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December CET


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

Im going for a December which is colder than 95 although not quiet as cold as 81 so 2.0C for me.

This month shall be dominated be outbreaks of Artic N,lys & Continental E,lys although the very first few days of Dec may start mild before the N,lys arrive.

You didn't really expect me to say anything else did you :(:(

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I just thought that i would say that the average December CET is 5.1C.

Interestingly (or not) December has the equal biggest difference from the 1971-2000 average to the 100 year rolling mean. The former is, as you rightly say, 5.1C. The 100 year mean is 4.7C. For information, the 1961-1990 is 4.6C a full half a degree below the figure a decade later. That either suggests to me that the Decembers of the 1960's were damned cold (well we know that's partly true!) or that the 1970's on have been very warm ... or both.

Alternatively, I've touched the Penfolds Bin 128 a little too early in the evening and am talking complete tosh. This is perfectly possible :(

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

I agree West. Decembers during the 60's were notrously cold. There were 6 below 4.0c and only 1 above 5.0c! (1966 at 5.5c)

The Decembers in the 70's were generally very mild, averaging out at 5.28c

They were also generally mild during the 80's averaging out at 5.2c

They were actually generally cold during the 90's averaging out at 4.6c

Coldest decade for Decembers being the 60's averaging out at just 3.5c!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Over the last decade, here are the percentages...

10% chance of a December CET between 3 and 3.9C.

20% chance of a December CET between 4 and 4.9C.

60% chance of a December CET between 5 and 5.9C.

10% chance of a December CET not between 3C and 5.9C.

Really, it just supports my primary and secondary anologues in favouring a December CET between 5C and 5.9C, slightly above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Just my opinion, but another above average month.

5.8c

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Just my opinion, but another above average month.

5.8c

A deep & crisp & even

4.5C

The first month in terms of the last 5 - 10 years pressure anomalies that stands a good chance of Normal or below....

Taken from the Winter forecast-

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
A deep & crisp & even

4.5C

S

Reassuring that your going for a below average month Steve.

By the way I know this may sound cheeky but when can we expect your winter forecast as im sure many including myself are anxious to read it.

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
My own seasonal LRF had a December CET of 5.9c.....but......now I'm not so sure. I think we will see a pattern change to colder conditions around the end of the first week and that may persist.

As a result, my punt for December is......

4.4c 3.8c 5.1c 10.1c :)

Oh I don't know at the moment!! I'll have decided in a few days :) !!

After much deliberation I'm sticking with my original long range punt of 5.9c :) .

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Very intresting punts ere, I think much will depend on whether we can ghet any decent sustained cold spell because the first 3-5 days will probably end up above average, though by how much depends on how much of a SW/SSW componant we get at the start of the month and whether we can get a SSe flow which will would be drier and less cloud means lower mins.

Nice punt Steve, just 0.1C above mine which gives me a little more confidence in my own punt.

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Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet

Ok, i think below average, 4.0c :unsure:

Edited by Paul Carfoot
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Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

In conjunction with my December Forecast i suspect

Week 1 Average wet at times

Week 2 Cool dry

Week 3 Snowy V.Cold

Week 4 Milder and Wet

So all in all a pretty cold month. My guestimate at this point is for 4.5 to be reached but it all depends. I will reupdate onSunday when my December Forecast is out which may allow me to get a better understanding of what we can expect in December

SM06

:unsure:

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Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
Are the Daily Mail going to serialise it ?

They should offer it as a DVD on Saturday with Steve reading it from a Log Cabin in Lapland.

He could have reindeer peering through the window and Francis Wilson miming the weather as he reads.

Then Play.Com can sell the double disc with extras - forecasters commentary, interactive synoptic charts. The outtakes - Steve forecasts a Bartlett, Francis Wilson falls over.

Hell, I can see a range of Steve Murr merchandise coming out of this, its genius!

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

I might aswell put in my thoughts, i'll go for 3.4C

1st Week - Mild, wet (similar conditions to what were having now)

2nd Week - Below average temps mainly dry

3rd Week - Cold, frosty and dry

4th Week - Cold and snowy. Snow being mainly the the North and West.

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmparc, South Wales.
  • Location: Cwmparc, South Wales.
They should offer it as a DVD on Saturday with Steve reading it from a Log Cabin in Lapland.

He could have reindeer peering through the window and Francis Wilson miming the weather as he reads.

Then Play.Com can sell the double disc with extras - forecasters commentary, interactive synoptic charts. The outtakes - Steve forecasts a Bartlett, Francis Wilson falls over.

Hell, I can see a range of Steve Murr merchandise coming out of this, its genius!

Only one problem there. Many parts of Lapland are having record warm temps. In fact snow is melting fast and in some parts all but gone. Never mind the igloo or ice palace it will be bbq's there...

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Just a reminder that this is proposed as round 1 of the CET Trophy.

Subject to general approval, I think we should endorse the 'operational' scoring system as devised by Stratos Ferric. The basic gist - get as close to the Hadley CET as often as you can.

Paul has generously agreed to supply the following prizes:

1 Winner receives Year's subsription to NetWeather Extra and champions' Crown.

3 Runners up each receive three monthly subscriptions.

Each seasonal winter (aka Winter King / Queen, Spring Supremo, Summer Star, Autumn Ace) will receive 1 month's free subscription.

Rules as advertised before. However please note, I think we agreed that the deadline for submission into this thread was 23.59 30th November 2006.

No late submissions accepted - deadline 23.59 GMT November 2006.

Because we are proposing to use a scoring system which in part rewards consistency, people may attempt to tatically abstain from tricky months which is not really in the spirit of the competition.

It is realised however that holidays etc. might interfere with some entries so you will be allowed 2 months non-entry throughout the year. Each non-entry will however result in a deduction of 10 points. More than 2 missed months over the year will result in disqualification so it's up to you to make sure you get your entries posted on time.

Good luck.

GP

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Posted
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border

I'm going for 5.5

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