Andrew Masterman - Winter Forecast

[Shunter]

Not sure if this link from Andrew Masterman has been posted already but I found it a good read. Their 2005/6 Winter forecast was equal to if not more accurate than the METO equivalent last year IMO.

http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/globalclimate/...7_in_europe.php

Sorry...posted last years link by mistake ( now corrected ) :lol:

Edited November 13, 2006 by Shunter

[shuggee]

Just to stimulate a bit of comment:

SNOWFALL: northerly spells likely to give some heavy falls to northern Scotland and all eastern & western UK coasts exposed to the north and any easterly spells are likely to bring heavy snowfalls to central & eastern regions.

average snowfall generally but perhaps above average in northern & eastern Scotland and eastern England (Moderate Confidence)

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Although i've only looked at it breifly (A bit of a picture read to be honest), interesting that a below average March is shown (I think I read that correctly).

So perhaps an indication of winter kicking in the later months this 06/07 season, and perhaps, and extension of the cold into March?

[John Cox]

Quote:

"Table 3 suggests conditions are ripe for a period of strongly negative NAO with a weak El Nino and low sunpsots in particular, so there is a significant risk that the timing of the NAO spells may be earlier than in recent winters meaning some really cold airmasses get into the UK and western Europe too this winter. Both Figure 1 & 2 show that previous periods of low westerlies in the 1960s and 1980s did have some winters in which the average NAO was more negative than recent ones and in these cases very cold air associated with strongly negative NAO spells occurred in the UK and western Europe. There is no reason to suspect that this current cycle of low westerlies won't have winters which are similar. The overall northern hemisphere pattern suggests that winter 2006/2007 could be such a winter.!"

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Quote:

"Table 3 suggests conditions are ripe for a period of strongly negative NAO with a weak El Nino and low sunpsots in particular, so there is a significant risk that the timing of the NAO spells may be earlier than in recent winters meaning some really cold airmasses get into the UK and western Europe too this winter. Both Figure 1 & 2 show that previous periods of low westerlies in the 1960s and 1980s did have some winters in which the average NAO was more negative than recent ones and in these cases very cold air associated with strongly negative NAO spells occurred in the UK and western Europe. There is no reason to suspect that this current cycle of low westerlies won't have winters which are similar. The overall northern hemisphere pattern suggests that winter 2006/2007 could be such a winter.!"

A very interesting forecast with lots of cross referencing and analysis. It supports my view especially the mention of a very negative spell maybe occurring earlier in the winter....also supports RJWs forecast.

Just reading Hart's Dec forecast for Europe...goes for cold plunging into eastern Europe with HP close to the UK. This was mentioned in the body of the forecast which if it happens is in line with their thinking

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Andrew certainly produces one of the most(if not the most) detailed, comprehensive free winter forecast for the UK.

Does anybody know if he's a member ?, if not I'll ask him to come over and discuss/ answer any questions etc....

[TheIceman]

A very interesting forecast with lots of cross referencing and analysis. It supports my view especially the mention of a very negative spell maybe occurring earlier in the winter....also supports RJWs forecast.

Just reading Hart's Dec forecast for Europe...goes for cold plunging into eastern Europe with HP close to the UK. This was mentioned in the body of the forecast which if it happens is in line with their thinking

BFTP

I have just registered so I can reply to some comments.

I am not specifically saying I can see evidence for NAO spells occurring earlier in the winter but that I can see no specific reason why not. I think in the last two winters, the overall pattern was favourable for negative NAO but owing to conditions earlier in the winter being unfavourable, strongly negative NAO only kicked in at ~ 20 Feb. In 2004/2005, the problem was the very zonal pattern to the north of the UK in Dec & the first half of Jan which warmed up Russia big time (this was prob related to very warm SSTs in Greenland/Barents Seas) and last winter, the raging Pacific PJF meant that rising pressures in Greenland in January couldn't happen.

So provided some equally unfavourable conditions don't appear this winter, I can see no obstacle to strongly negative NAO spells occurring earlier this winter. And the negative NAo currently and in recent months speaks volumes about the overall pattern favouring negative NAO this winter. Sun spots are very low, and a weak to moderate El Nino also seems to favour negative NAO.

So lots of reasons to be optimistic about this winter IMO.

