South Pacific Re-awakens- Tropical Cyclone Xavier

[Somerset Squall]

Strengthening expected in the near future where it's likely to become a cyclone. The south pacific has been inactive since late April but there are cyclones in this area that form towards the end of the year (last being 2003).

[Supercell Hunters]

Looks like going by category 3 tomorrow!!!!!11 Awesome first severe TC of the non seasonal time! That is horrible for early signs for our wet. El Nino does nothing to do with it, i am confused!

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like going by category 3 tomorrow!!!!!11 Awesome first severe TC of the non seasonal time! That is horrible for early signs for our wet. El Nino does nothing to do with it, i am confused!

Now at cat 2 on the saffir simpson scale. Certainly is surprising Doh a dumb swear filter got the better of me Intensifying very quickly, who knows what Xavier can achieve!

[Supercell Hunters]

WTPS31 PGTW 240300 2006297 0248

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (XAVIER) WARNING NR 005

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

240000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 169.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 169.0E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

241200Z --- 14.0S 169.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

250000Z --- 15.2S 170.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

251200Z --- 16.5S 170.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

260000Z --- 18.0S 170.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

---

Insane category 4 but increasing more and turning SW'ly!!! Very nasty one for October!

[Somerset Squall]

I agree SH, very nasty, wouldn't be surprised to see a Category 5 out of this one. Certainly has bombed very fast!

[Supercell Hunters]

Severe winds has picked up to 234.9km/hr neat Van!!! Very insane!!!! TD forming into a cyclone near Xavier in next 12 hours!!! Insane!!!!!

Welcome to Aussie Forums!

[parmenides3]

Severe winds has picked up to 234.9km/hr neat Van!!! Very insane!!!! TD forming into a cyclone near Xavier in next 12 hours!!! Insane!!!!!

Welcome to Aussie Forums!

Own up; you're making this up, aren't you?

:)P

[Somerset Squall]

Severe winds has picked up to 234.9km/hr neat Van!!! Very insane!!!! TD forming into a cyclone near Xavier in next 12 hours!!! Insane!!!!!

Welcome to Aussie Forums! :o

Is the new TC nearer to Australia? I see Xavier is coming to an end now, has undergone rapid weakening in the past 24 hours. But 234.9km/hr? I finding that hard to believe!

[Supercell Hunters]

That what i heard on the news from Van islands, on eastern seaboard while category 4. Seems stalling now! Another cyclone coming up!