Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Autumn and Winter discussion...


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Paul (D)

I am not sure why you posted a whole reply from SM with no comment.

Pardon me for being thick but which part is important and why have you made no response to it?

cheers for some explanation.

John

Interesting article here on the CFS if anyone is interested:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/cfs_vresolution.htm

yep, an interesting read.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My argument centres completely on the odds of a colder, or a warmer winter occurring, Steve. I have no synoptic device for forecasting this winter. The synoptic forecasts issued by individuals are not accurate enough to be useful, whereas my probabilty forecast, based upon a GW trend, has been highly accurate, compared to any other method presently being used.

"the issues we had before" were mainly due to the fact that you find it hard to believe that the forecasts for a cold winter can suffer such a statistically devastating argument. My own arguments stayed at the same level all the way through, as they will continue to do - but they will focus on the UK's reactionj to the GW trend being the best indicator of what kind of a winter we are going to have. Synoptic forecasts of cold/mildness in a coming winter, at this distance are so flawed in terms of their accuracy as to be next to useless. Thus, others, following those forecasts and "ramping" a cold winter as a result, make someone who doesn't believe in the accuracy of those forecasts in the first place, just shake their head.........and nobody can claim their forecasts are accurate.

And I mean - nobody. No matter how much somebody might really, really, want to believe them.

Paul

The issues we had before was a general comment about the board - not about just you & I- just incase thats what you though I meant-

Ive highlighted your first paragraph-

Forgive me Paul but Ive just checked the date you joined & it was Nov 05- which means you have had only 1 opportunity to present a GW Alligned Winter forecast- which would have been 05/06- This then cant have been accurate as you would have gone for mild when infact in was just below average-

Can you point me in the direction of any other GW alligned LRF's you have made??

Best regards

Steve

Edited by Steve Murr
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
Interesting article here on the CFS if anyone is interested:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/cfs_vresolution.htm

I am interested Paul, thanks. It doesn't talk about accuracy for the UK weather/climate, instead it talks about accuracy in predicting SST's for ENSO, but it does give me hope that the post seasonal analyses of the accuracy of the CFS may be better than some other agencies. crossed fingers, eh?

Paul

Paul (D)

I am not sure why you posted a whole reply from SM with no comment.

Pardon me for being thick but which part is important and why have you made no response to it?

cheers for some explanation.

John

yep, an interesting read.

I think you caught me in mid-edit, John! :D Try reading it now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

Excellent post by Steve as usual. It is most unusual to have two strongly negative NAO months during the autumn, although it should be noted that with the exception of 1968 it is rare for the NAO not to switch from negative to positive within a month or two. I guess the point to note is that it is strongly negative and is likely to be again over the winter months at some point. 1968 was notable for a particular anomaly in salinity which rather sets it apart from other years and there is not much evidence at the moment for something similar this year. I am not a great fan of analogues either, although I would have said 1998 (cold in the north ,not in the south) was a possible match taking into account the NAO index since January.

Definitions of the Atlantic half of the AO and the NAO are subtly different and to some extent this may be reflected in the indexes. What we have noticed over the last month or two is the greenland High being around quite a lot and for high pressure to stick over the continent. This has lead to some pretty warm temperatures up into scandinavia at times and similarly to the north of Canada , leaving ice and cold to build to our north. Ice build up to the east of greenland in the greenland sea at this point in the season has been linked to high pressure over that area during the winter.

A number of positive indicators for a cold spell during the winter.

Go read Steve's Post in the Learners area about Winter synoptics

An Ode To Winter

Edited by BrickFielder
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Excellent post by Steve as usual. It is most unusual to have two strongly negative NAO months during the autumn, although it should be noted that with the exception of 1968 it is rare for the NAO not to switch from negative to positive within a month or two. I guess the point to note is that it is strongly negative and is likely to be again over the winter months at some point. 1968 was notable for a particular anolmaly in salinity which rather sets it apart from other years and there is not much evidence at the moment for something similar this year. I am not a great fan of analogues either, although I would have said 1998 (cold in the north ,not in the south) was a possible match taking into account the NAO index since January.

Definitions of the Atlantic half of the AO and the NAO are subtly different and to some extent this may be reflected in the indexes. What we have noticed over the last month or two is the greenland High being around quite a lot and for high pressure to stick over the continent. This has lead to some pretty warm temperatures up into scandinavia at times and similarly to the north of Canada , leaving ice and cold to build to our north. Ice build up to the east of greenland in the greenland sea at this point in the season has been linked to high pressure over that area during the winter.

