happened?!

[West is Best]

To what?

I think that elongated summer seasons are to be expected as the norm now, which is not actually unwelcome by me. In fact I can see all the seasons being shunted forward somewhat. The last few years has borne this out and I would not be surprised to see this trend continue with summer and winter being the principle seasons with relatively abrupt (though not necessarily starkly linear) changes between the two.

For the mix anyway.

Tamara

It's an interesting notion. If this year's anything to go by it's the case, with an elongated winter and catapault into summer; followed by summer running right through September. I must admit, despite my belief in AGW I'm not quite yet going down the Daily Express route of 'Winter will be the new Summer'

Despite going for a well above average October, I wouldn't be that surprised by a shock to the system. It's happened before: 15.7C in September 1760 to 9.2C in October. A bigger drop occurred in 1865: from 16.3C to 9.7C. It's easy to get lulled by all this warmth. But I just don't see anything very cold in the offing at the moment.

[Intrepid]

I'l go for 10.7c

[Weather-history]

Despite going for a well above average October, I wouldn't be that surprised by a shock to the system. It's happened before: 15.7C in September 1760 to 9.2C in October. A bigger drop occurred in 1865: from 16.3C to 9.7C. It's easy to get lulled by all this warmth. But I just don't see anything very cold in the offing at the moment.

The biggest drop is 8.7C between September 1740 (14.0) and October 1740 (5.3)

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Current Charts are showing that as we head into and beyond the start of october, temperatures are going to take a dive.

Current Average maximums during the day in the south are peeking at 20 - 21

Current Average maximums during the day in the north are peeking at around 15-18

The charts as showing temperatures to take a tumble as we get closer to December and october will signal the start of temperatures dropping.

The charts are showing maximums of about 13-16 in the south and 7-11 in the north. Tree colours willstart to change fast as we go into October as the temperatures drop dramatically. This dramatic drop in temperatures over the next week willprovide ideal breeding grounds for the common cold so watch out!

Typical weather as we start Ocotber looks fairly showery and this theme looks set to continue for atleast the first half of the month. As we head towards mid-month however,and beyond, the weather turns more settled as the jet diverts around a very large high in the atlantic to come from the north. This will bring highpressure to a stand still and increasing the chance of rain in the east as the jet comes down from the north along the east coast which may bring depressions. With the jet coming ffrom the north we can expect cooler days as wind comes from the north with high pressure in charge.

So a very cool and variable ocotber can be expected with common northerly outbreaks as the jet verers around and high pressure becomes settled over the uk. Temperatures are likely to be cool.

So therefore i am going to put the Estimated C.E.T at 9.5 Due to a huge dip in temperatures as high pressure becomes block.

More detail on the cooler Ocotber differnc1e in muy month forecast which will be issued at the end of the month with charts showing the jetstream and how this will keep the high pressure in it's position.

SNOW-MAN2006

[Joneseye]

I have a feeling that October might be plagued by mist and fog and for that reason I feel that we may well get some periods where the temperatures struggle by day and night. On that basis I will go for a below average month somewhere around the 7.5C

mark.

[Wynn D Woo]

My gut feeling for October is for a continuation of warmth and a CET of 12.4

[Bham Chris]

It's very hard to predict because there's many possible scenarios.Scenario one,continuation of the extreme warmthy and we get another record breaker.Scenario two,a month of two halfs,a very warm first month followed by a cooler 2nd half.Or an unexpected pattern change early in the month and we get a get an average a below average month.Or an unexpected very cold month though that is very unlikely.I will go for the 2nd scenario,it will be a very warm and sunny first half,then a more average and wet set up will occur for the second half of the month.Therefore I'll go for around 12.1.We are very slowly cooling down but I feel we will properly see an effect by November.

[Hiya]

9.8

[Anti-Mild]

I'll go for 11.2c; very mild start followed by a cold last 10 days.

[The PIT]

As ever I'll get it wrong. I'll go with a continuing mild theme. 12C to 12.5C.

[Snowyowl9]

I`m going for 11.7c

[lesta_snow]

11c

[Snowly does it]

Early October has not looked warm enough to go 12.5 plus on GFS for me for some time (given how much it should plunge later in the month)

My heart says 10, my head says 11.5, my average is therefore 10.75

10.75

[lesta_snow]

the start of the month looks like its quite cool it looks lke a definate cool down to what were used to

[Scorcher]

the start of the month looks like its quite cool it looks lke a definate cool down to what were used to

October 2005 started off much cooler than this October is looking like it will and look what happened then.

[kold weather]

Yeah but October 2005 had 7 hurricanes in there, which 4 went on to to get into the jet somewhere...now remember that just 2 have been about 50% to blame for this amazingly warm September...

could see a similar start to 2005 thanks to TD9 and I'd expect the warm to contniue for a little while yet but it probably will cool down by mid-month when the Atlantic starts to slow down pumping these tropical cyclones and the Atlantic reverts back.

I'd guess thanks to a warm start, 1.1C above average.

[Guest Mike W]

The way things are going we could break the October record aswell or it could do what August did and be the average month in the middle of 2 record hot months and finish at 10.4. Their/there is alot more heat around than 20+ years ago as we are having to deal with alot more incoming solar radiation due to the clean air laws, which adds to the warming that industry and transport is doing. Or so the scientists say. But thats not intended as a anti- clean air piece BTW.

Edited September 27, 2006 by Mike W

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the data so far, te first third of October is looking distinctly average however the surface heat of September will most likely cause the CET to be above average by the 10th, afterwards both the data and my own forecast point to cold conditions taking hold.

My CET prediction is 10.4C, which is average.