December CET

[Mr Sleet]

4.9 C.

[osmposm]

......I'll upgrade my CET projection to 4.8 C

I'm glad I'm not the person trying to keep track of everybody's predictions if they keep changing !! Mind you, I was cowardly (or sensible) enough to wait until late last night before throwing my hat in the ring.

But I hereby promise that even if a huge surge of west-travelling Siberian air miraculously appears on the 18z the day after tomorrow, I shall stick to my 6.2.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm glad I'm not the person trying to keep track of everybody's predictions if they keep changing !! Mind you, I was cowardly (or sensible) enough to wait until late last night before throwing my hat in the ring.

But I hereby promise that even if a huge surge of west-travelling Siberian air miraculously appears on the 18z the day after tomorrow, I shall stick to my 6.2.

It's one of SB's fortés

[Somerset Squall]

6.1C

[Gavin P]

Earlier I was thinking rather mild, now I am thinking very mild. This seems to my rudimentary mind the perfect set-up for a record warm December. Very warm air is blasting in from the Atlantic day after day. New moon and southern max on the 20th, beyond the model and normal forecast horizon, usually produce very mild weather in a mild pattern, by forcing the flow just that little bit extra, like paying Wayne Rooney extra to play a little better.

As a result, 8.3 C for me. I'm expecting it to turn radically colder very soon after this all goes down, but it's a long way from Alaska to Sweden, which is about the only route that cold air can take to reach you now that Greenland is being overwhelmed by the returning mild easterly and eastern North America is saying "sorry, no service."

Hey Roger, very interesting prediction. Its a job to imagine it getting cold after such a horribly mild December as the one your predicting, but these days it seems anything is possible :blink:

Out of interest, have you issued a full winter forecast? (I'm new to this forum, BTW, so I'm not familier with your posts) :huh:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hey Roger, very interesting prediction. Its a job to imagine it getting cold after such a horribly mild December as the one your predicting, but these days it seems anything is possible :blink:

Out of interest, have you issued a full winter forecast? (I'm new to this forum, BTW, so I'm not familier with your posts) :huh:

See winter LRFs on the top section of the page

BFTP

[VillagePlank]

I think that Roger is quite correct apart from the timing of the colder spell which I reckon will come in before December's out - more later.

[Gavin P]

See winter LRFs on the top section of the page

BFTP

Cool. I'll check it out. Thanks. :blink:

[Scorcher]

The first few days do look mild, and although it's important not to be misled by the first few days, I think it could well be mild right to the middle of the month. I have a feeling by mid-month the CET could be running well above average. Therefore I'm going to go for 6.7C.

[Bottesford]

5.4c for me. A little above average due to the Atlantic dominating the first couple of weeks.

[Iceberg]

I think I'd like to up mine to 4.7, you're probably looking at an average of 7.5 or so for the first two weeks. So a sensible person would go for 5 or 6.

[Joneseye]

5.7C please Bob

[WindWatcher]

5.0C for me please.

[Norrance]

6.0 for me. No sign of any cold nights in the near future and any cold[er] interludes will be short lived. Any cold snap later in the Month [ i think] will have to much to make up to bring the CET down to average.

[senior ridge]

These continual South Westerly's have mucked up my Sept to Nov CET forecasts.

Have to assume "The trend is your friend" and will assume more of the same, therefore 6c with after Christmas.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

6.3oC for me please.

[guitarnutter]

can someone pop up a full list of guesses before the midnight deadline

ill go for 6.3

[The Penguin]

5.8C - confidently plucked from the air.

[snowray]

5.8C - confidently plucked from the air.

I'l try 6.7c please

[Glacier Point]

Last call for CET predictions, leg 1 CET Trophy midnight tonight. Thankyou.

[kold weather]

My CET prediction is going to be well wrong now I suspect, I think I've under-estimated the strength of the jet and how long it'll last, I'll up my forecast to 5.3C, up from 4.5C.