A number of positive indicator for a cold spell during the winter.

Thanks Brick.....

S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
The issues we had before was a general comment about the board - not about just you & I- just incase thats what you though I meant-

Ive highlighted your first paragraph-

Forgive me Paul but Ive just checked the date you joined & it was Nov 05- which means you have had only 1 opportunity to present a GW Alligned Winter forecast- which would have been 05/06- This then cant have been accurate as you would have gone for mild when infact in was just below average-

Can you point me in the direction of any other GW alligned LRF's you have made??

Best regards

Steve

Steve - s'oK, you're forgiven! There was life before net-weather, honest! I've been working on this since 1990, pre-Internet days. I remember getting school secretaries to type up my hand-written work! Last year, not on netweather, I went for a milder than average winter, as I've done every year since 1990. I was wrong for the first time in 10 years. I'll give you my winter forecasts for the next 10 years, if you like - every one will be milder than average. I'd expect to be correct between 70-80% of the time, perhaps more. If I am, I wonder which other agencies will be able to claim that kind of success rate? That odds/probabilities-based prediction of mine has achieved 90% accuracy over the last 10 years, with regards to winters, but it is a long-term prediction. One year will make very little difference.

Paul

Edited by Dawlish
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Guess!
  • Location: Guess!
YAWN!! I sense an argument coming on. Winter has not even started yet. :D Pitty this thread was going very well ;)

It's a good debate Icicles, with some really good info and argument. Get involved if you wiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me You'd like a colder winter; what's your reasoning?

Paul

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Steve - s'oK, you're forgiven! There was life before net-weather, honest! I've been working on this since 1990, pre-Internet days. I remember getting school secretaries to type up my hand-written work! Last year, not on netweather, I went for a milder than average winter, as I've done every year since 1990. I was wrong for the first time in 10 years. I'll give you my winter forecasts for the next 10 years, if you like - every one will be milder than average. I'd expect to be correct between 70-80% of the time, perhaps more. If I am, I wonder which other agencies will be able to claim that kind of success rate? That odds/probabilities-based prediction of mine has achieved 90% accuracy over the last 10 years, with regards to winters, but it is a long-term prediction. One year will make very little difference.

Paul

Lol good post Paul- However you wont get the colder 2 or 3 right- :D

Regards

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
It's a good debate Icicles, with some really good info and argument. Get involved if you wiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me You'd like a colder winter; what's your reasoning?

Paul

I hate seeing threads descend into pointless bickering. I never said I wanted a cold winter. In fact I said earlier I dont have a clue atm as to what way it may go. Whatever happens, happens, we cant influence the weather. No point in getting flustered about it. Im holding off judgement for a good while yet (and with good reason, since I got it so wrong last year ;) ), not even the MO knows what may happen. No way anyone here knows. Im enjoying this knowledgable debate though, really good stuff. Everyday Im looking at how the cold pooling is going up north. I reckon it looks rather good at this point. Better then last year. How relevant a good cold pool is at this point though, im not sure. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Steve Murr, having reveiwed the September NAO data, there is only one August-September match, which is 1986 and featured a strongly positive NAO October, if the NAO is not strongly positive for October, then i will be left guessing at the state of the NAO this winter and will have to go with the trend, which would be a stongly negative NAO in all winter months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Viking141
Updated Thoughts:

Hi Steve

Excellent post thankyou. In brief then, are we looking at a very very blocked start to 2007 with some quite severe weather for Jan/Feb? Also, when is you winter forecast due out.

:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Steve

Excellent post thankyou. In brief then, are we looking at a very very blocked start to 2007 with some quite severe weather for Jan/Feb? Also, when is you winter forecast due out.

:D

Hi Viking- can you just edit your post to take all my pics /link etc-so it keeps the thread compact-

As for the Winter forecast I will do One updated thoughts before November 1st- this is the last preliminary & also 1 day before the Meto Update-

Then the full forecast in mid to late November-

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Viking141
Hi Viking- can you just edit your post to take all my pics /link etc-so it keeps the thread compact-

As for the Winter forecast I will do One updated thoughts before November 1st- this is the last preliminary & also 1 day before the Meto Update-

Then the full forecast in mid to late November-

Steve

Looks like someone has already done it!! OK Cool look forward to your forecast, so are we potentially looking at a very blocked new year and snowy weather?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

Steve,

do you realise that it is exactly 1 year since you released the 2005/06 Winter ode?

