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Autumn and Winter discussion...


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Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet

quote'BLAST FROM THE PAST'

Paul

Jan 1987 was similar too...that easterly blast did not look on...not to the untrained eye at least. That reminds me...expect the unexpected this Jan

Yes that is very true mate, Jan 87 was prob the most potent / appalling easterly outbursts ever known in this country, unfortunately it was relatively short lived compared to 1947, lets hope 2007 proves to be the B)

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
According to Wolfgang Roeder those kind of winter charts aren't gonna feel so remote anymore.smile.gif

Can you post his thoughts or lead us to where he quotes this?

BFTP

*Clicks fingers.*

I'm gonna enjoy this:

website1006000.jpg

website1006001.jpg

website1006002.jpg

website1006003.jpg

website1006004.jpg

B)

Edited by Damien
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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Nice to see people digging out the classic February 1991 chart.

About the same/slightly milder in severity as the January 1987 freeze.

Temperatures not climbing above -5c in London for two days, 48 hours of heavy snow accumilating to almost 1 foot and massive icicles. Here's a picture of regnts park London, February 1991;

regentspark26vm4.jpg

Hasn't been anything like that since.

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Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
The thundersnow event

Rrea00120040128.gif

What a scorcher of a chart B) and that thundersnow event we some real good snow from that!

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Most promising set of runs I've seen for cold lovers, and ones which very much chime with current thinking on weak to moderate +ENSO, a QBO becoming 0 by early January and AO / NAO becoming quite modal and overall neutral -neg:

website1006000.jpg

October very much as anticipated from the ENSO composites http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=791954

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=783215 with low pressure anchored to our SW throwing up warm and another above average month - but also check out events over Siberia with that negative anomaly propogating some serious early cold southwards.

website1006001.jpg

November continues the ENSO trend, mean low pressure to our west and over the UK, mild and wet - but cold air still being drawn southwards to our east.

website1006002.jpg

December - classic Atlantic pattern for El Nino with lowering of pressures from Florida to the Azores and interestingly, the jetstream going very quiet and southwards with a probable strong sub-tropical jet in evidence. First glimpse and instinct might be for those easterlies not to pack the punch, but bear in mind what may have gone on since October in that locale.

website1006003.jpg

January - a doozy - strong sub-tropical flow and weak, displaced polar jet flirting with the SW - potentially a very snowy projection. Big -ve NAO I would suggest and neutralish AO with a possible very weakly +ve or even switched QBO phase.

website1006004.jpg

Feb - the breakdown, with the NAO still negative so some potential there before the milder stuff heads in.

At present (we still have over 6 weeks to go) my thoughts would be very similar for October and November. Whether December follows suite is the major question at the moment. By far the biggest encouragement is the overlay of ENSO composites with current trend in Atlantic SSTAs and a strong hint for the sub-topical jet to be the major player on the hemispheric stage this winter.

GP

Edited by Glacier Point
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Posted
  • Location: Cockermouth, Cumbria - 47m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow
  • Location: Cockermouth, Cumbria - 47m ASL

autumn has returned in the alps - fresh snow last night on the Marmolada http://www.rolbox.it/atal/cam2.jpg

and the first decent frost slightly lower http://www.val-gardena.com/eng/page208.html

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Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Most promising set of runs I've seen for cold lovers, and ones which very much chime with current thinking on weak to moderate +ENSO, a QBO becoming 0 by early January and AO / NAO becoming quite modal and overall neutral -neg:

At present (we still have over 6 weeks to go) my thoughts would be very similar for October and November. Whether December follows suite is the major question at the moment. By far the biggest encouragement is the overlay of ENSO composites with current trend in Atlantic SSTAs and a strong hint for the sub-topical jet to be the major player on the hemispheric stage this winter.

