Autumn and Winter discussion...

[pottyprof]

With runs like those Paul.. I wonder how the odds would change..??

Boss man Paul.. very interesting stuff.. just curious as to how accurate its been over summer??.. I understand it did very well in predicting the highs of july and the cooler august.. it seems to be far more stable than GFS in the +144 areas too..

[Bottesford]

Cheers for info peeps. '87 looks by far the coldest then. Fairly mild in Iceland though! Bet we've never seen the -25 line... (nor the +25 line!)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cheers for info peeps. '87 looks by far the coldest then. Fairly mild in Iceland though! Bet we've never seen the -25 line... (nor the +25 line!)

Take a browse through chart archives and see how the cold spells came about. The 87 was as close as one can get to a true siberian blast. The HP cell was there over northern Russia and retrogressed towards us bringing its cold with it. 79 came from GHP ridging to Scandi and the cold air fed towards us down the eastern flank of Scandinavia and then westwards towards us. 56 there was a permanent Russian HP way to our east with a westward ridge. We had a breakawy HP cell which wandered over us then linking with GHP then the Russian HP and with a large LP system situated over Northern Germany then pushed the coldest air of the month across us.

Iceland was relatively mild beacuse they were experiencing S/SE winds at the time

BFTP

Edited October 4, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Although heavy snow fell in the day or so following the end of Feb 05 example it is a pity that the second phase of properly cold air advected around the Greenland High was not pulled further west as pressure did not stay high to the north east and advect that coldest sub -15 air right over us other than clip the edge of the south eastern corner. Instead pressure (having been high to advect the first easterly air over us ) fell over Scandinavia and the coldest air was sent southwards into europe.

A re-set of the pattern at that stage was what we wanted!

Of the other examples, of course I should have included the Feb 79 example with those fantastic blizzards!

Tamara

Indeed we just missed the best. Just before I go back to bed [full of cold..shaky] check the charts for Feb 69, the easterly gales in the SW around 19th Feb were awesome...windchill was very severe and talked of much by my elders in the family :o

Ahhhhh here she is :o

BFTP

Edited October 4, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[mezzacyclone]

all this talk is not good for staying away from the seasonal wad on a white crimbo somewhere! Would the CFS provide insurance on that chart Paul? as last year i got hammered from the dusting over Norfolk petering out before reaching the beeb TV roof :o

Edited October 4, 2006 by mezzacyclone

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Folks off topic but would one of you regulars who post pictures or links kindly PM me with instructions on how to do it? Needs to be idiot proof guide mind you :o

BFTP

Edited October 4, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tugmistress]

Folks off topic but would one of you regulars who post pictures or links kindly PM me with instructions on how to do it? Needs to be idiot proof guide mind you :o

BFTP

have pm'd you, hope it helps :o

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

have pm'd you, hope it helps :o

Got it thanks.

BFTP

[Snowyowl9]

Indeed we just missed the best. Just before I go back to bed [full of cold..shaky] check the charts for Feb 69, the easterly gales in the SW around 19th Feb were awesome...windchill was very severe and talked of much by my elders in the family

Ahhhhh here she is

BFTP

Great chart :o

I was born on that day :o

Hope no one notices :o

1969 was quite a year it seems.

[chilly milly]

Some great charts there. Brrr, I'm starting to feel quite chilly.

Hope you feel better soon BFTP.

[TEITS]

Whilst we are discussing classic winter chart's I shall post my favourites.

During the winter you will often hear the word "TRUE Greenland High" now the chart's below show a true Greenland HP and not one of those fake one's you see the GFS outputting every winter!. The exceptional 1981 event began with Artic air flooding S on the first chart. On the 11th heavy snowfall occured in the S due to a LP running along the Channel. After this snow event Max temps only reached -12C in Shawbury and was followed by min temps of -25C, even by early evening the temps had dropped to -22C!!. This was caused by a combination of light wind's/artic airmass/snowfall and was IMO one hell of a freeze.

[Snowyowl9]

That was an exceptional spell EYE... the river severn froze on that occasion.

What is the highest Gh pressure on past charts?

Actually I remember the bbc forcast for that record cold night... and they didn`t have any symbols that reached that low which was a -20 symbol!!! :blink:

S9

Edited October 4, 2006 by Snowyowl9

[summer blizzard]

Amazingly, upper air temperatures did not even reach -10C.

[Optimus Prime]

December 1981 sure was exceptional, 5th coldest December ever, coldest December in Scotland on record (although not that much colder then December 1995)

If that set-up was repeated there's no doubt even with background warming we would have a severe cold and snowy spell.

[SMU]

Eye in the sky..............

