Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

TS Paul forms in E Pacific


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

Haven't noticed this on the forum yet:

Forecast advisory 4, courtesy of NOAA:

TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006

0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.0W AT 22/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.0W AT 22/0300Z

AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.1N 109.1W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.

34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.8N 110.2W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 110.9W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 105.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

Hurricane development is possible.

:)P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 6
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

Hello, anyone around?

This little thing is now a Cat'2, and a likely Cat'3 within hours ! A little bit of interest in late October for the storm freaks - myself included. :)

-----

Calrissian: Eyes on the Storm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

It's given a bit of a surprise and is now a category 2 hurricane. Expected to remain intact as it hits Mexico in the next few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

Most recent update from NOAA:

WTPZ32 KNHC 231438

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006

800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

...PAUL STRENGTHENING AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM

LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED

LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES

...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND

A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. PAUL COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO

INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115

MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.5 N...111.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200

PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

:)P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thanks P. Surprised there isn't more interest on this one. Sadly I think all the interest stays around the atlantic and gulf, which has been boring in comparision to the east pacific this year. This little storm is certainly intensifying quickly. The NHC were only forecasting Paul to become a cat 1 yesterday, and look where it is now! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
Thanks P. Surprised there isn't more interest on this one. Sadly I think all the interest stays around the atlantic and gulf, which has been boring in comparision to the east pacific this year. This little storm is certainly intensifying quickly. The NHC were only forecasting Paul to become a cat 1 yesterday, and look where it is now! :whistling:

:p You can please some of the people all of the time....etc.

The Pacific has thrown up some absolutely fantastic Storms this year, and a large number of them, too, yet you keep seeing people post that it's 'quiet' this season. I'm sure TH would have a view on that, to name but one. If Paul makes landfall in Southern California as a Cat. 3, I'm sure it'll make a few waves. In the meantime, there's plenty to look at for those who wish to see.

:)P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Paul now fighting against strong shear, looks very disorganised and is barely a hurricane at present.

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006

200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND PAUL NO LONGER

LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE

DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING

DETACHED. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE OUTSTANDING SOLUTION PROVIDED

BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FOR QUITE SOMETIME. THE

DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS...AND THIS IS ON THE

HIGH SIDE. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT

SOCORRO ISLAND...NEAR THE HURRICANE...INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE IS

NOT FALLING AND WINDS ARE NOT INCREASING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL

WEAKENING IS INDICATED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASING SHEAR.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO THE INITIAL

MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 005 DEGREES AT

ABOUT 7 KNOTS. PAUL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD

OF THE LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD

BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING PAUL'S CIRCULATION NEAR OR TO THE

SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...

AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. IT IS HARD

TO SAY HOW MUCH OF PAUL WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO GIVEN

THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND THE RAPID DECOUPLING OF THE

HURRICANE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL NOW

JOINS THE CLUB AND KEEPS A WEAKENING CYCLONE LINGERING NEAR THE

WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50-KT

TROPICAL STORM AT THE TIME PAUL APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THIS

APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 18.6N 111.4W 70 KT

12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 65 KT

24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W 60 KT

36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W 50 KT

48HR VT 26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...