Tropical cyclone Yani

[Supercell Hunters]

GALE Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/0103 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI [995hPa] centre was located near 12.3 South

162.5 East at 220000 UTC. Position fair.

Repeat position 12.3S 162.5E at 220000 UTC.

Cyclone moving southeast at about 04 knots but expected to gradually

turn southwest.

Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots within 120 miles of centre in the

southeastern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern

semicircle, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast position near 13.2S 162.8E at 221200 UTC

and near 14.0S 162.5E at 230000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to

send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use

normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc

at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 010.

Wow that was quick! :lol:

[Supercell Hunters]

GALE Warning 012 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/0712 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI [990hPa] centre was located near 12.6 South

162.3 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair.

Repeat position 12.6S 162.3E at 220600 UTC.

Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 04 knots but expected to

gradually turn westwards.

Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 40 knots within 120 miles of centre in the

southeastern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern

semicircle, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast position near 12.6S 161.9E at 221800 UTC

and near 13.0S 161.5E at 230600 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to

send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use

normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc

at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 011.

RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.

[Supercell Hunters]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI

Nov 22/2013 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [985hPa] centre was located near 12.9S

162.8E at 221800 UTC moving south-southeast about 03 knots but

expected to turn west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery

with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50 knots

increasing to 60 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 47

knots within 30 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of

centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre

in the northwest semicircle.

Organisation steadily increasing though appearing sheared. Primary

band still wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and

west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of

0.85 on log10 spiral yielding DT=3.5, MET and PAT agree. Final T

based on DT thus T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south

of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak shear region. SST

around 28-29C. Yani expected to move west under strong mid level

ridge to east and south. Global models generally agree on a westward

track with gradual intensification.

FORECAST:

12hrs valid 230600UTC near 12.8S 162.4E mov W at 02kt with 55kt close

to centre.

24hrs valid 231800UTC near 12.9S 161.8E mov W at 02kt with 60kt close

to centre.

OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid 240600UTC near 13.3S 161.0E mov WSW at 03kt with 65kt

close to centre.

48hrs valid 241800UTC near 13.7S 159.9E mov WSW at 04kt with 70kt

close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued

around 230200 UTC.

Eye opening up!!!!!!!!!

[Supercell Hunters]

Tropical Cyclone YANI [970hPa] centre was located near 12.9 South 162.9 East at

230200 UTC.

Position good.

Repeat position 12.9S 162.9E at 230200 UTC.

Cyclone currently slow moving but expected to gradually turn towards the west.

Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre increasing to 75 knots in

the next 12 to 24 hours.

Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre

over 47 knots within 50 miles of centre and

over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern

semicircle

and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern

semicircle.

Forecast position near 12.6S 162.5E at 231200 UTC

and near 12.9S 161.7E at 240000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send

reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels.

Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 015.

[Supercell Hunters]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI

Nov 23/0738 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [965hPa] centre was located near

13.1S 163.0E at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR

imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but

expected to turn towards southwest in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 70 knots increasing to

80 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30

miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre,

and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the

southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the

northwestern semicircle.

Organisation steadily increasing. Ragged eye is again becoming cloud

filled on both EIR and VIS imageries. Outflow good to south and west

and fair elsewhere. Dvorak based on Eye Pattern yielding 5.0 with a

white eye with black surrounds. This yields a DT=5.0, MET=5.0 and

PAT=4.5. Final T based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone lies

just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak-shear

region. SST around 28-29C. Yani currently steered south by a

mid-level ridge pushing from the east but is however expected to

eventually drift west under strong mid level ridge to south. Global

models generally agree on a southwestward track with gradual

intensification.

FORECAST:

12hrs valid 231800UTC near 14.0S 162.7E mov SSW at 05kt with 75kt

close to centre.

24hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.1E mov SW at 05kt with 80kt

close to centre.

OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid 241800UTC near 14.8S 161.2E mov WSW at 05kt with 85kt

close to centre.

48hrs valid 250600UTC near 15.3S 160.0E mov WSW at 06kt with 85kt

close to centre.

[Somerset Squall]

Another unusual storm!

[P.K.]

In what way is this unusual? This area should be active this season given the current ENSO conditions.

[Supercell Hunters]

LOL it dying now, now it usual haha!

[Somerset Squall]

In what way is this unusual? This area should be active this season given the current ENSO conditions.

Well I meant uncommon really, looking back the last time storms formed in this area in Oct/Nov was 2001. 2003 was the last year for a late year storm in this area, the action is usually towards the beginning of the year as far as I can tell.

Edited November 24, 2006 by Somerset Squall