[John Cox]

Thanks The Iceman

Your LRW for Europe and the UK was one of thew most detailed and interesting reads that I have had in a long time. Like Steve Murray, GP and others you back your reasoning with facts.

I would love for you to post again. nw could certainly do with people like you with such knowledge and reasoned views.

Well done

[Iceberg]

You did make it then Andrew, :lol:

What are your thoughts re the now forecasted moderate El nino to develop from Christmas onwards. ?

Matt

[TheIceman]

Thanks John.

I feel obliged to add that I am not a meteorologist but a weather enthusiast. But I have tried to understand what governs winter weather in the UK and feel I have made some progress.

You did make it then Andrew, :lol:

What are your thoughts re the now forecasted moderate El nino to develop from Christmas onwards. ?

Matt

Hi Matt,

None of these ENSO forecasts are saying it is going to be a "strong" El Nino, just that it will strengthen so this isn't a guarantee of mild weather as the PJF normally buckles in eastern North America in a weak to mod El Nino often giving eastern US a cold winter. However, if you get a strong westerly flow across the whole North America in a strong El Nino, I don't see how prolonged cold can develop in Europe as Atlantic warmth will be shunted downstream.

And El Nino & negative NAO go together as low heights in the Carribean & further east in the sub-trop Atlantic owing to the strong sub-tropical jet mean higher heights further north in Canada & Greenland.

I think all the model-based forecasts may over-react to the strengthening El Nino and this is why they forecast mild winter across Europe.

Edited November 13, 2006 by TheIceman

[John Cox]

Hi The Iceman,

You are in good company (Not me, I mean, I love to learn and just love to hear the views of more intelligent people in weather terms than I. I do however have my own weather station which I love). Many of the best foreasters here are not meteorologists (please excuse me John Holmes, Carinthian and others, you guys are tops).

A lot of enthusiasts here are not meteorologists but add a dimension that perhaps allows them more latitude in that they dont have to put their meteorological necks on the line.

So do stay and help us keen amatuers with your thoughts. :lol:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I have just registered so I can reply to some comments.

I am not specifically saying I can see evidence for NAO spells occurring earlier in the winter but that I can see no specific reason why not. I think in the last two winters, the overall pattern was favourable for negative NAO but owing to conditions earlier in the winter being unfavourable, strongly negative NAO only kicked in at ~ 20 Feb. In 2004/2005, the problem was the very zonal pattern to the north of the UK in Dec & the first half of Jan which warmed up Russia big time (this was prob related to very warm SSTs in Greenland/Barents Seas) and last winter, the raging Pacific PJF meant that rising pressures in Greenland in January couldn't happen.

So provided some equally unfavourable conditions don't appear this winter, I can see no obstacle to strongly negative NAO spells occurring earlier this winter. And the negative NAo currently and in recent months speaks volumes about the overall pattern favouring negative NAO this winter. Sun spots are very low, and a weak to moderate El Nino also seems to favour negative NAO.

So lots of reasons to be optimistic about this winter IMO.

Iceman

Welcome and glad to have you on board. I think the weak [ish] El nino will help modify greatly the unfavourable conditions but we will have to wait until the second 3rd of winter before the -ve NAO really kicks in. Nov is indeed bearing out as mild as expected and don't see Dec really changing either.

I think the sunspot factor will be of high importance too and a shot at the negative state may come about 1 month earlier than last year....4th Jan being the catalyst date wise NM/FM combination.

My winter LRF...I will do one but no real point as I concur with Roger J SMITH and yourself

BFTP

[TEITS]

Thanks The Iceman

Your LRW for Europe and the UK was one of thew most detailed and interesting reads that I have had in a long time. Like Steve Murray, GP and others you back your reasoning with facts.

I would love for you to post again. nw could certainly do with people like you with such knowledge and reasoned views.

Well done

I agree John and this is what I love about these types of forecast's that the likes of GP,SM, Iceman do. Many of us not only want to discuss the weather but want to learn abit more and these forecasts really help us do that.

The type of forecasts I now hate are those that say "wait until Jan" which is usually followed by a wink and no explaination as to why they are predicting this. What I find ironic is I used to make such forecasts :lol: .

Nowadays I prefer to use my internet time on reading and understanding meteorology rather than posting forecasts!