Late October 1997

[Summer of 95]

To relieve the boredom of yet another mild wet October, I find myself reminiscing about the last week of October 1997. After a month that had started off warm with temps up to around 20C, the last week featured a dramatic changearound with night time temperatures plummeting. As I recall the colder air felt its presence felt first at the weekend 25-6th and it was I think the Tuesday or Wednesday night that was the coldest- widely below -5 across a large area including here, Birmingham airport I think had its coldest October night for decades with around -7. Accompanying these frosts were some fogs- the only time since 1993 I remember any proper autumn nights with fog and frosts. This week was such a contrast to almost every last week of October from 1998 to present, which seems set in stone to be a time of torrential rain and mild temperatures.

Over much of the Midlands (including round here and at Birmingham) and a few other places, this last week of October produced the lowest temperature of the whole 1997/8 winter.

[Weather-history]

Here's the article I wrote months ago on the weatheroutlook forum about October 1997

October 1997 had an EWR average of 74.7mm, was the sunniest October since 1959 across England and Wales with an average of 128.7 hours and had a CET of 10.2

It was an odd month with notable warm and cold spells. The first 6 days were notably warm with 26C recorded in Essex on the 1st. There was then a notably wet spell from the 6th to the 15th with low pressures tracking across the UK. During this wet spell, there was an interlude of cold northerly winds on the 12th and 13th bringing air frosts to many northern parts.

Low pressure to the west of the UK pumped up very warm southerly winds on the 17th and temperatures rocketed in the sunshine with 25.9C at Nantmor. Pressure then was building across Iceland pulling down very cold northerly winds along it's eastern flank and this thrusted southwards across the UK bringing sharp frosts to many areas during the last few days of this month.

Here's a selection of the highest maxima and lowest minima for these stations recorded during this month indicating the wide temperature variations during this month.

Aviemore Highest Max: 18.0C Lowest Min: -6.5C

Aberdeen Highest Max: 22.0C Lowest Min: -1.7C

Glasgow Highest Max: 16.5C Lowest Min: -6.9C

Manchester Highest Max: 21.0C Lowest Min: -1.8C

Birmingham Highest Max: 22.4C Lowest Min: -7.0C

Heathrow Highest Max: 25.5C Lowest Min: -2.5C

Cardiff Highest Max: 19.4C Lowest Min: -0.6C

Belfast Highest Max: 18.5C Lowest Min: 1.5C

[damianslaw]

On 23/10/2006 at 09:55, Weather-history said:

Here's the article I wrote months ago on the weatheroutlook forum about October 1997

October 1997 had an EWR average of 74.7mm, was the sunniest October since 1959 across England and Wales with an average of 128.7 hours and had a CET of 10.2

It was an odd month with notable warm and cold spells. The first 6 days were notably warm with 26C recorded in Essex on the 1st. There was then a notably wet spell from the 6th to the 15th with low pressures tracking across the UK. During this wet spell, there was an interlude of cold northerly winds on the 12th and 13th bringing air frosts to many northern parts.

Low pressure to the west of the UK pumped up very warm southerly winds on the 17th and temperatures rocketed in the sunshine with 25.9C at Nantmor. Pressure then was building across Iceland pulling down very cold northerly winds along it's eastern flank and this thrusted southwards across the UK bringing sharp frosts to many areas during the last few days of this month.

Here's a selection of the highest maxima and lowest minima for these stations recorded during this month indicating the wide temperature variations during this month.

Aviemore Highest Max: 18.0C Lowest Min: -6.5C

Aberdeen Highest Max: 22.0C Lowest Min: -1.7C

Glasgow Highest Max: 16.5C Lowest Min: -6.9C

Manchester Highest Max: 21.0C Lowest Min: -1.8C

Birmingham Highest Max: 22.4C Lowest Min: -7.0C

Heathrow Highest Max: 25.5C Lowest Min: -2.5C

Cardiff Highest Max: 19.4C Lowest Min: -0.6C

Belfast Highest Max: 18.5C Lowest Min: 1.5C

Those saying upcoming warmth unusual... not that so.. see what happened in 1997.

