October CET

[Mr Sleet]

Certainly a very warm October. Warm nights have been the biggest factor in producing the high CET figure.

As for the yearly CET, I'm confident that November and December will average LESS than 6.25. B)

And if you are right , that still leaves the record annual CET way back 16 years ago, and as near as dammit 57 years ago, if we don't count hundredths of degree.

Edited November 2, 2006 by Mr Sleet

[lukenmudge]

Certainly a very warm October. Warm nights have been the biggest factor in producing the high CET figure.

As for the yearly CET, I'm confident that November and December will average LESS than 6.25.

Is that a hint at your winter forecast Ian? B)

LM

[Scorcher]

October certainly didn't have any really cold nights for me, with the average minimum being 7.4º compared to 2.5º in 2003. However, last year was actually warmer (8.0º) and even warmer still was 2001 (8.6º).

True but those two Octobers didn't come straight after the warmest September on record, which makes this figure of 13C all the more astonishing.

[WBSH]

Which two Octobers were warmer than the one just gone? I would have a bet that they were the Octobers of 2001 and 2005??

[Snowly does it]

Which two Octobers were warmer than the one just gone? I would have a bet that they were the Octobers of 2001 and 2005??

yes, and this one equals 1969

[Stratos Ferric]

So what about annual CETs that are to the 1/100th degree? Hadley does it.

They shouldn't, unless they record to that RELIABLE degree of accuracy in the first place. I'm assuming I do not have to explain the maths of the situation to you Mr D.

It's rather like trying to gauge the dimension of a postage stamp by pacing around it.

The suspense is killing me. Is it 12.9 or not??

Moose

Rounded to the nearest 12.9 it looks like 12.9 to me. Bonzer points in the test run of the CET trophy then for some of us...

[ukmoose]

They shouldn't, unless they record to that RELIABLE degree of accuracy in the first place. I'm assuming I do not have to explain the maths of the situation to you Mr D.

It's rather like trying to gauge the dimension of a postage stamp by pacing around it.

Rounded to the nearest 12.9 it looks like 12.9 to me. Bonzer points in the test run of the CET trophy then for some of us...

Absolutely

Moose

[chilly milly]

Wow 12.9C shame it didn't break the record, but a few have tumbled this year and its not over yet.........

[summer blizzard]

I was thinking about the October CET in relation to the September warmth, and found that the October CET of 13C was exacly what we should of expected after such a high September CET outturn.

The standard drop from September to October is 3.3C (13.7-10.4), which after a September CET of 16.8C, should of yielded a October CET of 13.4C, so in effect, we got more of a drop in the CET than we should have.

[Stratos Ferric]

I was thinking about the October CET in relation to the September warmth, and found that the October CET of 13C was exacly what we should of expected after such a high September CET outturn.

The standard drop from September to October is 3.3C (13.7-10.4), which after a September CET of 16.8C, should of yielded a October CET of 13.4C, so in effect, we got more of a drop in the CET than we should have.

Not sure there's any logic in that SB. We're erring into the sort of territory that gets statistics a very bad name now. Unless you compare with other Septembers with equally high CETs then we can't be sure. There's an argument that if September was as high as it was then the drop to October should have been higher than normal.

The fact is that October turned in a very high CET.

[summer blizzard]

True, if Mr Data would post such examples of both September and October being 2C or more above the average then we may draw some conclusions.

The October drop was greater than should be expected by 0.4C, although i suppose you could put that down to margin of error.

[Stratos Ferric]

True, if Mr Data would post such examples of both September and October being 2C or more above the average then we may draw some conclusions.

The October drop was greater than should be expected by 0.4C, although i suppose you could put that down to margin of error.

For the top decile September CETs the average change from S-O is 5.1 C. Given that this September was the top of the pile, the least that might have been expected would have been a drop of >5.1C, and arguably as much as 6C. In this context the fall of 3.6 is less than should have been expected, and is in fact exactly the average across the CET record.

One might infer from this that the months are warming and cooling relative to each other just as they ought to (and why wouldn't they since relative change in solar flux is unchanged), it's just that the baseline is around 1.5C higher than it used to be - which, in fact, is not far from the fact of the matter.

[summer blizzard]

I must admit that i agree with that assesment, however i must stress that i believe that it is the heat during the summers which is doing the damage (i.e. earlier springs and later autumns), which is why i still think it possible for a winter with a CET less than 2C.

[Stratos Ferric]

I must admit that i agree with that assesment, however i must stress that i believe that it is the heat during the summers which is doing the damage (i.e. earlier springs and later autumns), which is why i still think it possible for a winter with a CET less than 2C.

I don't agree. The real change in recent years has been the increase in winter minima. For that reason alone exceptionally cold winter months are now pretty much right at the boundary of the possible. Revisiting the rank data I've used for the new thread I started, over the past ten years the average rank for May-Oct is 78th. For N-Dec it's 91 (though that's with exceptionally unlikely projections for relative cool this month and next), and for J-Apr it's 82nd. There's a smidge in it, but c.f. the period 1977-86 the comparative average ranks were 159th, 187th and 93rd. The real warming has been in mid winter.

[summer blizzard]

I don't agree. The real change in recent years has been the increase in winter minima. For that reason alone exceptionally cold winter months are now pretty much right at the boundary of the possible. Revisiting the rank data I've used for the new thread I started, over the past ten years the average rank for May-Oct is 78th. For N-Dec it's 91 (though that's with exceptionally unlikely projections for relative cool this month and next), and for J-Apr it's 82nd. There's a smidge in it, but c.f. the period 1977-86 the comparative average ranks were 159th, 187th and 93rd. The real warming has been in mid winter.

I only agree partially, as recently as mid Feb to mid-March, the CET for that time was below 2C, as was the same period the year before, now i agree that it is harder to keep it up, but i think it will happen, even if it is just a fluke in an otherwise mild decade.

[Stratos Ferric]

I only agree partially, as recently as mid Feb to mid-March, the CET for that time was below 2C, as was the same period the year before, now i agree that it is harder to keep it up, but i think it will happen, even if it is just a fluke in an otherwise mild decade.

I think periods of <2C are still possible, but not entire winters. Even a single month is looking unlikely. When it has happened it in the past it has (probably lmost invariably) been because a cold period has sustained for 5-6 weeks, giving a span across a calendar month. Such temporally extensive cold seems beyond possibility at present.

[guitarnutter]

so, who was closest?

[summer blizzard]

Suruike: 12.5C

Tugmistress: 12.6C

Snowprincess: 12.7C

Scorcher: 12.7C

Glacier Point: 12.9C

Stratos Ferric: 12.9C

Ukmoose: 12.9C

Gray-Wolf: 13.2C

West is Best: 13.4C

All these people were within 0.5C of the 13C Hadley CET, well done although nobody was bang on.

[Stratos Ferric]

Suruike: 12.5C

Tugmistress: 12.6C

Snowprincess: 12.7C

Scorcher: 12.7C

Glacier Point: 12.9C

Stratos Ferric: 12.9C

Ukmoose: 12.9C

Gray-Wolf: 13.2C

West is Best: 13.4C

All these people were within 0.5C of the 13C Hadley CET, well done although nobody was bang on.

Well, before I get crowned the King of Humility, might I humbly suggest that three people were closer than anyone else. Not to gloat you understand, but by my reckoning the 12.9s have it.

And well done to SnowPrincess for going against her titular instinct.