Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[carinthian]

Morning Viking,

The strong windfield to our east with a southerly component has pushed well into the Arctic Barent sea sector and is presently holding back ice formation in that area you have mentioned. The warmer air and strong winds are having the effect of breaking up new ice and even pushing back the main polar ice edge from Svalbard. On the otherhand good news in the Greenland Sea with very cold airmass maintaining the ice drift into the Denmark Strait and reports of some good concentration of young and first year i fast ice further north. Considerable frost expected in Iceland today .! Hope it gets to you sometime .

C

The warmer temperatures moving into the North Barent is on course to relieve the severe cold that has been a feature so far this month in Northern Greenland. Forecast models very rarely predict the correct height rise over the Greenland interior and again the intense cold over the main icecap and presently affecting the Southeast is likely to maintain a strong pressure gradient in the Greenland Sea. It also looks like the AO is to move into minus phase with a possible early link to the Siberian High. This possible development may be the first salvo of real cold to push our way by the end of November .

C

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth

Yes - GP mentioned today about the AO possibly reverting to negative and it will be interesting to see how this is modelled should this happen as seems likely. I think that the movements of the Siberian High will characteristically be slow to be picked up on by the models. So, come a couple more weeks or so it could just be that the number register at the bottom of the page will be ratcheting upwards as developments come on board and we see more and more blue in the top right of our screens.

There, a mini-ramp from me!

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

I will be greedy and go for deep purple. That will send the shivers out ..!

C

Good to see this subject back on track. Just to add my belated "welcome back" Carinthian.

hELLO mR Sleet,

Just seen your message. Thanks

C

[carinthian]

The warmer temperatures moving into the North Barent is on course to relieve the severe cold that has been a feature so far this month in Northern Greenland. Forecast models very rarely predict the correct height rise over the Greenland interior and again the intense cold over the main icecap and presently affecting the Southeast is likely to maintain a strong pressure gradient in the Greenland Sea. It also looks like the AO is to move into minus phase with a possible early link to the Siberian High. This possible development may be the first salvo of real cold to push our way by the end of November .

C

Quite a switch round up in the North Barent Sea. The wind field has brought a warm air mass out of Central Europe into this part of the Arctic. Temperatures +10c above normal in Svalbard and up +15C above average in Franz JosefLand . No ice formation here at the moment.

C

[carinthian]

The warmer temperatures moving into the North Barent is on course to relieve the severe cold that has been a feature so far this month in Northern Greenland. Forecast models very rarely predict the correct height rise over the Greenland interior and again the intense cold over the main icecap and presently affecting the Southeast is likely to maintain a strong pressure gradient in the Greenland Sea. It also looks like the AO is to move into minus phase with a possible early link to the Siberian High. This possible development may be the first salvo of real cold to push our way by the end of November .

C

Morning further to the above report.

The continued push of the southerly jet windfield into the Mid- Arctic has brought some very arm air into Svalbard. Currently, a big thaw going on now with postive temperatures and snow melt at lower elevations. Milder conditions are also affecting much of Scandinavia with snow retention mostly restricted to the highlands. Postive temps as far north as Lapland.

This flow may may get squeezed out as the Siberian High continues to spread slowly westwards and make a link to the Arctic high. Watch the AO move gradually into negative phase over the coming days.

C

[parmenides3]

A quick look at the North American side shows just how variable conditions can be in the Arctic Circle. This is the report on Hudson Bay from the Canadian Ice Service:

FECN05 CWIS 021800

THIRTY DAY FORECAST FOR HUDSON BAY AND APPROACHES FOR NOVEMBER ISSUED BY

ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 02 NOVEMBER 2006.

Mean air temperatures were above normal over all locations during

the second half of October. Freeze-up will be slightly later than normal

over all locations.

Forecast ice conditions for November 03 to November 30th.

New ice will form in shallow bays and inlets along Southampton Island,

the northwestern shore of Hudson Bay and the northwestern shore of Hudson

Strait during the first week in November. Patchy new ice will develop in

Cumberland Sound, Frobisher Bay and will continue to slowly form farther

south along the western shore of Hudson Bay as far south as Churchill and

in shallow bays and inlets along the northwestern shore of Hudson Strait

during the later part of the second week of November. The ice will

continue its southward progression to cover the extreme northern and

western portions of Hudson Bay and the extreme northwestern portion of

Hudson Strait just after mid month. By that time the ice will have

thickened to the grey ice stage. In addition, an area of new and grey ice

will prevail along the shore of Baffin Island south of Cape Dyer.

THIS IS THE LAST 30 DAY FORECAST OF THE SEASON.

END

Anchorage is forecasting a HP stalling over North Alaska, leading to rapid ice development along the coast, in the Chuchki Sea and up to the Bering Strait. The report can be found here: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php?fcst=FZAK80PAFC

So, a switch of cold from one side to the other, as reflected in the CT graphs recently. Nothing especially unusual in this, just par for the course, but it does look like this Year's Winter maximum will be closer to 'normal' values than recent years. A lot will depend on how much ice develops in the 'outer reaches' of the measured areas, especially St Lawrence, Labrador anf the Sea of Okhotsk.