AM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burnham-On-Crouch, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm (not hot) summers
  • Location: Burnham-On-Crouch, Essex

Wrong thread I know and will quite probably be ignored but................does anyone know when the first significant snowfalls are normally due for Lapland and Finland?

My daughter aged 11 and son aged 8 are both off there in 2 weeks with the school (5 days) and want to know about potential snow. I keep looking at that site with the Finland weather cams but alas nothing yet :D

Anyway, been an avid - no addicted lurker for ever - well ever since the site has been around. Only got round to joining last year and although I don't have any meaningful contributions you guys do keep me entertained with the chat and debate - so many thanks!

Love the build up to the winter by the way and the rollercoaster ride for potential snow - bring back the model tracker Steve! ;)

Edited by phantom forecaster
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Normally at this time of year you start to get snow in northern Scandinavia- indeed even places like Oslo and Helsinki can get significant falls and accumulations of snow although it rarely lasts long (an October in Oslo or Helsinki is analogous to a November in northern Britain, though the temperature decline through the month is sharper) At Murmansk the long-term average maximum temperature for October is in the 3-4C range.

However, I doubt it will happen anytime soon because a large high is set to anchor itself over central Europe and pull in warm SW winds across to the whole of Scandinavia, resulting in temperatures well above freezing. It won't be for at least another couple of weeks I'd have thought.

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burnham-On-Crouch, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm (not hot) summers
  • Location: Burnham-On-Crouch, Essex

Many thanks for the reply - won't tell the children though can't stand the sad faces!

Here's hoping for a turnaround in about 2 weeks time :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Many thanks for the reply - won't tell the children though can't stand the sad faces!

Here's hoping for a turnaround in about 2 weeks time :D

Day 10 Model ensembles indicate a transition away from the Euro high towards the Scandi trough....

All is not lost yet-Keep your eyes on the dates at around the 16th Oct for the potential transition...

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Well said by Steve. Yes, if the area can pick up a good W/NW'ly airflow around a Scandi trough, then there's every chance of some snow occurring by the time the kids go there.

A continental NE'ly or straight Arctic northerly would probably also do the trick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
Many thanks for the reply - won't tell the children though can't stand the sad faces!

Here's hoping for a turnaround in about 2 weeks time :D

Its still far too early too tell what the weather will be like in 2 weeks time but there is a chance that there will be snow. But dont get your childrens hopes up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burnham-On-Crouch, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm (not hot) summers
  • Location: Burnham-On-Crouch, Essex

hmmmmm, perhaps i WILL tease them a little with the potential, thanks guys!!! :lol:

By the way Steve, from Bexley area myself - sister still lives off the high road, I can be often spotted drinking over there :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Hi Steve

Excellent post thankyou. In brief then, are we looking at a very very blocked start to 2007 with some quite severe weather for Jan/Feb? Also, when is you winter forecast due out.

:lol:

1st 10 days of Jan will have potential record visits on this site :lol:

Dawlish

Unfortunately you have no proven track record...not to say you haven't got one but not on NW.. but also unfortunately your reposts come across as totally dismissive of Steve's knowledge and projections. You may not mean it...I don't think you do but shouts of 'I am right and cannot fail' and 'your stuff is pure guesswork' whiffs through the air. It may not sound nice Paul but it has come across like that and I read a lot of your posts hence why I think it is not intended. There was every chance your thoughts were echoed in the 20s and 30s and opposite thoughts at the end of the 60s and in all honesty I think you are basing your thoughts on AGW...otherwise why would one think we will continue to warm :lol: Lay out your average winter base period that you suspect winters will be above and I will assess and meet you on it :)

BFTP

Day 10 Model ensembles indicate a transition away from the Euro high towards the Scandi trough....

All is not lost yet-Keep your eyes on the dates at around the 16th Oct for the potential transition...

Steve

Here I go again :lol: ...but using my method that is 'likely' synoptic set up with switch for the Uk as witnessed last November...not as dramatic but similar ie a pretty cool late Oct.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...