Cold Winter THC Shutdown

[snowsure]

Sorry if it seems like Im asking daft questions at the mo but I dont have a lot of time to wade through scientific papers just now. Got my hands full studying for my all important final exams in just 4 weeks time (eek) so you'll forgive me for the lack of effort on my part at the moment!

Am I right in guessing that you are an OU student?

[parmenides3]

In a strange piece of climatological synchronicity, what should I find, but a discussion of the THC shutdown, centred around a letter from Carl Wunsch (oceanographer) to the Economist, about their article three weeks ago. It is worth reading the article, and the letter, and the other links, if you're not studying for your final exams.

http://www.realclimate.org/

:)P

Edited October 3, 2006 by parmenides3

[BrickFielder]

A good article and reasonably well balanced. The question is not one of shutdown but what are the changes which are taking place and what are the root causes of this.

Firstly it has been identified that some of the deep water formation sinks are no longer where they were ( Peter Wadhams Research). It has been suggested that there is a natural multidecadal swing between the north and south atlantic of the number of deep water formation areas, although researchers largely attribute this chnage due to global warming.

Secondly it has been identified that water moving north around scotland is noticeably less saline which would inhibit the formation of deep water.

Thirdly there is no obvious reduction in the gulf stream or volumes of returning deep water ,however there is evidence that mid to surface return flow southwards near africa is increasing.

This would tend to paint a picture of the north atlantic part of the THC having some substantial changes, possibly moving further south.

Decrease in Atlantic Circulation

Salinity

Peter Wadhams Research

Edited October 4, 2006 by BrickFielder

[parmenides3]

A good article and reasonably well balanced. The question is not one of shutdown but what are the changes which are taking place and what are the root causes of this.

Firstly it has been identified that some of the deep water formation sinks are no longer where they were ( Peter Wadhams Research). It has been suggested that there is a natural multidecadal swing between the north and south atlantic of the number of deep water formation areas, although researchers largely attribute this chnage due to global warming.

Secondly it has been identified that water moving north around scotland is noticeably less saline which would inhibit the formation of deep water.

Thirdly there is no obvious reduction in the gulf stream or volumes of returning deep water ,however there is evidence that mid to surface return flow southwards near africa is increasing.

This would tend to paint a picture of the north atlantic part of the THC having some substantial changes, possibly moving further south.

Interesting thoughts, Brickf. On the Wadhams findings, and their meaning, I think it's important to recognise that no clear conclusions have been reached about this; the multidecadal variation idea is only a hypothesis, and an untested one.

I think i read somewhere about the Scottish waters; can you find a link for us? Generally, the entire Atlantic has become less saline in recent years, but the differences are teeny-tiny, so far. If you want to check the state of the oceans in detail, the pdf CRR275, in post 22, is the IDES summary of the oceans' climate, 2005.

On the mid-surface flow acceleration around Africa; this one I don't know about, again, is there a link or a reference?

As I'm now off for the rest of the week with my chest infection, I'll knock out some thoughts on why a North Atlantic ocean current pattern shift might be possible.

:)P

Edited October 4, 2006 by parmenides3

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Good overview of risks here

(Apologies to mods but it seems sensible to start splitting the issues under Environmental Change into their own threads, now)

Interesting read the 'wilson'. Yes the NAD is shutting down and what a fabulous prospect of colder winters (i suspect it already has slowed down more considerably in the last year due to a cold winter (courtesy of the east) and a hot summer (courtesy of the east aswell). If this theory is true then GW acorss NW europe can be abolished as this is all the evidence we need to say that humans are not polluting the environment which is afftecting the Climate. it all makes sense - ice melting due to reduction in salt forcing more fresh water slowing down depressions and increasing chances of high pressure from the east. calm down ....

SNOW-MAN2006

[parmenides3]

Interesting read the 'wilson'. Yes the NAD is shutting down and what a fabulous prospect of colder winters (i suspect it already has slowed down more considerably in the last year due to a cold winter (courtesy of the east) and a hot summer (courtesy of the east aswell). If this theory is true then GW acorss NW europe can be abolished as this is all the evidence we need to say that humans are not polluting the environment which is afftecting the Climate. it all makes sense - ice melting due to reduction in salt forcing more fresh water slowing down depressions and increasing chances of high pressure from the east. calm down ....

SNOW-MAN2006

I don't think I'll bother.

:)P

[Dawlish]

Interesting read the 'wilson'. Yes the NAD is shutting down and what a fabulous prospect of colder winters (i suspect it already has slowed down more considerably in the last year due to a cold winter (courtesy of the east) and a hot summer (courtesy of the east aswell). If this theory is true then GW acorss NW europe can be abolished as this is all the evidence we need to say that humans are not polluting the environment which is afftecting the Climate. it all makes sense - ice melting due to reduction in salt forcing more fresh water slowing down depressions and increasing chances of high pressure from the east. calm down .... :blink:

SNOW-MAN2006

Time-scale SNOWMAN; time scale. Of course it all makes sense. It has happened before, probably many times, but the chances of you, or your near descendents seeing any colder winters as a result, are slim. Also, the NAD is, presently not shutting down.