GP

It will be interesting if it actually happens GP and it would increase my faith that advances may actually be being made in the science of LRF. I remain entirely sceptical as to whether any of this, by individuals, or by forecasting agaencies can deliver even reasonable accuracy, when talking about the weather in individual months 3 months (Jan) away. That doesn't reduce my interest in how these forecasts will pan out and my mind is open to change if their accuracy increases, over the years. It is also open to my scepticism hardening, should they be inaccurate and we get a mild winter. "Doubting Thomas", but hoping for improvements, is my present position.

Paul

Edited by Dawlish
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I take it all tomorrows fun is centred around that blob of Invest 97L that is approaching Biscay at the mo'?

I watched the airmass fall off Africa last week and, after the Cape Verde's, turn due north on a slow meander here. The Current airmass has 'rolled up' the warm feed that is about to land here (behind the rain) and he is rolling on in with it (and accellerating)

The fact that Issac's rem's are in the mirk today shouldn't be confused with tomorrows fun as, as I've seen, it's all to do with Invest 97L (or its remnants!).

*Check out the Eumetsat image and set it to 'full Disc' and for a 24hr period to see the recent developments and then the NHC's Meteo8 sat run which shows a longer time frame but with less detail.*

EDIT it had a real fun burst of convection as it passed the Canaries yesterday! I wonder if it'll have another go today? (Hybbrid anyone???)

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Most promising set of runs I've seen for cold lovers, and ones which very much chime with current thinking on weak to moderate +ENSO, a QBO becoming 0 by early January and AO / NAO becoming quite modal and overall neutral -neg:

GP

That answers my question that i was to put to Damien....Blue is HIGH PRESSURE and Red is LOW PRESSURE...correct? If so and i'm sure it is reading your post then the Jan forecast I will certainly go for...as folk know I have put the 1st week of Jan to be the pivotal point of the winter with Russian HP retrogressing towards Greenland. Just one other thing....1987 ring a bell B)

Certainly interesting times ahead and there is a very decent chance of 'correct' synoptics this winter as we enter the halfway mark.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Fingers crossed that current trends are sustained in the critical period coming up - it is not in the bag yet.

:o

Tamara

Indeed a good sentence... B)

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

The German Climate Model (Roeder) predictions are based on mean sea level pressure anomalies. Blue is not necessarily high pressure and red not necessarily low pressure but the pattern between the two is important.

It must also be remember that these are mean monthly projections where a +6 anomaly might vary considerably between say 1000 and 1030 mb in terms of daily values.

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines

Glacier point, thank you for your analysis, but I'm afraid I must disagree with you on one point:

Most promising set of runs I've seen for cold lovers, and ones which very much chime with current thinking on weak to moderate +ENSO, a QBO becoming 0 by early January and AO / NAO becoming quite modal and overall neutral -neg:

At present (we still have over 6 weeks to go) my thoughts would be very similar for October and November. Whether December follows suite is the major question at the moment. By far the biggest encouragement is the overlay of ENSO composites with current trend in Atlantic SSTAs and a strong hint for the sub-topical jet to be the major player on the hemispheric stage this winter.

GP

It will be interesting if it actually happens GP and it would increase my faith that advances may actually be being made in the science of LRF. I remain entirely sceptical as to whether any of this, by individuals, or by forecasting agaencies can deliver even reasonable accuracy, when talking about the weather in individual months 3 months (Jan) away. That doesn't reduce my interest in how these forecasts will pan out and my mind is open to change if their accuracy increases, over the years. It is also open to my scepticism hardening, should they be inaccurate and we get a mild winter. "Doubting Thomas", but hoping for improvements, is my present position.

Paul

It might interest both of you gentlemen to know that I agree with the interpretation on a certain other weather forum that the February forecast indicates not a massive mild(er) breakdown from the west but rather more of this stuff:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690220.gif

http://www.climaprog.de/website1006004.jpg

B)

And I was just wondering has anyone e-mailed Roeder/Climaprog about this yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The German Climate Model (Roeder) predictions are based on mean sea level pressure anomalies. Blue is not necessarily high pressure and red not necessarily low pressure but the pattern between the two is important.

It must also be remember that these are mean monthly projections where a +6 anomaly might vary considerably between say 1000 and 1030 mb in terms of daily values.