[LetItSnow!]

Looking at the synoptic charts for Oct. 1997, the word bipolar comes to mind. This month literally had every weather type you can imagine. I think Apr. 1988 is a spring month that was similar in terms of alternating dry/wet/warm/cold weather. It makes sense that month months are pretty much exactly average in terms of temperature.

[Summer8906]

This was a very interesting month as others have said.

A real SAD-buster as well, unlike the following month.

Main memories I have are a continuation of the warm dry weather of September for the first few days. Then on the first Monday (which would make it the 6th) we had very late in the year thundery skies on a warm and humid day, with Ac cast and the like visible. There was no actual thunder, just rain, though. Then followed a wet zonal spell - I can't remember exactly for how long - but I do remember that wonderfully warm sunny Saturday on the 18th. I do recall Sunday 12th being brighter in a northerly too, as mentioned above.

Initial forecasts then were for a further breakdown to unsettled conditions however as already said something very different happened. Another 'thundery' low approached late on Sun 19th, with more late-in-the-year thundery skies on another warm day, though rather than moving overhead and being followed by Atlantic air, it stuck out to the SW and strong easterlies started moving in, instead, preventing any Atlantic lows from reaching us. After a cold cloudy Monday 20th there then followed an incredible sunny spell with lowish daytime temps and very low night temps for the remainder of the month, and indeed into the first two days of November.

Things of course deteriorated then, with all of Nov and most of Dec being pretty dire, as well as the first 18 days or so of Jan. Though the breakdown itself was synoptically somewhat interesting, a weak low moved up from Portugal on around November 3rd, rather resembling an Iberian heat low in the summer even though it wasn't remotely warm.

Perhaps October 1997 could be considered the final month of the period of frequent fine, dry settled weather that started in March 1995 - as during the millennial period, beginning in Nov 1997, wet cyclonic months were pretty common. But that's probably something for another post.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

4 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

This was a very interesting month as others have said.

A real SAD-buster as well, unlike the following month.

Main memories I have are a continuation of the warm dry weather of September for the first few days. Then on the first Monday (which would make it the 6th) we had very late in the year thundery skies on a warm and humid day, with Ac cast and the like visible. There was no actual thunder, just rain, though. Then followed a wet zonal spell - I can't remember exactly for how long - but I do remember that wonderfully warm sunny Saturday on the 18th. I do recall Sunday 12th being brighter in a northerly too, as mentioned above.

Initial forecasts then were for a further breakdown to unsettled conditions however as already said something very different happened. Another 'thundery' low approached late on Sun 19th, with more late-in-the-year thundery skies on another warm day, though rather than moving overhead and being followed by Atlantic air, it stuck out to the SW and strong easterlies started moving in, instead, preventing any Atlantic lows from reaching us. After a cold cloudy Monday 20th there then followed an incredible sunny spell with lowish daytime temps and very low night temps for the remainder of the month, and indeed into the first two days of November.

Things of course deteriorated then, with all of Nov and most of Dec being pretty dire, as well as the first 18 days or so of Jan. Though the breakdown itself was synoptically somewhat interesting, a weak low moved up from Portugal on around November 3rd, rather resembling an Iberian heat low in the summer even though it wasn't remotely warm.

Perhaps October 1997 could be considered the final month of the period of frequent fine, dry settled weather that started in March 1995 - as during the millennial period, beginning in Nov 1997, wet cyclonic months were pretty common. But that's probably something for another post.

You’ve got a point. Apart from February and May of 1998, most months after Oct. 1997 were wet. It was the end of the great drought of the mid-1990s and we’d be stuck in this wet pattern until Feb. 2003. Very, very wet period that lasted very long. If I’m quoting the history books correctly, the only very dry months in this period were 

 

Jul. 1999

January & March of 2000

Dec. 2001

Sep. 2002

Just 5 out of 64 months were notably dry. 