The 11th of December chart is one fond in most Southerns hearts.....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119811211.gif

1981 A wonderful month: the coldest this century (0.3C CET), and also very snowy. It started and ended mild, but there was a severe wintry spell from the 8th to the 27th. As the month started a warm front moving around a large high SW of Ireland brought temperatures of 15C to Aberdeen on the 3rd. As the high slipped away cold fronts brought progressively colder air south. Very cold air with hail and snow reached Shetland on the 4th. A depression moved southeast across the country on the 7th, bringing some very cold air south after it. Rain turned to heavy snow, with a sharp temperature fall, on the 8th. A high developed over Greeland. Freezing fog on the 10th. There were some exceptional temperatures in a northerly airflow. On the 11th, the minimum around Glasgow was -13C, and the maximum the next day only -5C. As a low crossed northern France on the 11th, there was widespread heavy snowfall in the south (26 cm at Heathrow). Clearing skies, fresh snow, still air, Arctic air, all add up to one thing: very low temperatures. Hence the following night it was even colder: the minimum at Shawbury (Shrops.) was -22.6C on the night of the 11-12th, a maximum of -12.1C the following day, and then a minimum of -25.1C on the night of the 12-13th. It was already down to -22C by 6pm on the 12th! This was the lowest reading in December this century until 1995. I remember we sat around cheering the termperature down those nights. Temperatures of -20C were quite widespread. Another depression gave a real blizzard (snow and wind speeds of 95 mph in the south west) on the 13th. A storm surge up the Bristol Channel led to extensive flooding. There was transport havoc in London following the snow on the 8th. Gales and flooding in the south on the 14th as it turned slightly milder, with gales and rain and a rapid thaw. More snow on high ground in the west on the 15th-16th, and in Scotland on the 17th. Flooding in the Bristol Channel area.High winds added to the widespread disruption: on the 19th the Penlee lifeboat capsized, with the loss of 16 hands. (A reminder that however much we enjoy severe weather, it can be tragic for some.) The weather then turned cold again, with more snow, particularly on the 20th in the east. There was snow on the ground, but no snow fall on the 25th, so not a technical white Christmas. There was a lot of dense freezing fog around. Snow lay for three weeks in many places. There was widespread flooding at the end when a thaw set in. I remember it being really cold: the Cam was frozen, and people pushed shopping trolleys across it. I was too apprehensive (or wise) to try this myself. Hence this is my most interesting December of the century.

Source Britweather UK-

Incidentally this year we nearly saw a repeat performance- only the jet was Approx 200 Miles to far South- amazing likeness though...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060303.gif

Heres to be on the Southern side of the PF this year- with loads of snow!!!!!!!!!

S

[Optimus Prime]

Amazingly Atmosphere temperatures were't that cold;

Much like December 1995 when -27c was recorded (Glasgow had a maximum of -13c);

The incredible cold snap of January 1987 had far lower atmosphere temperatures yet no minumum records were broken (during that cold spell some places in southern england failed to creep above -8c during daylight hours)

Edited October 4, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[Damien]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690220.gif

According to Wolfgang Roeder those kind of winter charts aren't gonna feel so remote anymore.

That February is just mindblowing. Maybe the Saudi Met Office were onto something. B)

[Thundersquall]

Don't get too excited just yet, but I think the first cold snap is not too far away.

In two weeks time or so, commencing from T+336 Hours, GFS predicts northerly airflow,

with a good High ridge to our west, ridging down from north rather than up from Azores.

Could be some interesting times ahead into late October.

Edited October 4, 2006 by Thundersquall

[frozen_north]

Looking at those charts its amazing to think the max temperature in Glasgow only reached -13C when upper air temperatures are at a relativly balmy -8C. Thats some temperature inversion.

[senior ridge]

Whilst we are discussing classic winter chart's I shall post my favourites.

During the winter you will often hear the word "TRUE Greenland High" now the chart's below show a true Greenland HP and not one of those fake one's you see the GFS outputting every winter!. The exceptional 1981 event began with Artic air flooding S on the first chart. On the 11th heavy snowfall occured in the S due to a LP running along the Channel. After this snow event Max temps only reached -12C in Shawbury and was followed by min temps of -25C, even by early evening the temps had dropped to -22C!!. This was caused by a combination of light wind's/artic airmass/snowfall and was IMO one hell of a freeze.

Definitely remember lamp post watching that one. Heavy rain in the evening turned to heavy snow overnight. Very active cold front.

[Polar Continental]

Ok, here we go again B) while were being reminiscent, the daddy of all charts, and what followed was the daddy of all winters, nothing really compares, Except maybe this chart, who would have thought this Bartlett would lead to the one of the coldest and snowiest winters ever!!!

[senior ridge]

Spot the difference - if it works!

Edited October 4, 2006 by senior ridge

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Except maybe this chart, who would have thought this Bartlett would lead to the one of the coldest and snowiest winters ever!!!

B)

[senior ridge]

can someone tell me how to insert the charts into a message

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hope you feel better soon BFTP. B)