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The Warmest September ever recorded?


West is Best

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Kevin Bradshaw, Mr Data;

You may be able to help me here. I am aware that this September, 2006 has been warmer than every June but one in the past 100 years, and has been warmer than August for the first time since ?, and warmer than ? Julys and ? Augusts in the last century, so it goes to show what an exceptional month this September has been.

Mentioning your August synoptics that a very northerly month only produced an average August CET of 16.1; I will add my point that for a time our northerlies were coming round the northern flank of an Azores High, and the furthest north our August northerlies originated from were from the Iceland / southern Greenland area or Scandinavia - none of these areas are cold enough in August to get a CET in the 13s. To get an August CET in the 13s you would need to see bands of low pressure centered over the UK much of the time, or frequent northerlies from deep inside the Arctic circle over the UK - and to add to it frequently cloudy weather in August prevented any cool nights - in actual fact Aug 2005 saw much cooler nights than Aug 2006. Had there been less cloud in August and more cooler nights we would have been looking at a CET possibly in the low to mid 15s.

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Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk

I'd say it was very much nighttime temps that have taken the Sept record this year, aside from one or two 'hot' days, it has been pretty much slightly above average for maxima.

Nighttime temperatures also mitigated the cold last winter, its a trend worth watching I think

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
I'd say it was very much nighttime temps that have taken the Sept record this year, aside from one or two 'hot' days, it has been pretty much slightly above average for maxima.

Nighttime temperatures also mitigated the cold last winter, its a trend worth watching I think

That's not true, virtually every day has been above average! In fact today was the coolest day of the month in Manchester at 16C which is average for the end of September! Even the cooler days have been above average. There have been temperatures in the 20s throughout the month- in most areas 21C is 3C above average in September. Then we saw 27C quite widely on the 21st- which is quite exceptional for so late in the month. I don't even know why you're trying to play down this month- it has been warmer than August and considerably warmer than any September in the past century. It's incredible that the cold lovers try to play down even the warmest months on record! You can't expect constant heat all the way through September- 22C in September is the equivalent of something like 25C in July or August. It's both the consistently high maxima and minima which have produced the record CET.

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Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
That's not true, virtually every day has been above average! In fact today was the coolest day of the month in Manchester at 16C which is average for the end of September! Even the cooler days have been above average. There have been temperatures in the 20s throughout the month- in most areas 21C is 3C above average in September. Then we saw 27C quite widely on the 21st- which is quite exceptional for so late in the month. I don't even know why you're trying to play down this month- it has been warmer than August and considerably warmer than any September in the past century. It's incredible that the cold lovers try to play down even the warmest months on record! You can't expect constant heat all the way through September- 22C in September is the equivalent of something like 25C in July or August. It's both the consistently high maxima and minima which have produced the record CET.

I'm not playing it down, its a record month, I think the high nighttime minima delivered the record though. I think wihtout them, the daytime maxima would not have been enough and outside the 27 day the maxima were low 20s, very unusual but steadily above average as I said in my post. Where did I say any day was below average?

Don't go thinking just because I have snow in my name I am some sort of I.A.Nist.

Later month maxima have been very impressive certainly.

Record month, no more need be said, I think the nighttime situation is interesting however, agree or disagree as you will.

Edit - no heatwave (longer than a day) occured, the record has fallen due to above average daytimes and astonishingly consecutively high nightiimes.

Edited by snowmaiden
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow

What makes a record breaking month? Well one which has consistent high maximums and high minimums. September 06 had both of those. Having temperatures 2.5C above average throughout the whole month is pretty unusual. We just havent had a cool day in September. Temperatures peaking at 28C on the 21st is unusual again but can happen relativly easily if the synoptics are right. September may have been warm but who is to say October isnt going to be cool.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
What makes a record breaking month? Well one which has consistent high maximums and high minimums. September 06 had both of those. Having temperatures 2.5C above average throughout the whole month is pretty unusual. We just havent had a cool day in September. Temperatures peaking at 28C on the 21st is unusual again but can happen relativly easily if the synoptics are right. September may have been warm but who is to say October isnt going to be cool.

I will!!!

