Weekly topic Discussion

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Well,

I have started this through my blog, however i thought it was a waste of time as not many people do view my blog. So today i bring you a weekly different topic. Last weeks was SSTA's and this week i bring the ensembles. I do wish you to add your views on the matters so that we can help everyones understanding. Below is a copy of last weeks subject.

'Well, A new area in my blog. SSTA's (Sea Surface Temperature Anomilies) play a major part in our weather. Above averge SSTA's can mean warmer coasts and Colder SSTA's may hint at colder weather. Here is the current SSTA out (avliable here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...=seatemps;sess= )

From this we can see (atlast) a major cooling event happening over the northern Hemisphere. The strong above average waters that where present over the atlantic in my winter Forecast are cooling as predicted. I feel this is a strong step towards a colder than average winter especially if the cooling rate continues. However, there are some warmer waters around greenland possibly encouraging low pressure development to the south of greenland but cooler waters to the north of greenland looking to favour a build of high pressure (correct me if im wrong). If i am right in this then the cool waters over the Atlantic would encourage a High pressure build forming a block and the warm waters over Africa may encourage low pressur build forming a NEgative NAO?!?!?! if so i feel colder weather may devlop later in the month. (if i am wrong please disgard the last few sentences). This Subject hs been opened to allow my blog viewers learn different topics and each sunday i will be changing the topic... Next one will be the Ensembles...

SNOW-MAN2006

ps feel free to comment on your views and what we could dicuss in the near furture... This is a learning oppurtunity for everyone '

So onto this weeks discussion 'The Ensembles'

Well the ensembles are funny little things that i barely dont take not off but they are very important in checking the reliablity of runs. This chart below reflects the different runs in Aberdeenshire. We can see that the temperatures up until 13th are in a reliable slot and most models agree that the temperatures are going to rise then fall then rise again. If you look at the red line it shows the mean temperature from all the runs and the blue line (i dont know). However the spread of data is so big by the time we reach Xmas day that anything could happen at this stage. It could be warm or cold. Ensembles in temperature do show us what we can expect and how reliable the runs are.

The precipitation graph shows the different runs view on how much it is going to rain. We can see that it is less confident in prediciting rainfall as rainfall is very tricky to predict however the mean line does show that the next few days will continue to be wet and windy.

so oveall ensembles arevery useful in showing us the reliabilty of runs.

I hope you have found this weeks topic discussion useful. I think if everybody adds views on the matter then we will get abroader understanding of the topic. Next weekend i willbe looking into the NAO and what positive,neutral and negative mean.

Many Thanks

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

There we are:

NAO

Weekly_topic_Discussion_3.ppt

Next time i will look into SNOW!!!! :lol: :lol:

SM06

[I can't believe it's not better]

Well I'd be interested to see where snow comes from on the models.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

What is snow?

Snow i basically frozen water

How is snow made?

Snow forms when it is a form of preciptation that consists of masses of certain types of tiny ice crystal. These crystals are called snow crystal they grow from water vaporation . A snow flakes have six sides but different in the shapes .

When does snow fall?

Often in winter when dew points are lower than 5 degress. Snow can settle at 0 degress (ground temp).

What are the best conditions for country wide snow?

Low pressure that has lots of moisture that pulls northerly winds behind it with plenty of bands of snow. These are oft en short events but more snow falls in the period.

When will we see snow?

At this rate never but i think mid-january will allow some snow to come our way.

Thats a basic yet quick guide to snow. MY next update is sunday as always where i will be looking at convectional rainfall. See you soon!

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Welcome back to my new guide to the weather for 2007. So far i have covered -

- SSTA's

- North Atlantic Oscillation

- Snow Formation

Im sure you will agree this is a small step in knowledge of the weather. This week i have looked at the different types oif rainfall that occur in the UK.

I will cover these areas in the near future however.....

- Low pressure & high pressure

- Wind speed and there directions

- Ocean Currents

- Temperature

- percipitation round ups

- Forecasting Methods

&

- The all important models

So below is my explination of Rainfall types and i bid you all the best for 2007

Types_of_Rainfall.ppt

Form more information just visit my blog which is hyperlinked below

SM06

Edited January 2, 2007 by SNOW-MAN2006

[fred600n]

hi snowman, at leest we are learning something thanks, fred.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

hi snowman, at leest we are learning something thanks, fred.

You very welcome. I am also teaching myself things also by researhing each topic and highlighting the important parts of the topic to make it easier for you to understand.

:unsure:

SM06

Also if anybody wants something discussing/explaining that is not on the list add a reply and i willtry my best to make a presentation or breif description on the matter but make sure it isnt on my to do list first

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Below is weekely topic discussion 6

Weather_Systems.ppt

SM06

[Stratos Ferric]

Below is weekely topic discussion 6

Weather_Systems.ppt

SM06

SM,

marvellous stuff...

One point: the direction of rotation in your systems is ONLY TRUE in the northern hemisphere. In the SH the directions are reversed. A gold star if you can research why the two systems rotate in opposing directions...