As a small side-note, There are reports of icebergs being seen from the New Zealand coast in the last couple of days. This hasn't happened since 1931. It has no bearing on our weather, but I thought some of you might find it interesting.

:)P

[The Eagle]

Morning further to the above report.

The continued push of the southerly jet windfield into the Mid- Arctic has brought some very arm air into Svalbard. Currently, a big thaw going on now with postive temperatures and snow melt at lower elevations. Milder conditions are also affecting much of Scandinavia with snow retention mostly restricted to the highlands. Postive temps as far north as Lapland.

This flow may may get squeezed out as the Siberian High continues to spread slowly westwards and make a link to the Arctic high. Watch the AO move gradually into negative phase over the coming days.

C

Hi C, yes was considering the Mild air pushing North to the East for a while now and it has been quite a push. So were finally seeing the conseqences...hope to see some positive influences regarding us as a result showing on the models in the coming days

[carinthian]

Morning further to the above report.

The continued push of the southerly jet windfield into the Mid- Arctic has brought some very arm air into Svalbard. Currently, a big thaw going on now with postive temperatures and snow melt at lower elevations. Milder conditions are also affecting much of Scandinavia with snow retention mostly restricted to the highlands. Postive temps as far north as Lapland.

This flow may may get squeezed out as the Siberian High continues to spread slowly westwards and make a link to the Arctic high. Watch the AO move gradually into negative phase over the coming days.

C

Evening,

15C above the Mid November middle temp in Svalbard and Northern Greenland. Quite a turn round in 7 days.

I do like the shape of the Siberian High (elongated pool of cold air stretching for thousands of miles ) this is becoming a notiable feature. One to watch in the outlook.

C

[D KARLSON]

Evening,

15C above the Mid November middle temp in Svalbard and Northern Greenland. Quite a turn round in 7 days.

I do like the shape of the Siberian High (elongated pool of cold air stretching for thousands of miles ) this is becoming a notiable feature. One to watch in the outlook.

C

Good point carinthian this feature now seems to be established and ive noticed in previous winters that these featureas become players in our weather later on in the winter.

Certainly a good sign for the coming winter and something that must be kept a close eye on !!!!!!!

[ScandiHigh]

History repeating itself? After a promising October, it seems like Svalbard is back to the "normal" of the last couple of years (which is certainly not normal):

http://met.no/observasjoner/svalbard/Svalb...havn/index.html

This is not good news for ice formation in the Barent Sea.

[noggin]

All goes to show that we cannot "second guess" the weather, I suppose. :lol:

[carinthian]

Morning further to the above report.

The continued push of the southerly jet windfield into the Mid- Arctic has brought some very arm air into Svalbard. Currently, a big thaw going on now with postive temperatures and snow melt at lower elevations. Milder conditions are also affecting much of Scandinavia with snow retention mostly restricted to the highlands. Postive temps as far north as Lapland.

This flow may may get squeezed out as the Siberian High continues to spread slowly westwards and make a link to the Arctic high. Watch the AO move gradually into negative phase over the coming days.

C

After a promising start to the season, young ice formation that formed in the Svalbard and Franz Josef Land archipelago has almost now gone. The rate of disappearance is alarming. One Polar met station in the far north of the Barent Sea is recording temperaures of +20C above the Late November norm . Warm temperatures and the present run of southerly component winds are keeping the main polar ice edge at bay.

C

[January Snowstorm]

After a promising start to the season, young ice formation that formed in the Svalbard and Franz Josef Land archipelago has almost now gone. The rate of disappearance is alarming. One Polar met station in the far north of the Barent Sea is recording temperaures of +20C above the Late November norm . Warm temperatures and the present run of southerly component winds are keeping the main polar ice edge at bay.

C

What's the story Carinth between Greenland and Iceland.

Surely this area is still below normal is it?? and helping sea ice........

Appreciate your comments

[Wynn D Woo]

As a small side-note, There are reports of icebergs being seen from the New Zealand coast in the last couple of days. This hasn't happened since 1931. It has no bearing on our weather, but I thought some of you might find it interesting.

:)P

Interesting indeed now i bet the bbc dont mention it they seem to have an aversion to reporting the cold side of weather events :lol: . Still things would be more interesting if we had bergs off the uk coast :lol:

[frozen_north]

Well I think the that the main reason that Svalbard has heated up is because the cold air has moved into Canada round about Hudson Bay.

If you look at the time when Svalbard was way below average Hudson Bay was way above average.

[carinthian]

What's the story Carinth between Greenland and Iceland.

Surely this area is still below normal is it?? and helping sea ice........

Appreciate your comments

hI JS,

The same airmass out of the North Barent has brought higher temperatures to much of Greenland with stations in the far north and down the Greenland Sea recording above average temperatures, about 10C warmer than this time last week, however there is evidence of re-newed cold pool development soon to take place in the Iceland Basin. The sea ice formation remains on a parr with last year, perhaps with some further growth in the Greenland Sea later this month.

C

Hi Carinth

Yes this is disappointing and frustrating after a good start - in that respect the sooner the current western trough eastern ridge stalemate disappears the better. As I have just said on the model thread.