GP

I must clarify my view and understanding that are they suggesting a bias in pressure anomaly ie blue indicates higher and red lower and NOT actual pressure systems .

BFTP

It might interest both of you gentlemen to know that I agree with the interpretation on a certain other weather forum that the February forecast indicates not a massive mild(er) breakdown from the west but rather more of this stuff:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119690220.gif

http://www.climaprog.de/website1006004.jpg

:o

And I was just wondering has anyone e-mailed Roeder/Climaprog about this yet?

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
Assuming these charts and patterns were actually to come about - I don't think GP was necessarily saying a massive mild breakdown. That Feb 69 chart is a classic battleground chart and in these sitautions there are sometimes milder incursions from the south-west before the cold fights back again. That is certainly what used to happen frequently in those days.

I think, perhaps, that is the kind of thing he might have suggested - but obviously he will answer much better than me on behalf of himself if he wishes

B)

Tamara

Certainly Tamara. The warm SSTAs that may be a significant factor in delivering cold could equally be our downfall for the Feb period if (and that at this juncture is a large if) with all that mild air swamping in from low pressures to the west and SW.

Very much speculative at this stage though, but constructive debate because this pattern will start to verify at the end of this month. I would suggest that we should look for cold surface temp anomalies across western / central Russia and a coninuation of the present pattern across western Europe with low pressure anomalies out to the SW.

currently over the last 10 days of September .....

not bad, and GFS / ECM out to t144 maintain the ridging over Scandinavia which makes dowsntream trough digging cold air south into Russia a good bet to continue. Promising to watch and monitor over the next few weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Location: West Sussex

Regarding the blue and red illustrated areas on those Dec/Jan/Feb sea pressure predictions, one would have to assume the blues are low pressures going by the tightness of 'ico bar-esque' gradients... and the much less steep differences in the red/ high pressure areas.... even if these are sea pressure anomalies, and how this relates to air pressure behaviour.

I do hope I'm wrong though. I remember the same debate this time last year over these charts.

Can anyone clear this up?

Edited by Big Bear
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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
Regarding the blue and red illustrated areas on those Dec/Jan/Feb sea pressure predictions, one would have to assume the blues are low pressures going by the tightness of 'ico bar-esque' gradients... and the much less steep differences in the red/ high pressure areas.... even if these are sea pressure anomalies, and how this relates to air pressure behaviour.

I do hope I'm wrong though. I remember the same debate this time last year over these charts.

Can anyone clear this up?

As far as I can make out, the blue lines, with +ve values attach indicate a positive anomaly from the long term average in terms of SLP; i.e. if over Denmark the long term SLP for January is 1007mb (just a random figure), then W.Roeder indicates that the average SLP for Jan '07 will be somewhere in the region of 1019mb.

Obviously the opposite applies for the red lines with -ve values attached.

Hope that helps.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
As far as I can make out, the blue lines, with +ve values attach indicate a positive anomaly from the long term average in terms of SLP; i.e. if over Denmark the long term SLP for January is 1007mb (just a random figure), then W.Roeder indicates that the average SLP for Jan '07 will be somewhere in the region of 1019mb.

Obviously the opposite applies for the red lines with -ve values attached.

Hope that helps.

I would concur. This old chestnut seems to get as many outings as the 1947, 1963, 1987 (and now seemingly 1969) charts!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
As far as I can make out, the blue lines, with +ve values attach indicate a positive anomaly from the long term average in terms of SLP; i.e. if over Denmark the long term SLP for January is 1007mb (just a random figure), then W.Roeder indicates that the average SLP for Jan '07 will be somewhere in the region of 1019mb.

Obviously the opposite applies for the red lines with -ve values attached.

Hope that helps.

Yes and this is confirmed by looking at the predicted temperature anomolies for Berlin.

http://www.climaprog.de/website1006007.htm

Roeder is going for an extremely cold winter based on this methodology - of course it remains to be seen how things will actually turn out.

:angry:

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