 

Anyway, apologies for going off topic but your comment interested me.  

[Summer8906]

30 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

You’ve got a point. Apart from February and May of 1998, most months after Oct. 1997 were wet. It was the end of the great drought of the mid-1990s and we’d be stuck in this wet pattern until Feb. 2003. Very, very wet period that lasted very long. If I’m quoting the history books correctly, the only very dry months in this period were 

 

Jul. 1999

January & March of 2000

Dec. 2001

Sep. 2002

Just 5 out of 64 months were notably dry.

Anyway, apologies for going off topic but your comment interested me.  

No worries, it's an interesting topic. August 1998 was dry and sunny in the south. In the south I think June and July 2000 were pretty dry too, though slightly cooler and cloudier than normal. Months that seemed wet (no figures, just from memory) include, by contrast:

Nov, Dec 1997

Jan, April, June, September, October, December 1998 (6 months of 12)

Jan, April, August, September, December 1999 (5 months of 12)

February, April, May, September, October, November, December 2000 (7 months (!) of 12)

March, April, October 2001 (3 months of 12, 2001 was a relatively benign year here)

February, March, May, October, November, December 2002 (6 months of 12)

The change here was right at the start of 2003, rather than in February.

So clearly more wet months than dry, with 1998, 2000 and 2002 seeming to be notably wet years, 1999 and particularly 2001 much less so. The run of wet Aprils was an interesting anomaly for the month which tends to be the most reliable for dry weather though the whole year.

January 2003 to July 2006 seemed another predominantly dry period though the calendar year 2004 was the exception, being another wet one. Earlier, we had other dry periods from around September 1988 to June 1992, and a wet period July 1992 to February 1995 - it really seemed to go from one to another during this period.

Currently we do seem to be in another wet run, starting in August 2019 with April and May 2020 being notable exceptions - and July 2016 to July 2019 was another relatively benign period. What''s more the current one, more so than the millennial one, seems to be very dull as well as wet!

Edited October 17, 2021 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

Yes June 2000 was dry here, as well as May & June 2001, and April 2002 (which would have been notably dry if not for the last 5 days!) 

Similarly to @Summer8906, the drier theme began here on 3rd January after the floods at NY, which then froze over in the oncoming cold spell. The later Atlantic spells in January weren’t all that wet. 
 

As for October 1997, It looks like a month I’d like to have experienced for variety. Alas I can’t really remember it being pretty young at the time. 

[Summer8906]

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yes June 2000 was dry here, as well as May & June 2001, and April 2002 (which would have been notably dry if not for the last 5 days!) 

Sorry, forgot about May 2001, that was a notably good month. Spoilt a bit by the foot-and-mouth countryside lockdown, which may be why it didn't come immediately to mind as you couldn't get out so much. (For the same reason, perhaps it's just as well March and April 2001 were wet!) June 2001 also predominantly fine, dry and sunny but there were a couple of short wet spells. July 2001 was an odd one being half cool and wet and half very hot!

8 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Similarly to @Summer8906, the drier theme began here on 3rd January after the floods at NY, which then froze over in the oncoming cold spell. The later Atlantic spells in January weren’t all that wet.
 

As for October 1997, It looks like a month I’d like to have experienced for variety. Alas I can’t really remember it being pretty young at the time. 

I was up north at the very start of Jan 2003 so can't remember anything notably wet, though the end of Dec 2002 was very wet.

Yes, Oct 1997 was a classic, up there with Oct 2003 and 2010 for varied Octobers with plenty of sunshine. Would add 1995 for its warmth and sunshine to complete the best Octobers of my lifetime. (I was also alive in Oct 1978 but too young to remember much detail about the weather - though it was apparently another good one. I do seem to remember a sequence of dry Sunday tea-times around twilight though).

Edited October 17, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

21 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Looking at the synoptic charts for Oct. 1997, the word bipolar comes to mind. This month literally had every weather type you can imagine. I think Apr. 1988 is a spring month that was similar in terms of alternating dry/wet/warm/cold weather. It makes sense that month months are pretty much exactly average in terms of temperature.