[pottyprof]

SM,

marvellous stuff...

One point: the direction of rotation in your systems is ONLY TRUE in the northern hemisphere. In the SH the directions are reversed. A gold star if you can research why the two systems rotate in opposing directions...

He already has a gold star.. How about giving him a spare computer??

[SNOW-MAN2006]

SM,

marvellous stuff...

One point: the direction of rotation in your systems is ONLY TRUE in the northern hemisphere. In the SH the directions are reversed. A gold star if you can research why the two systems rotate in opposing directions...

well there we are something else new that i have learnt. however onto my goldstar or as pottyprof puts it a new pc :

Areas of sinking air which result in high pressure are called anticyclones. The opposite to an anticyclone is the cyclone or depression.

High pressure systems have low pressure gradients (ie the air pressure doesn't change rapidly). This means that the winds are gentle. As the air sinks, it warms up, leading to warm and dry weather.

Anticyclones are much larger than depressions and can lead to many days or weeks of settled and calm weather. Anticyclones often block the path of depressions, either slowing down the bad weather, or forcing it round the outside of the high pressure system. They are then called 'Blocking Highs'.

As air descends, air pressure increases. When air hits the ground, it has to go somewhere. The earth's rotation makes the air change direction. In the Northern Hemisphere the air is pushed clockwise. In the Southern Hemisphere the air is pushed anticlockwise.

Here is the link- * http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/3sf.html * - More indepth detail

http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/anticyclones.htm - site for info above

http://www.bom.gov.au/info/weathmap/showwhat.htm - more useful info

SM06

ps thankyou for the positive feedback

or for the lazy ones a simplistic diagram

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Hi,

Wind speeds and their directions

Wind_Speeds_and_There_Directions.ppt

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Ocean currents

Ocean_Currents.ppt

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Temperatures

Temperature vary constantly. Temperatures range depending on Weather systems, Winbd direction and pooling of air. We have all learnt about the different weather systems and wind directions (where it is a linked in nicely) so temperature is a result of wind direction

Snow will most likely fall in a sub-zero dewpoint where temperature remains below 4 degress.

Chocolate melts at 30 degress

Really boring subject to talk about temperature but all you need to know on it is what we have been learning about wind direction, poooling and weatgher systems

SM06

On Sunday i will be looking at percipitation and how it links in with temperature in a bit more detail. Then i will be finishing of your learning experience the following sunday with the all important model intterpreation

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Precipitation.ppt

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

For the final weekly topic discussion i will be posting one of my model interpretations posts into here. I feel this will be a great learning oppurtunity for those who visit my discussion ( if you can call it that) Any hows see you on friday with my final entry...

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Bonus Feature;

The_creation_of_planet_earth.ppt

Enjoy

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Well, i have now ished this years learning Weekly discussion. I feel that i have now covered many areas to provide a foundation of knowledge for some people. Next years will begin in October and Persist through to January, next years topic will be associated with the world, i am already beginning planning on topic to include in next years episode...

-The atmosphere

-The stratosphere

-The Deep Blue abyss

-Volcanoes

-Earthquakes

-Thunderstorms

-Lightening

-Analysing PNA, NAO and AO to help compose my winter forecasts

-Analysis of how the Jetstream impacts our weather

-Our influence on the CO2 AGW warming theory

-Trends

-Torandoes

-Hurricanes

-Blizzards

-Ice rain

-Seasons

-And hopefullymuch much more....

Remeber you can easily download my presentations that are basic to provide easy understanding... if you cant load it go onto google and pdownload the free Microsfot powerpoint Viewer...

It has been very good providing this learning experience for some and i hope it has helped you learn some new things

'You learn something new every day'

SM06

See you all in October

[circlemaker]

Hello SM06,

I've now downloaded and read all your powerpoints and found them very useful in helping me understand some aspects of the weather. Did you say there is one on model interpretations? I can't seem to find it. It would be useful to get some tips on reading the models as I can see from the forums that the model discussion is central to a lot of peoples weather predictions.

Thanks

[Mad Murdoch]

thanks for all downloads ..

have a great spring/summer and see u in october

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Hello SM06,

I've now downloaded and read all your powerpoints and found them very useful in helping me understand some aspects of the weather. Did you say there is one on model interpretations? I can't seem to find it. It would be useful to get some tips on reading the models as I can see from the forums that the model discussion is central to a lot of peoples weather predictions.

Thanks

If you look on my blog there is one on there on the second page in my little learning area, when if ind some time i will post a new one with more help on identifying developments in the models.

Thanks Kelly F, you have a good one to! Hope you enjoy it with tilly

Goodbye for now and any further questions dont hesitate to PM me as i rarely visit the Learning area so any questions just give em to me straight to avoid delay

For October i will be creating a specific design.... quite exciting really for me but more on that in october

SM06

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Here is just a taster of what is to come in October,

How_the_jet_stream_affects_the_worlds_weather_.ppt

Hope you enjoy and find it informative!

Level:

V.Easy

-----> Easy <-----

Moderate

Hard

V.Hard

Many thanks,

SM06