The Warmest September ever recorded?

[osmposm]

We're getting desperately off-topic, I know, but I'm afraid I'm with Paul on this, Roger: urban sprawl does not begin to account for our dramatically warmer winter temperatures - by day as well as by night. There are contemporary accounts of winter 1728-9 that say that passage along the Thames became difficult and dangerous owing to large areas of floating ice. Yes, the river had broader and shallower margins, slower flow, lower salinity (London Bridge acted like a weir) and all the rest, but NO recent winter could have created those - even if you'd magically removed the entire city and its heat.

As for your "fairly cold one in 1716"....I don't know what the CET record shows, but the winter was bitter for seven weeks (end Nov-9th Feb, old-style dates I presume). The Thames was frozen solid, with a fully-blown Frost Fair - printing presses, roast oxen et al. The cold was also accompanied at times by "vast quantities" of snow that rendered the city "almost impassable". Um...FAIRLY cold??!!!

Edited October 1, 2006 by osmposm

[Dawlish]

Yes, a bit off topic, you are right osmposm!

Can you believe I woke up with some exitement to look at a temperature average?? So sad!

Philip has the Manley series at 16.59! I wonder what the others are? Comments later, Breakfast and walking the dog call.

Paul

Edited October 1, 2006 by Dawlish

[West is Best]

So by Philip's measurement the record is equalled (disregard 1/100ths which are at best a bit of a distraction and which obviously didn't exist in 'olden times'). 16.6C equals the warmest ever September on Philip's Manley series.

All eyes will now be on the Met Office Hadley figure. Itwill be published here: http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt perhaps as early as tomorrow.

Edited October 1, 2006 by West is Best

[parmenides3]

Doesn't really add much to the thread, but fyi:

September temperature records tumble

29 September 2006

This September looks set to be the warmest on record in the United Kingdom. The average UK temperature has been 15.4 °C, which is 3.1 °C above the long-term average. The previous record of 14.7 °C was set in 1949.

Historical climate records for the UK are kept at the Met Office in Exeter, and these show that all areas of the UK are on course to break their September temperature record. Night-time minimum temperatures, in particular, are high, with the UK value of 11.5 °C — nearly 1°C above the previous record of 10.6 °C, set in 1949.

Although there are still two days of the month to go (the above values are as of 9 a.m. GMT on 29 September 2006), climate experts at the Met Office are confident that records will be broken around the country, in many cases by some margin.

Courtesy MetO.

:)P

[Weather-history]

It is definitely going to be the warmest September in the Areal series for at least England and Wales.

I have mentioned that they have never been a year where 4 months have recorded a CET of 16.0 and greater. There hasn't even been a year where 4 months have had a CET of 15.5 or over.

Edited October 1, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Rustynailer]

In the link WIB provided it looks like this at the mo:-

2006 4.3 3.7 4.9 8.6 12.3 15.9 19.7 16.1 -99.9 -99.9 -99.9 -99.9 -99.99

I presume they will change the next -99.9 Septembers, tomorrow

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi RN. I'm not sure how the METO works, but it can sometimes take a few days to get the figure on their system. Pressumably, like most things, it probably has to be checked and approved before being published.

Still, it will be interesting to see where it comes in at.

Whether it a record, and equal record, or no record at all, overall it has been a well above average month for the CET region.

[Polar Continental]

It is definitely going to be the warmest September in the Areal series for at least England and Wales.

I have mentioned that they have never been a year where 4 months have recorded a CET of 16.0 and greater. There hasn't even been a year where 4 months have had a CET of 15.5 or over.

Yes it has certainly been a very warm September in Burton, my mean ended up at 16.7c, +3c above the CET.

Attached are my figures for for 2006 so far.

Burton_mean.xls

Look at the last 4 months :o

Paul

[Rustynailer]

Hi RN. I'm not sure how the METO works, but it can sometimes take a few days to get the figure on their system. Pressumably, like most things, it probably has to be checked and approved before being published.

Still, it will be interesting to see where it comes in at.

Whether it a record, and equal record, or no record at all, overall it has been a well above average month for the CET region.

Cheers Chris.

Russ :o

[Mr Sleet]

So by Philip's measurement the record is equalled (disregard 1/100ths which are at best a bit of a distraction and which obviously didn't exist in 'olden times'). 16.6C equals the warmest ever September on Philip's Manley series.

All eyes will now be on the Met Office Hadley figure. Itwill be published here: http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt perhaps as early as tomorrow.

It's already there , minus 99.9 C . Must have been a bit nippy in Pershore last night.

[Weather-history]

Hadley has put it as 16.8

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt

Edited October 2, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Snowly does it]

Hadley has put it as 16.8

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt

I was considering this last night, its actually astonishing. I'm right in thinking there have only been 3 16 plus Septembers ever right (recorded ones I mean)?

Now we are a full 0.7 degrees warmer than last year at this time.

Record number 2 for the year!

[Dawlish]

I was considering this last night, its actually astonishing. I'm right in thinking there have only been 3 16 plus Septembers ever right (recorded ones I mean)?

Now we are a full 0.7 degrees warmer than last year at this time.

Record number 2 for the year!

Yup, it is astonishing. It's also astonishing that the last 2 weeks of September ended up that warm! The gfs mid-month certainly weren't showing that and good on summer for going for a record so early!

The Tombs today speculates that this September, given the synoptics, would not have been this warm in the past. I'm sure somebody, in that paper, reads my posts on here and re-hashes them!

2 of the 12 monthly records down in one year. October last year missed out by a whisker. "Astonishing" is exactly the right word. I feel that the other 10 monthly records will all go by 2015.