The apparent 'slackening' of the trades signalling the start of the current ENSO event has allowed the migration of both 're-curving' Hurricanes and direct feeds from Equitorial sources warming this side of the Atlantic and, seeing as the Hurricane season isn't over for a while yet and El-Nino is still a 'babe' and growing in influence, I don't see why our current synoptics should alter apart from the slow cool off of diurnal heating as autumn progresses :)

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Kevin Bradshaw, Mr Data;

You may be able to help me here. I am aware that this September, 2006 has been warmer than every June but one in the past 100 years, and has been warmer than August for the first time since ?, and warmer than ? Julys and ? Augusts in the last century, so it goes to show what an exceptional month this September has been.

.

The last time September was warmer than August was 1985 in the Manley CET and Areal series.

1729, 1737, 1750, 1784, 1865, 1890, 1891, 1956, 1985 and likely 2006

July cooler than September

1795, 1802, 1821, 1875, 1890, 1895

September warmest month of the year: only one instance 1890

If September ends on 16.8, then there have been 31 warmer Julys than this since and including 1900

19 Augusts than this since and including 1900

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
What makes a record breaking month? Well one which has consistent high maximums and high minimums. September 06 had both of those. Having temperatures 2.5C above average throughout the whole month is pretty unusual. We just havent had a cool day in September. Temperatures peaking at 28C on the 21st is unusual again but can happen relativly easily if the synoptics are right. September may have been warm but who is to say October isnt going to be cool.

Exactly, it's a bit of both - according to Philip Eden maxima were 2.6C above the mean for the period 1-29 September and minima were 3.2C above. So, you could say that the high minima have contributed more to the final figure than the maxima, but not 'very' much more.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

It's not the daytime tmeps that have really amazed me this September, but the very mild night time mins, with some nights having mins above the daytime average, which is really quite amazing!

The rrecord could yet go but indeed the CEt has taken a dip last night which makes it less likely. Either way this has been another amazingly warm month!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Pole
  • Location: South Pole

Last night's minima in the CET region were over 4C lower than the previous night. With the CET taking a big knock yesterday, this morning's minima are going to have a bigger effect, particularly as there is nothing to suggest substantially higher maxima today than yesterday. Whether the September record is broken or not now hangs in the balance.

Edited by Nick H
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well it looks like a sunny one for many today (we'll see how the showers develop later! ) and of course only half a night ('cause at 12 pm it's October) so todays temps will be skewed a little higher by the loss of the greater part of the 'cool' end of the night (as it may turn out to be a clear night with low 'mins' recorded).

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: South Pole
  • Location: South Pole
Well it looks like a sunny one for many today (we'll see how the showers develop later! ) and of course only half a night ('cause at 12 pm it's October) so todays temps will be skewed a little higher by the loss of the greater part of the 'cool' end of the night (as it may turn out to be a clear night with low 'mins' recorded).

Hi Gray-Wolf,

Actually for the purposes of CET calculation the month ends at 1900 BST tonight. Thus tonight's minima will have no bearing on the September CET but will be counted as the first minima for the purposes of calculating the October CET. Similarly, the first minima used to calculate the September CET is the night of August 31-September 1.

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Posted
  • Location: Torrevieja, South East Spain
  • Location: Torrevieja, South East Spain
Last night's minima were over CET-land were over 4C lower than the previous night. With the CET taking a big knock yesterday, this morning's minima are going to have a bigger effect, particularly as there is nothing to suggest substantially higher maxima today than yesterday. Whether the September record is broken or not now hangs in the balance.

Fairly new to this forum without much input but read alot. Anyway out of interest and living in the South of Spain now for 5 years, temperatures are still holding up on August highs apart from the welcome cooler nights. At 1.0 pm yesterday the temperature in Torrevieja ( Costa Blanca ) was 36c with any breeze coming directly from Africa, we are centred at present in a large low pressure system. I look forward to your comments.

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If Philip's right that Hadley is 0.1C above Manley then we should still be safe for the record.

I have to admit since the shenanigans over the July record I've resigned myself to accept the Met Office as custodians of the 'official' figure, with Philip's figure being an extremely important adjunct. No offence meant by that at all, just the sort of reality we're in. With one or two friends in the Met O I'm pushing to see if I can get a further take on this. Trouble is, mine don't work in the CET part (though nearly).

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Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
If Philip's right that Hadley is 0.1C above Manley then we should still be safe for the record.

I have to admit since the shenanigans over the July record I've resigned myself to accept the Met Office as custodians of the 'official' figure, with Philip's figure being an extremely important adjunct. No offence meant by that at all, just the sort of reality we're in. With one or two friends in the Met O I'm pushing to see if I can get a further take on this. Trouble is, mine don't work in the CET part (though nearly).