Yes, April 1988 as well as April 1991 are what I like to think of as the two most 'typical' or 'classic' Aprils, and what I think of when the phrase 'an average April' comes up. Each had a warm sunny spell of about a week (early in the month in 1988, just before mid-month in 1991) followed by a very rapid change to a cold northerly with snow about.  In 1988 snow fell to low levels in the south and then there was a further cooler fine spell, then a change to warm and wet on Friday 15th with some kind of cyclonic S-ly. I recall thunder being on the forecast on Sat 16th which was warm, dull, damp and humid, with 21C forecast despite the cloud - a big contrast from the cool and sunny conditions following the snow earlier in the week. There was another fine spell a bit later, for the weekend of 23rd/24th  (possibly a retrogression, can't remember) then more wet right at the end of the month, so pretty varied.

1991 followed its snow with a warmer, cloudyish but fairly dry SE-ly, followed, like 1988, with wet at the end of the month, just in time for the May Bank Holiday.

Looking at the archives, it seems that April 1968 was another one (cold and snowy - cool and sunny - warm and wet - warm and drier).

Edited October 17, 2021 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

No worries, it's an interesting topic. August 1998 was dry and sunny in the south. In the south I think June and July 2000 were pretty dry too, though slightly cooler and cloudier than normal. Months that seemed wet (no figures, just from memory) include, by contrast:

Nov, Dec 1997

Jan, April, June, September, October, December 1998 (6 months of 12)

Jan, April, August, September, December 1999 (5 months of 12)

February, April, May, September, October, November, December 2000 (7 months (!) of 12)

March, April, October 2001 (3 months of 12, 2001 was a relatively benign year here)

February, March, May, October, November, December 2002 (6 months of 12)

The change here was right at the start of 2003, rather than in February.

So clearly more wet months than dry, with 1998, 2000 and 2002 seeming to be notably wet years, 1999 and particularly 2001 much less so. The run of wet Aprils was an interesting anomaly for the month which tends to be the most reliable for dry weather though the whole year.

January 2003 to July 2006 seemed another predominantly dry period though the calendar year 2004 was the exception, being another wet one. Earlier, we had other dry periods from around September 1988 to June 1992, and a wet period July 1992 to February 1995 - it really seemed to go from one to another during this period.

Currently we do seem to be in another wet run, starting in August 2019 with April and May 2020 being notable exceptions - and July 2016 to July 2019 was another relatively benign period. What''s more the current one, more so than the millennial one, seems to be very dull as well as wet!

When listing the months I did, I was going via the England and Wales averages which is why some regional variation slipped through. I should have included Jun. 2000 though as that had an average rainfall total of 43mm. 

 

The reason I gave Feb. ‘03 instead of Jan. ‘03 was down to the fact January of that year had only slightly below average rainfall. I also tried to only list months that seemed notably dry than just on the dry side overall. Jul. 1999 really stands out in this whole period. 

 

Also, later you posted about Apr. 1968. Fascinatingly similar to Mar/Apr this year and what happened in that year, though Apr. 1968 was much milder than April this year. 

Edited October 17, 2021 by LetItSnow!

[damianslaw]

I remember notable frosts at the end of October 1997.

Noting other comments about dry and wet periods... 1988 - summer 92 was a dry one especially in the south, then we had a very wet period through until Spring 1995, then a dry period lasting until autumn 1997 with the odd wet month thrown in such as May, June and August 1997- you could say the dry them broke in May 97. Then a very wet period generally lasting through until early Feb 03, then a dry period until Autumn 06 in the main, then a wet period lasting until end of 2008, then a dry theme in the main until Spring 11 with some exceptions, Nov 09, then a very wet spell lasting through until early 2016, then somewhat drier until autumn 18, since mostly wet with some exceptions though, Spring 20, April 21 etc.

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I remember notable frosts at the end of October 1997.

