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December CET


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Thanks for that Ian Brown, i have no boubt that that will be me, though in case it is not, could we come to an arangement between ourselves :lol: :lol: (rubs fingers together in a 'dosh' way) LOL

I am still very happy with my 5.6C prediction.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Thanks for that Ian Brown, i have no boubt that that will be me, though in case it is not, could we come to an arangement between ourselves :lol: :lol: (rubs fingers together in a 'dosh' way) LOL

I am still very happy with my 5.6C prediction.

6.3C for me with relative nonchalence ;)

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

im goin 4 a miserable and dull 6.2c....a foretaste of the rest of winter in my opinion!

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Oh i'm very uncertain about this December, I suspect we are going to be on the edge of both some decent cold and some very mild weather, with prehaps a bit of both in the month. I suspect we will find oursleves being ruled by one way or another by the jet stream for a good period of the month but exactly where all the other blocks fall into play will o my mind determine the exact CET for December and its something I've not made my mind up on yet.

My intial punt went for 4.4C but I think I'm going to adjust it upwards before I make my final punt as I suspect overall it'll be a touch milder then I first expected until we see a change to a colder pattern...though not cold straight away.

Don't you start fourcasting! it's bad enough trying to keep track of SB's multiple punts.

I just thought that i would say that the average December CET is 5.1C.

The warmest December CET is 8.1C set in 1934 and 1974.

The coldest December CET is -0.8C set in 1890.

Having done looked at the October data for ten teleconncetion patterns, the primary anologue is 2002, with the secondary anologues being 1982, 1980 and 1968.

Based on these anologues, i have increased confidence in my own prediction, because of the following probabilities based on thos anologues...

40% chance of a December CET between 5C and 5.9C.

20 % chance of a December CET between 4C and 4.9C.

20% chance of a December CET between 3C and 3.9C

20% chance of a December CET not between 3C and 5.9C.

B*gger me, a genuine fourcast, and I added the word shuggee's list before I'd seen this. I must be psychic!

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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

Going for, in the same fashion as always, what the 30yr/60yr moving average analysis tells me which in this case is 4.8C possibly 4.7C. I'm not particularly enthralled by the signs of early December :) though so I'm banking on a particularly cold last week or two to pull this one off. . . . and I know that that's a whopping -2.6C deviation from the Hadley 1971-2000 average :)

Also looking for a punt at a white christmas bet depending on ensembles around 10th Dec :)

post-5986-1164369549.png

* * * *

Just for fun, take a look at this:

post-5986-1164370213.png

Yellow=30yrMA

Black=60yrMA

Red=90yrMA

I've circled the points where the red, and black lines cross. This does tend to indicate a change in direction of the shorter term 30yr MA. In this case it can be (loosely) put in this order (on this chart) Down, Up, Down, Up,Down,Up which leaves us, rather simply, to choose a temperature down from the current 30yr MA.

(The more observant will note that there is another crossing just before the last one which would indicate an Up instead of a Down, but as it didn't signifcantly cross I didn't count it, and am treating it as misrepresentative)

(Just for fun, y'understand) :)

Edited by Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I'll go for 6C then.

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

mmm Ok I'll have a crack at this, I'll go for 5.1°C

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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

My guess is 4.4c (0.0c), a few brief cold spells but in general

continuing with the average or mild wet and windy weather then

a major cold spell will start around Christmas lasting to the end

of the month to bring major snow.

Edited by conor123
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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
a major cold spell will start at christmas day lasting to the end

of the month to bring major snow.

It's funny this is the third *serious* forecast to suggest heavy or something on the heavier side of heavy snow/a cold period at the end of the month/the New Year period. :D

Also, "Christmas" has a capital "C". :D

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
It's funny this is the third *serious* forecast to suggest heavy or something on the heavier side of heavy snow/a cold period at the end of the month/the New Year period. :D

Also, "Christmas" has a capital "C". :D

5.3

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

6.2 would be my guess for this December's CET. Generally a very mild month, but possibly with a fairly potent cold snap after the 15th and before Christmas. Christmas itself quite mild. Possibly colder again by New Years Eve.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants
Welcome to the forum Gavin B)

Hey thanks. :)

My old mate Steve Murr post's here and I've been browsing the forum for some days and it seems like a good place to hang out. B)

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Hey thanks. :)

My old mate Steve Murr post's here and I've been browsing the forum for some days and it seems like a good place to hang out. B)

Are you the same Gavin who posts on TWO. If so I wish to say I enjoy reading your posts and im glad you have decided to join this forum.

By the way my CET prediction of 2C is looking iffy B)

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Even with the prospects of a cold snap I still think it'll be mild. 6.2c for me please!

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

The last time December.

..had a CET >8

1974 8.1

..had a CET >7

1988 7.5

..had a CET >6

1994 6.4

..had a CET <5

2005 4.4

..had a CET <4

2001 3.6

..had a CET <3

1996 2.9

..had a CET <2

1981 0.3

..had a CET <0

1890 -0.8

..was the coldest month of the year

1995 2.3

..was warmer than November

1993 Nov 4.6 Dec 5.5

..was the coldest month of the winter

2003 Dec 4.8 2004 Jan 5.2 Feb 5.4

..was warmer than the following March

2000 Dec 5.8 Mar 5.2

..was warmer than the following April

1988 Dec 7.5 1989 Apr 6.6

..was warmer than the previous October

1974 Oct 7.8 Dec 8.1

There have been only 6 Decembers with a sub-zero CET

1676, 1788, 1796, 1874, 1878 and 1890

There has only one occasion when there were 2 consecutive Decembers with a CET of >7

1842 7.2, 1843 7.4

There were 2 occasions of 3 consecutive Decembers with a CET of >6

1685 6.5, 1686 6.0, 1687 6.0

1910 6.4, 1911 6.2 1912 6.7

The longest run of consecutive Decembers with a CET >5 is 6 from 1983 to 1988

The longest run of consecutive Decembers with a CET <3 is 5 from 1676 to 1680

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