As for "fabulous"; if you don't mind the UK economy going into recession, hundreds of thousands more people out of work, fuel shortages, even more reliance on unstable oil providers and geriatric deaths by the goodness-knows-how-many because of the cold, it would be fabulous, bacuse, you'd be able to have a nice time sitting watching the same white snow sitting on your back lawn for 4 months and complaining when the central heating breaks down.

Like I say, the chances of it happening are slim. Fortunately.

Paul

PS You could always go rent that silly Hollywood film again!

PPS I must remember to take my happy pill later!

Edited October 4, 2006 by Dawlish

[Guest Viking141]

Am I right in guessing that you are an OU student?

Er, no actually! I work for the Coastguard and am about to sit my first year final exams. If I pass I am fully qualified, if I fail I could be out of a job! Got to sit a theory paper, which incidentally includes meteorology as well as Search and Rescue etc, a chartwork/mapwork exam using Admiralty charts and O/S maps and a theory and practical radio exam (CSOC - Coast Station Operators Certificate). The amount of stuff we have to cram in in one year is huge so its a case of studying hard at the mo!

:blink:

[parmenides3]

Er, no actually! I work for the Coastguard and am about to sit my first year final exams. If I pass I am fully qualified, if I fail I could be out of a job! Got to sit a theory paper, which incidentally includes meteorology as well as Search and Rescue etc, a chartwork/mapwork exam using Admiralty charts and O/S maps and a theory and practical radio exam (CSOC - Coast Station Operators Certificate). The amount of stuff we have to cram in in one year is huge so its a case of studying hard at the mo!

:blink:

As a teacher of several years experience, I recommend only one thing: have faith in yourself. All of that is doable. Another strange cliche of modern life, encapsulated in the 'Gary Player' philosophy, is that the harder you work, the more confident you will be, the easier it will be, the better chance you have. Success in exams is, I reckon, about 75% self-belief. I'll post you a rabbit's foot. :)P

[Guest Viking141]

As a teacher of several years experience, I recommend only one thing: have faith in yourself. All of that is doable. Another strange cliche of modern life, encapsulated in the 'Gary Player' philosophy, is that the harder you work, the more confident you will be, the easier it will be, the better chance you have. Success in exams is, I reckon, about 75% self-belief. I'll post you a rabbit's foot. :)P

I agree. Im actually quite happy with how things are going at the moment and I know that its down to a bit of graft on my part. I dont want to just pass - I'd like to pass well.

:blink:

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Time-scale SNOWMAN; time scale. Of course it all makes sense. It has happened before, probably many times, but the chances of you, or your near descendents seeing any colder winters as a result, are slim. Also, the NAD is, presently not shutting down.

As for "fabulous"; if you don't mind the UK economy going into recession, hundreds of thousands more people out of work, fuel shortages, even more reliance on unstable oil providers and geriatric deaths by the goodness-knows-how-many because of the cold, it would be fabulous, bacuse, you'd be able to have a nice time sitting watching the same white snow sitting on your back lawn for 4 months and complaining when the central heating breaks down.

Like I say, the chances of it happening are slim. Fortunately.

Paul

PS You could always go rent that silly Hollywood film again!

PPS I must remember to take my happy pill later!

I went into overdrive yes but just think SNOW severe snow in winter and hot summers that would be perfect :blink: I was just highlighting the possibillitties if it did close down and it is slowing...

SNOW-MAN2006

[parmenides3]

I went into overdrive yes but just think SNOW severe snow in winter and hot summers that would be perfect :blink: I was just highlighting the possibillitties if it did close down and it is slowing...

SNOW-MAN2006

Then I have some good news for you, S-M06: This is an abstract from a paper produced for the IPCC AR4. Don't ask where I got it from, but there are more in the offing...

Basically, they did a shedload of different model runs, with different initial conditions, and they all came out with different results, BUT, having done their analysis, they reckon that the THC will slow down by 25% by 2100.

There you go. Snow for you grandchildren, perhaps...

:)P

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005.../2005GL024368.shtml

Edited October 4, 2006 by parmenides3

[SNOW-MAN2006]

well thats no good i want it now :blink:

SNOW-MAN2006

[parmenides3]

well thats no good i want it now :blink:

SNOW-MAN2006

If the mountain won't come to Mohammed...

[Dawlish]

well thats no good i want it now

SNOW-MAN2006

A lot of people wish it to be colder S-M. A lot of people are desperately hoping it will be colder, both in this winter and in the future. but whatever you wish for is not going to change the chances of something happening. :blink:

Paul

[The Penguin]

Basically, they did a shedload of different model runs, with different initial conditions, and they all came out with different results, BUT, having done their analysis, they reckon that the THC will slow down by 25% by 2100.