I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but it is important to remember how much kudos the CET has as an international metric, due to its age and the recognition of its (relative) reliability. You could say that we are especially fortunate in the UK to have two excellent records to work with, whilst other countries (even the USA), struggle to produce consistent and universally accepted figures for one dataset. The duplication of series is an enormous scientific benefit, for a host of reasons; long may they continue. But there can be no question about which set of figures, in the 'bigger picture', is the more significant.

PS: And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,

Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

Thanks for the reminder, WIB.

:)P

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but it is important to remember how much kudos the CET has as an international metric, due to its age and the recognition of its (relative) reliability. You could say that we are especially fortunate in the UK to have two excellent records to work with, whilst other countries (even the USA), struggle to produce consistent and universally accepted figures for one dataset. The duplication of series is an enormous scientific benefit, for a host of reasons; long may they continue. But there can be no question about which set of figures, in the 'bigger picture', is the more significant.

PS: And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,

Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

Thanks for the reminder, WIB.

:)P

Well, I don't know. You know my take on this, that the new custodians should have continued the Manley series and then set up the Hadley series as an adjunct (nice langauge, P3 "International metric - even better! Just watch that thesaurus doesn't stick on the way down, wont you <_< ). They could have then tested the effects of urban warming in the UK against the Manley series, by using the Hadley appurtenance ( :) ). I forsee another scrap about whether a record has been set tomorrow; "scrap" was exactly the same phrase I used on the 30th July, I think! I remember the scrap rather well!!

I wish sui re ke's hope, that the record gets well and truly broken, had been realised, but I fear that won't happen. Could be better for my beer reserves, but I'm really rooting for it to go. Can we stop this rain getting to central England please and would someone stoke up the sun, just for today?

Paul

Be no more a king

But learn the dreaming wisdom that is yours.

(spoken by a familiar)

Edited by Dawlish
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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Well the Sun is 'stoked' here so far- now 16.1c rising fast. Fairly sharp rise after a chilly min of 9.7c (coldest I've seen in ages). If the cloud keeps off it'll hit 20c I'm sure. Depends how fast that rain comes up from Devon (hoping it goes away completely as pub crawls as less fun in the rain!).

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Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
It's not the daytime tmeps that have really amazed me this September, but the very mild night time mins, with some nights having mins above the daytime average, which is really quite amazing!

The rrecord could yet go but indeed the CEt has taken a dip last night which makes it less likely. Either way this has been another amazingly warm month!!!!

But do we know what the figure was at this stage yesterday to 2 decimal places? What I mean is that it might only have fallen from 16.76 to 16.71 - a not too frightening 0.05C.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The CET yesterday was 16.89C, so the CET droped by 0.18C, maxima in the CET zone looks to be just under 20C, which is around average, so i would expect the final Manley CET to be 16.5*C.

In summary, September 2006 will most likely not be the warmest on record on the Manley CET series.

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Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
The CET yesterday was 16.89C, so the CET droped by 0.18C, maxima in the CET zone looks to be just under 20C, which is around average, so i would expect the final Manley CET to be 16.5*C.

In summary, September 2006 will most likely not be the warmest on record on the Manley CET series.

Are you sure that was after the end of the 28th? I'm pretty sure it was 16.8 for the 1-28.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Phillip Eden posted the exact figure in the September CET thread for the 1-28th September period at 16.89, making the CET 16.8C as it is rounded down, with a cold night last night and maxima around average today, the CET will most likely drop to 16.5C, when rounded to one decimal place.

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Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
Phillip Eden posted the exact figure in the September CET thread for the 1-28th September period at 16.89, making the CET 16.8C as it is rounded down, with a cold night last night and maxima around average today, the CET will most likely drop to 16.5C, when rounded to one decimal place.

16.89 gets rounded down?

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
16.89 gets rounded down?

16.9C I would have thought also......

I think a CET above 16C is pretty safe now, and we couldnt be going into a more perfect 24 hours for this to happen...

Cloud cover should keep temperatures up tonight with showers moving through on a trough, temperatures should stay up into double figures around the CET zone area. Also tomorrow the main band of showers moves away leaving most of the CET area with sunshine, so somewhere near 20C should preserve at least a CET is 16.5 but more like 16.6

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