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Agree with you there. Very disappointing. Long wave troughs out west are no good to us. But, we still have 10 days to go before the winter season starts and things can turn around very quickly, not only here but with sea ice formation.

C

[parmenides3]

For those of you interested in the longer-term Arctic climate, NOAA have just published their 'State of the Arctic' report: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/rich2952/rich2952.pdf

It's quite a large document, but important reading.

:)P

[carinthian]

After a promising start to the season, young ice formation that formed in the Svalbard and Franz Josef Land archipelago has almost now gone. The rate of disappearance is alarming. One Polar met station in the far north of the Barent Sea is recording temperaures of +20C above the Late November norm . Warm temperatures and the present run of southerly component winds are keeping the main polar ice edge at bay.

C

lATEST REPORT

Negative temperatures have returned to the North Barent with widespread snowfall, however temperatures are still way above the late November norm. Sea ice levels have even fallen in the N. Barent and even in the Kara Sea(see the above post) Overall the Northern Hemisphere ice levels are on a parr to last year. Cold air advection this week should soon kick start the Hudson Bay ice formation with Foxe Basin first and then into Hudson Strait, however most of the Bay below 60N should remain ice free for a few more weeks.

C

[Optimus Prime]

Still looking very poor Carinthian?

Judging by past cold winters and ice cover we can almost certainly write off a winter with notable cold snaps unless there's a dramatic explosion in ice .

[carinthian]

Still looking very poor Carinthian?

Judging by past cold winters and ice cover we can almost certainly write off a winter with notable cold snaps unless there's a dramatic explosion in ice .

Hi OP,

Historically, I would say so. However, the winter season has yet to start. Things always seem to have a way to making a correction.

C

[summer blizzard]

Once Hudsons Bay freezes, i would think that we will go above average for a while in terms of ice area.

[carinthian]

Well time for a bit of cheer for cold lovers.

The three main "cold poles " that was the phrased used at college in my training days are now recording temperatures of -40C or less.

The Yukon,Greenland Summit and potentially the coldest one , Verkhoyansk which lies in the valley bottom of the River Yana, currently -42C. This well known "frost hollow " can go as low as -70C in Mid-Winter making it about the coldest location in the Northern Hemisphere. Now we have to sit patiently and watch how these" cold poles "evolve over the coming weeks.

Better news on the ice front later to cheer you up more !

C

[drgl]

good-because walking around in a T shirt as we approach December isn't fun!

[Guest Viking141]

Well time for a bit of cheer for cold lovers.

The three main "cold poles " that was the phrased used at college in my training days are now recording temperatures of -40C or less.

The Yukon,Greenland Summit and potentially the coldest one , Verkhoyansk which lies in the valley bottom of the River Yana, currently -42C. This well known "frost hollow " can go as low as -70C in Mid-Winter making it about the coldest location in the Northern Hemisphere. Now we have to sit patiently and watch how these" cold poles "evolve over the coming weeks.

Better news on the ice front later to cheer you up more !

C

Good news Carinth! Keep it coming!

:unsure:

[carinthian]

Two interesting Arctic features taking place now.

The Greenland Summit has today broken the all time November low (-60C thats an amazing-77f ) So cold pool is building again up there.

The frightful purga of NE Siberia has raised its head. The purga of the tundras, that brings danger to man and beast.These storms bring blinding heavy snowfall, zero visiblity and deep drifts. Though temperatures are not specially low the cold is keenly felt. People have known to disappear in these conditions. These moist laden winds bring hours on end of descending snow and further into the interior storms can develop into blizzards of some violence.

C

[carinthian]

OSW, perhaps there is a little too much of it now, and a separate thread on the subject might be a good idea. But if you read carefully back through the thread (the departure started with discussions of ex-Arctic icebergs in British waters) you will see that Carinthian himself has seemed happy to discuss the subject, and expressed appreciation of some of the posts (including, flatteringly, mine). My feeling is that as long as news from the Northern Front is a little less than exciting, a gentle (and probably temporary) drift into UK sea ice is not so terrible - as long as it continues to be conducted with the present faultless good manners and friendliness...though perhaps pics of frozen waterfalls, etc, are a little naughty!

Hi osmposm,

I like the pictures. I have no problem with showing ice in abundance, where every it is from. ! Certainly everyone is performing sterling work, not only on this thread but throughout the forum. It is buzzing with a good section of readers contributing in a enthusiastic and friendly manner..

C

the whole point is before it was argued that this thread in particular should be kept to discussion purely on Artic conditions. I in particular dont want to go through replies about books etc..i want to get the meaty parts about the latest artic conditions and im sure lots of others do as well.. I dont want to be picky but you cant have one rule for one and one for another.. lets keep to the arctic topic on here with maybe the odd.. oo look its coming this way post!

Carinth, it would be interesting to see how deep the snow cover is before and after these storms...great news about the record low again.. what is the record for Dec? it looks like the 1st of Dec could see another record attempt...

EVENING OSW,

The record low on the summit for December is -63C. At sea level -49C was recorded in North Greenland in 1990.

C