There you go. Snow for you grandchildren, perhaps...

:)P

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005.../2005GL024368.shtml

Steady 3p, the editor's summary actually refers to "up to 25%", which in the context of widely varying projections is pretty meaningless really.

[Gray-Wolf]

A lot of people wish it to be colder S-M. A lot of people are desperately hoping it will be colder, both in this winter and in the future. but whatever you wish for is not going to change the chances of something happening. :blink:

Paul

Now ,now Paul. Maybe we need say 'tara' to the sub zero CET month but I don't think we're quite done with Deep snow just yet! Most of the 'Snowy' folk want just that, snow and I think in our warming world snow events will still occur and in places like the U.K. It'll just be gone in the morning

[Dawlish]

Now ,now Paul. Maybe we need say 'tara' to the sub zero CET month but I don't think we're quite done with Deep snow just yet! Most of the 'Snowy' folk want just that, snow and I think in our warming world snow events will still occur and in places like the U.K. It'll just be gone in the morning

Now, now GW. I never, ever, ever, said we would! :blink: It is just the hoping that is clouding some people's judgements to the chances of that cold and cold winters happening.

[Gray-Wolf]

Now, now GW. I never, ever, ever, said we would! :blink: It is just the hoping that is clouding some people's judgements to the chances of that cold and cold winters happening.

They say the first stage of the grieving process is denial so maybe , now they've made a start, they will complete the process of Grieving for the 'Loss' of winter cold (I just don't want to be around when they get to the 'Blame' phase ).

[Gray-Wolf]

At least when we're bemoaning the lack of cold and snow we'll have bird-flu to worry us. Or kill us... And then we'll only definitely have ourselves to blame.

B)

[Dawlish]

B)

Comet?? Asteroid?? Volcanic eruption?? Massive 9.0 Earthquake?? Atlantic or N.Sea Tsunami?? There's all sorts of other things to worry about if you were of the worrying mind. I'd put an NAD shutdown lower on my list of worries than the Volcano, or the Earthquake - and we have not had either, in the world for a while, though neither of those will affect us directly.

Paul

[Gray-Wolf]

Comet?? Asteroid?? Volcanic eruption?? Massive 9.0 Earthquake?? Atlantic or N.Sea Tsunami?? There's all sorts of other things to worry about if you were of the worrying mind. I'd put an NAD shutdown lower on my list of worries than the Volcano, or the Earthquake - and we have not had either, in the world for a while, though neither of those will affect us directly.

Paul

After what Swan did to us I'm worrying about Comets at present B) !!!!

[osmposm]

.......Maybe we need say 'tara' to the sub zero CET month......

Um, Gone With The Wind, perhaps? And maybe we'll think of some way to get it back. After all....tomorrow is another day....

(Sorry, complicated and awful joke for movie buffs only)

[parmenides3]

More, new research: Jungclaus et.al. (September 2006); 'Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?'

Geophysical Research Letters, 33.

A good example of a simple question addressed in a scientific way. I have only read the summary, not the whole paper, but it's more bad news for the 'it could happen' camp, I'm afraid. The team used models to simulate a 'hosing' caused by a rapid diasppearance of the Greenland Ice Shelf and found that the AMOC (the THC, in other terms) slowed, at most, by 42%, from a 'high melt' scenario. But this was mainly located in the Irminger current and the Labrador Basin. They found that the Greenland-Scotland Shelf was not effected by the increase of (this amount of) freshwater. Their study concludes by saying that their findings '...suggest that abrupt climate change initiated by Greenland Ice Shelf melting is not a realistic scenario for the twenty-first century...'

Still, there could be something we haven't thought of yet...

:)P

Edited October 9, 2006 by parmenides3

[Gray-Wolf]

More, new research: Jungclaus et.al. (September 2006); 'Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?'

Geophysical Research Letters, 33.

A good example of a simple question addressed in a scientific way. I have only read the summary, not the whole paper, but it's more bad news for the 'it could happen' camp, I'm afraid. The team used models to simulate a 'hosing' caused by a rapid diasppearance of the Greenland Ice Shelf and found that the AMOC (the THC, in other terms) slowed, at most, by 42%, from a 'high melt' scenario. But this was mainly located in the Irminger current and the Labrador Basin. They found that the Greenland-Scotland Shelf was not effected by the increase of (this amount of) freshwater. Their study concludes by saying that their findings '...suggest that abrupt climate change initiated by Greenland Ice Shelf melting is not a realistic scenario for the twenty-first century...'

Still, there could be something we haven't thought of yet...

:lol: P

So the fact that we won't freeze as we re-locate any-one living within the flooded zones (up to 25ft above present sea level) is supposed to reassure us eh?