Invest 96E

[Paranoid]

Invest 96E has formed in the East Pacific. Not much of a strange occurance, but the GFDL model brings this up to a strong category 3 with 107kt winds and a pressure of 957mbar. Would it be possible to have a system this strong in the middle of november? It is further south than most of the systems this year.

[Paranoid]

Correction, the model now predicts 114 kt winds and a pressure of 950mbar.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm made to wonder how much influence the current ENSO event has on the storm. Cheers for the heads up by the way!

[Somerset Squall]

Now Tropical Storm Sergio, soon to become a hurricane. The east pacific has certainly been very active this year, and this storm could be quite potent! Here is the lastest advisory:

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006

700 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2006

CORRECTED TO CHANGE PRODUCT TIME FROM DAYLIGHT TO STANDARD TIME.

AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 09Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CORE BAND.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA ...AND 35

KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THE STRONG MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ESTIMATE...AND THE

DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME

SINCE 1961 THAT TWO TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN

PACIFIC BASIN IN NOVEMBER...AND ONLY FIVE STORMS HAVE FORMED LATER

IN THE SEASON THAN SERGIO.

A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION MIGHT BE 315/3...SLOWER THAN BEFORE.

GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ALREADY WEAK RIDGING TO THE

NORTH OF SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN...AND ALL OF THE

PRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A LOOP OR A STALL OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST

TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE WEST OF THE

CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO

RESUME. WITHIN THIS BASIC SCENARIO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL

SPREAD...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK VERY

CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT WELL

OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE

RIGHT LATER ON TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS.

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SEEM TO CONFIRM THE GOOD CORE BANDING

STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...AND SERGIO IS

UNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LIGHT SHEAR. WATER

TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 29C...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST. I DON'T

SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE

SHORT RUN...AND PERHAPS QUITE RAPIDLY. THE SHIPS R-I INDEX

CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF RAPID

INTENSIFICATION...AS DOES THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS

AND GFDL GUIDANCE. WHILE THERE IS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE NORTH

OF THE CYCLONE...THE CURRENT FORECAST PRESUMES THAT SERGIO WILL

REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.2N 104.5W 35 KT

12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.4N 104.7W 45 KT

24HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 105.0W 55 KT

36HR VT 16/0000Z 13.5N 105.0W 65 KT

48HR VT 16/1200Z 14.0N 105.0W 70 KT

72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W 70 KT

96HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 70 KT

120HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W 65 KT

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Also very interesting to note the section I have highlighted, amazing!

[Paranoid]

Quoting GFDL figures again. The strength has yet again been revised upwards to 135kts and a pressure of 944mbar. 135kts is just into Category 5, though somehow i don't think we'll see another Cat 5 this year as it's not a major El Nino event like 82-83, 97-98 and 01-02.

[Somerset Squall]

Quoting GFDL figures again. The strength has yet again been revised upwards to 135kts and a pressure of 944mbar. 135kts is just into Category 5, though somehow i don't think we'll see another Cat 5 this year as it's not a major El Nino event like 82-83, 97-98 and 01-02.

On observation, the GDFL always seems to overestimate the intensity and the NHC rarely go with the GFDL on it's own. It is now a 50 kt tropical storm and the latest advisory says that an eye is trying to form!

[Paranoid]

Now Hurricane Sergio, name change mods?

HURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006

1700 UTC WED NOV 15 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.7W AT 15/1700Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.

50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 103.7W AT 15/1700Z

AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.7W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W

MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

The NHC are now backing it to become a major hurricane.

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006

100 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006

SERGIO HAS DEVELOPED A TYPICAL HURRICANE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A

DISTINCT BUT SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE

OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO

INCREASE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY

OF AT LEAST 95 KNOTS. THERE IS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...BUT A GRADUAL

WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS SERGIO ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 3

DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS

BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TAKING A MORE EASTWARD

TRACK. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN FORCING THE HURRICANE

SOUTHEASTWARD IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS

TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN

SHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A VERY SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS

EASTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT

BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA AND CABO CORRIENTES ON MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 4 TO 5

DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 12.0N 103.6W 95 KT

12HR VT 16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W 100 KT

24HR VT 16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W 105 KT

36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W 100 KT

48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W 90 KT

72HR VT 18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W 80 KT

96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT

120HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W 60 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Potent storm for the time of year! Can somebody also change the title of the thread please?

[Somerset Squall]

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006

700 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006

AFTER LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO'S SATELLITE

PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE EYE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS

BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT IS

DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION OR THE

BEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 90 KT IN LINE WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE

AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND

UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE

PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN BY THE

GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE

BAJA PENINSULA HAS NOT CLOSED OFF AND THE WEAK RIDGE HAS NOT YET

FORMED OVER MEXICO. INSTEAD...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL

UNITED STATES EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS A

RESULT...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS NOW BEARING DOWN ON THE

CYCLONE...AND MAY ALREADY BE AFFECTING IT. NONETHELESS...THE GFDL

MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SERGIO STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD

INTO THIS INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SINCE ANY APPRECIABLE

NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO A SEEMINGLY HOSTILE

ENVIRONMENT...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY

SCENARIO. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FSU

SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL AND CALLS FOR NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE

BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND A DRY/STABLE AIR

AIRMASS.

SERGIO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST

COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/4. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE

LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN IS COMPLEX...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT

OF SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE

IS FLANKED ON THE EAST SIDE BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH

SHOW SERGIO CLIPPING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

CONVERSELY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND NOW THE ECMWF MODEL

SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT

SERGIO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THUS TURN NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH

THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MEDIUM BAM MODEL. WHILE IT IS MUCH TOO

SOON TO SAY WHETHER SERGIO WILL OR WILL NOT AFFECT MEXICO...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR THE HISTORICALLY CURIOUS...SERGIO IS THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH

PACIFIC BASIN HURRICANE ON RECORD FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.3N 103.2W 90 KT

12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 90 KT

24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.3W 90 KT

36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 103.8W 85 KT

48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 104.9W 75 KT

72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT

120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W 45 KT

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems like it was the pacific this year that has had a 'storm fest' I suppose the formation of the El-Nino has had some influence on this.

Whenever a 'strongest ever,hottest ever,wettest ever' is broken you have to wonder about GW and it's impacts.

[Somerset Squall]

Seems like it was the pacific this year that has had a 'storm fest' I suppose the formation of the El-Nino has had some influence on this.

Whenever a 'strongest ever,hottest ever,wettest ever' is broken you have to wonder about GW and it's impacts.

Indeed, records are being broken every year, it is quite concerning. It certainly has been a storm fest in The east Pacific, makes up for the dull Atlantic season.

Sergio has weakened to a tropical storm, as it is battling reletively strong shear. The shear is expected to decrease in the short term halting the weakening trend but after 48hrs very strong shear is expected which should kill Sergio off, along with the fact it will be entering much more stable air. One thing to note is that it is certainly affecting a large area, it's outer bands are affecting portions of the coast of west mexico despite it being a fair way out to sea. The certainly has been an interesting little storm that has broken a record, it's the strongest November storm in the North Pacific. Food for thought.