Noting other comments about dry and wet periods... 1988 - summer 92 was a dry one especially in the south,

It's interesting how few really wet spells I remember in this group of winters in particular. Mid-December 1989, mid January to mid February 1990 (the Burns Storm period), and that was more or less it.  With three good summers on the trot, too, this was a notably benign spell and one when I thought that the southern English climate in particular was changing to something more closely resembling central western France.

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

then we had a very wet period through until Spring 1995, then a dry period lasting until autumn 1997 with the odd wet month thrown in such as May, June and August 1997- you could say the dry them broke in May 97.

Though here neither May nor August 1997 were notably wet - May 1997 was fairly sunny with a wettish spell mid-month. August 1997 had a short warm, humid wet spell just before the notable heat and an autumnal few days at the end, but again wasn't notably wet; November 1997 was when I really noticed it.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Also, later you posted about Apr. 1968. Fascinatingly similar to Mar/Apr this year and what happened in that year, though Apr. 1968 was much milder than April this year.

Indeed - it was in fact 1988 (which I experienced for-real) which appears to be similar to 1968 (which I did not). The 1988 sequence warm and sunny - snow - cool and sunny - warm and wet was also seen in 1968 in the same order, though the warm and sunny was in March rather than April.

[damianslaw]

On 18/10/2021 at 10:41, Summer8906 said:

It's interesting how few really wet spells I remember in this group of winters in particular. Mid-December 1989, mid January to mid February 1990 (the Burns Storm period), and that was more or less it.  With three good summers on the trot, too, this was a notably benign spell and one when I thought that the southern English climate in particular was changing to something more closely resembling central western France.

Though here neither May nor August 1997 were notably wet - May 1997 was fairly sunny with a wettish spell mid-month. August 1997 had a short warm, humid wet spell just before the notable heat and an autumnal few days at the end, but again wasn't notably wet; November 1997 was when I really noticed it.

Remember Nov 97 being very dull mild and wet setting the theme for the winter as a whole, caused by a super El Nino.. marking the start of a very wet period indeed in the main culminating in the exceptionally wet Autumn and December of 2000. The change came on Christmas Day when arctic airstream moved in.. 2001 was a much drier year.. interestingly something similar happened in Dec 2015, early 2016 brought a change to much drier after exceptional rainfall.. 2014 and 2015 were wet year.

 

I've noted before how very wet periods have suddenly switched to very dry and vice versa.. Summer 76 to Autumn 76 a good case.. more recently Winter 94-95 to spring 95,  Dec 00 to Jan 01, Jan 05 to Feb 05, Nov 09 to Dec 09, Dec 15 to Jan 16..

Edited October 19, 2021 by damianslaw

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Remember Nov 97 being very dull mild and wet setting the theme for the winter as a whole, caused by a super El Nino.. marking the start of a very wet period indeed in the main culminating in the exceptionally wet Autumn and December of 2000. The change came on Christmas Day when arctic airstream moved in.. 2001 was a much drier year.. interestingly something similar happened in Dec 2015, early 2016 brought a change to much drier after exceptional rainfall.. 2014 and 2015 were wet year.

 

I've noted before how very wet periods have suddenly switched to very dry and vice versa.. Summer 76 to Autumn 76 a good case.. more recently Winter 94-95 to spring 95,  Dec 00 to Jan 01, Jan 05 to Feb 05, Nov 09 to Dec 09, Dec 15 to Jan 16..

Mind you I rememeber Jan and Feb 2016 as being wet, particularly Jan, down here. In fact here Jan 16 was wetter than Dec 15 I think, as the jetstream moved south.

The trend here was from extremely mild and rather wet, to merely mild and more definitively wet.