Paul

PS reef! Good news to come on the bets thread.

Edited October 2, 2006 by Dawlish

[Snowly does it]

Yup, it is astonishing. It's also astonishing that the last 2 weeks of September ended up that warm! The gfs mid-month certainly weren't showing that and good on summer for going for a record so early!

The Tombs today speculates that this September, given the synoptics, would not have been this warm in the past. I'm sure somebody, in that paper, reads my posts on here and re-hashes them!

The Tombs is being overly clever, with an accepted rise on average of 0.2 degrees per decade, then these synoptics by simple maths would only have equalled the record until 10 years ago. Its a tautology - the world is warmer, therefore it is warmer.

Edited October 2, 2006 by snowmaiden

[West is Best]

I was considering this last night, its actually astonishing. I'm right in thinking there have only been 3 16 plus Septembers ever right (recorded ones I mean)?

Now we are a full 0.7 degrees warmer than last year at this time.

Record number 2 for the year!

Truly remarkable isn't it? The last of the really old records to go I think (Kevin?) - 277 years.

At least it's been well and truly broken too at 16.8C

[Snowly does it]

Truly remarkable isn't it? The last of the really old records to go I think (Kevin?) - 277 years.

At least it's been well and truly broken too at 16.8C

It is WIB it is. Hell, I might even start backing warm months in the CET competition at this rate.

What would be also remarkable imo would be to get an October of around 12, November and December as per last year and actually drop in yearly CET. After the last 4 month period, that would be remarkable too (at least to me).

Whatever else happens, 2 monthly records in a year is incredible.

[The PIT]

Yes it's really an interesting year. I wonder if October will go the same way. Country file had temps back up around 16C - 18C. Unless we have a dramtic temperture reversal October should also be a warm month.

[Summer of 95]

September has been the one month that has been long overdue some record-breaking or near record-breaking weather; in recent years we've had the warmest July, August, October, November on record; December 1995 equalling the record minimum, the sunniest November and December, the record wet April and near record Oct and Nov in 2000, all sorts of things in March (those minima in 2001, the cold first three weeks this year, the near-record warm 1997); the hot May 1992, Jan 1987 and 1990 and Feb 1986, 1990 and 1998- we've waited 100 years for anything like this in September

2006 has been thus far a fine year, the main letdowns being the long spells of boring cloudy nothingness in Jan and Feb, the wretched second half of May and very disappointing August- the last three months will determine whether it beats 1995 for the most exciting weather year I can remember.

[The PIT]

If you want too see how the months have changed for Sheffield from 1955 just have a look here.

http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/html/ave...55_onwards.html

September hasn't really changed all that much bar this year thats made a huge bump at the end. Other months have changed more however again Sheffield is only one small area in the UK.

[Summer of 95]

What we saw in September was the re-establishing of the July pattern - High pressure becoming dominant over Europe with winds predominantly from a southerly quarter for the UK.

I called it in wrong in that I saw the Atlantic becoming active leading to a zonal month with the Azores High the main feature. If you live in Ireland particularly then you will say it has been an Atlantic dominated month - but the blocking over Europe was the dominant factor for England and Wales especially.

September has become the month that has changed more than any other in the modern climate, we have to very much class it as a 'summer' month these days.

What September seems to have done is had a massive turnaround just recently; from the early 1980s which is as far back as I remember up until the late 1990s I don't really remember any substantial warm sunny weather in September; in fact the run of Septembers as recently as from 1992-1996 seemed particularly autumnal. However there has been a dramatic switch culminating this year in us finally having some record-breaking weather.

[Weather-history]

.

September has become the month that has changed more than any other in the modern climate, we have to very much class it as a 'summer' month these days.

Actually it was the other way around until very recently, June and September were months that seem to be least affected by the "modern" climate and this was borne out in their 30 year averages

Sept

1971-2000: 13.7

1961-90: 13.6

Compared to

Jan and Feb whose 30 year averages have gone up by 0.4C

Edited October 2, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

September: 16.8

There have been just 49 Augusts warmer than this in the whole CET list and was warmer than any month between September 1984 and June 1989

Even more amazing, it was warmer than any month between and including September 1959 and June 1971 with only July 1969 equalling it.

[Upgrade]

It has been the most bizarre year. God knows what's happened to the horse chestnut trees round about me (south london). we had the awesome heat in July which resulted in massive leaf fall in the cool august, and i walked past a couple of the mature trees yesterday and after septembers heat, they have started sprouting new green leaves and flowering candles again in parts. i have never seen this before.

lets hope oct is warm and we can have spring all over again!

[Dawlish]

Actually it was the other way around until very recently, June and September were months that seem to be least affected by the "modern" climate and this was borne out in their 30 year averages

Sept

1971-2000: 13.7

1961-90: 13.6

Compared to

Jan and Feb whose 30 year averages have gone up by 0.4C

Yes, I agree, Kevin. I've always seen September as anomalous and despite this record, I don't think that has changed. Perhaps it, and June, don't fit the warming pattern as well, because they are "change" months, rather than the "warmest" months. Pure speculation, of course, but September has not adhered to the changing climate pattern in the same way as most other months have.

Edited October 2, 2006 by Dawlish

[Snowly does it]

It has been the most bizarre year. God knows what's happened to the horse chestnut trees round about me (south london). we had the awesome heat in July which resulted in massive leaf fall in the cool august, and i walked past a couple of the mature trees yesterday and after septembers heat, they have started sprouting new green leaves and flowering candles again in parts. i have never seen this before.

lets hope oct is warm and we can have spring all over again!

My rose bushes have gone bananas this last week, I have never seen them bloom like it!