[Stratos Ferric]

can someone pop up a full list of guesses before the midnight deadline

ill go for 6.3

I'm not sure we have anybody called "someone". Isn't it interesting that proactivity the likes of Summer Blizzard's is significantly outweighed by people asking for others to do things on their behalf which they could easily do themselves...

[Roger J Smith]

I just got a text message from Rick Lemmmmmmmmmmmmming

and he asked for -14.2 ... he says he would go lower, but he noticed

the first half of the month would be about 9.

[osmposm]

I'm not sure we have anybody called "someone". Isn't it interesting that proactivity the likes of Summer Blizzard's is significantly outweighed by people asking for others to do things on their behalf which they could easily do themselves...

Not sure about "easily", Stratos, it's taken me HOURS....but here is a list in temperature order, lovingly drawn up by hand using pen & paper. My apologies for any errors or omissions, but some posts were so full of (fascinating, of course) blurb that it was occasionally difficult to see the wood for the trees. It's also late & I'm very tired. Any previous guess, sorry forecast is shown in brackets:

2.0 : THE EYE IN THE SKY

2.0 : memories of 63

2.8 : charlton north-downs

2.9 : snowmaiden

3.1 : Optimus Prime

3.4 : BristolBlizzard

3.6 : Serendipidity

3.7 : Lorraine Bennett

3.9 : Ian Brown

4.0 : fishdude

4.0 : Paul Carfoot

4.1 : Rollo

4.1 : mark bayley

4.3 : skiwi

4.3 : Intrepid

4.4 : STEADY EASTERLY

4.4 : conor123

4.5 : Steve Murr

4.5 : SNOW-MAN 2006

4.6 : Geordie Snow

4.7 : Robbie

4.7 : Iceberg (4.4)

4.8 : neforum2

4.8 : Wilson

4.8 : Glacier Point (4.5)

4.9 : Atlantic Flamethrower

4.9 : snowhope

4.9 : Mr Sleet

5.0 : shuggee

5.0 : WindWatcher

5.1 : James M

5.2 : Nick F

5.2 : Supercell

5.2 : mattneal

5.3 : DAVIDSNOW

5.3 : tugmistress

5.3 : kold weather (4.4)

5.4 : ukmoose

5.4 : Tamara G

5.4 : windswept

5.4 : Bottesford

5.5 : Cymru

5.5 : s4lancia

5.6 : Don

5.6 : summer blizzard

5.6 : JACKONE

5.6 : Stratos Ferric

5.7 : Persian Paladin

5.7 : Paul Sherman

5.7 : Joneseye

5.8 : Steve B

5.8 : The Penguin

5.9 : Snowyowl9

5.9 : Anti-Mild

5.9 : Mr Data

6.0 : Evo

6.0 : The PIT

6.0 : reef

6.0 : senior ridge

6.0 : Norrance

6.1 : Stargazer

6.1 : nigelonline

6.1 : Somerset Squall

6.2 : cheeky monkey

6.2 : Gray-Wolf

6.2 : Gavin P

6.2 : osmposm

6.3 : BLAST FROM THE PAST

6.3 : guitarnutter

6.3 : ChrisL

6.4 : stormchaser1

6.4 : Tom Partis

6.5 : Chilly Milly

6.6 : JohnAcc

6.7 : Scorcher

6.7 : snowray

6.8 : West is Best

7.0 : weatherwise

7.1 : Stephen Prudence

7.1 : Paul

7.3 : derby4life

8.3 : Roger J Smith

9.9 : tinybill

Let the contest - and the winter - begin!

[Stratos Ferric]

Osmposm, you're a star, and just as guitarnutter was about to do it for us as well; never mind! I suggest that everyone check and if they feel thay have been omitted enter a plea in this thread.

FOOTNOTE: That layout (number: name) not only makes the list easier to read, it also makes it easier to strip the data back in Excel.

Edited December 1, 2006 by Stratos Ferric