Also down here 2015 seemed to be relatively dry, apart from late July/August. There seemed to be a near-constant WNW wind that year, which is generally a relatively dry direction here, much more so than in the north.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I always remembered October 1997 as a very interesting and "episodic" month - warm anticyclonic/westerly start, then a cyclonic/westerly spell followed by northerlies in the second week, then very warm southerlies, then a brief easterly incursion, then a spell of anticyclonic/northerly weather which resulted in the sharp frosts near the end of the month.   I remember that the southerly around the 18th started off warm and muggy but then produced two summer-like days of sunshine and temperatures around 20-21C.  In that spell near the end, even though I was just a couple of miles inland, I recorded a minimum of -3C.

In Tyneside it wasn't quite as sunny overall as in some other parts of the country - I remember that there was some cloudier weather on the eastern flank of the high during the last third of the month - but it was still a sunnier than average month.  In the 1990s only October 1995 came out significantly sunnier in that area of the country, when north-east England was sheltered from the prevailing south to south-west winds.

I remember that, with that October following a dry sunny September with warm days and cool nights, Autumn 1997 was shaping up to be one of my favourite autumns, but November 1997 shattered that in a big way, with just over half the normal amount of sunshine.  I remember that, apart from a one-off sunny day on the 21st, there was almost no sun at all from around midmonth to the 29th inclusive.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer8906]

On 20/10/2021 at 18:44, Thundery wintry showers said:

I remember that, with that October following a dry sunny September with warm days and cool nights, Autumn 1997 was shaping up to be one of my favourite autumns, but November 1997 shattered that in a big way, with just over half the normal amount of sunshine.  I remember that, apart from a one-off sunny day on the 21st, there was almost no sun at all from around midmonth to the 29th inclusive.

Much the same down here in the south if I remember right. Aside from the first three days which were sunny, there was little sun at all. Aside from that the most interesting thing was about three days of slow-moving and unusually thundery showers, on, I think, Sat 8th, Sun 9th and Sat 22nd. Aside from that it was just very mild, dull and wet with a lot of frontal rain. A cyclonic SSW-ly setup which stopped any form of Pm air making much inroads, aside from the three days mentioned above; it seemed to be a sequence of Atlantic fronts which ground to a halt over the UK, dumping large quantities of rain, and prevented from progressing eastwards by a high over eastern Europe. It turned drier and colder literally on the last day, if I remember right.

The constant dampness also played havoc with the trains, with the combination of falling leaves and damp rails causing the electric trains to heavily 'slip' on the Waterloo main line. I do seem to recall several weeks of frequent delays as a result.

I would hazard a guess that Germany and Poland had an unusually good November in this setup - would guess unusually warm for the season but also very sunny.

At least the worst of winter 1997/98 was over by around January 19th - from that date on it was extremely dry and frequently sunny, a sharp contrast to the previous two and a half months!

Edited October 22, 2021 by Summer8906

[LetItSnow!]

11 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

 

I would hazard a guess that Germany and Poland had an unusually good November in this setup - would guess unusually warm for the season but also very sunny.

 

[Summer8906]

On 22/10/2021 at 22:14, LetItSnow! said:

 

 

So it appears not - looks like there was some warmth but further east.

So more a battleground between Atlantic and North Russian/Scandinavian air than what I imagined, a battleground between Atlantic and tropical continental air.

[damianslaw]

Remember November 97 being exceptionally dull, especially second half.. perpetual low cloud and light rain - I was in Newcastle at the time. December 97 was very wet and again very dull, though a colder interlude mid month occured with an easterly that gave light sleety snow on one day but never stuck. The latter part of the month was very stormy - especially back home in Windermere. 

[Sun Chaser]

On 19/10/2021 at 23:51, damianslaw said:

I've noted before how very wet periods have suddenly switched to very dry and vice versa.. Summer 76 to Autumn 76 a good case.. more recently Winter 94-95 to spring 95,  Dec 00 to Jan 01, Jan 05 to Feb 05, Nov 09 to Dec 09, Dec 15 to Jan 16..

Some real good examples since this comment too! Oct 21 to Nov 21 heralding a drier period and then Feb 23 to Mar 23 which has since left us in the very wet regime we've been in since. Hopefully we get a switcharound soon.