Serbian forecasting

[-JC-]

I'm off to Kopaonik in Serbia (1700-2000m) on the 21st of January for 7days of snowboarding and after my request for an "individual forecast" fell on deaf ears I was wondering if any weather sages would mind sharing a little wisdom

With the resort being at an ok altitude (and I guess influenced by the adriatic sea) what should I look for when trying to work out if there'll be snow on my holiday, I'm using these models:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html (850hPa Temp. Mittel)

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html (MSLP, 1000-500mb Thickness, & Precipitation & 850mb Temperature, RH & Wind Flags)

but I don't really know what I'm looking for, am I right in thinking that cold tempratures, combined with low pressure and lots of percipitation means means heaps of snow?

If so what is most likely to influence these conditions in serbia.

Please help this is my third appeal

[johnholmes]

JC

Its too far ahead for anyone to be able to give you a forecast.

As to the charts, yes msl/500mb, 850mb, and ppn charts are going to be your best guide.

Don't take too much as gospel beyond about 120 hours though.

Your height(resort) around the 6,000ft mark should be in your favour. The 850mb is roughly 5000ft so its temp will give a reasonable indication of the expected temp.

hope that helps

John

[Lukaslo]

I'm from Slovenia which is not that far away from serbia and we almost always have snow in winter covering the ground above 1200m (where I live(but Slovenia is small)). So I think that there should be snow for whole winter acctualy enough to snowboard. But don't take my word.

cold tempratures, combined with low pressure and lots of percipitation means means heaps of snow?

Guessing that we have simmilar climate here I think that you should have snow for whole winter up there, but as I said I am not 100% sure

[BrickFielder]

Current weather conditions with temperatures topping out at about freezing would suggest you should not have any problems. Check out the webcam to see what it is like.

Web Cam

[-JC-]

Thanks for all the great advice, I've been watching the webcams since they were created and if the freezing level rises above 2000m (which it looks set to do by the end of next week) I fear for what would become of the little snow that exists on the mountain... this same thing happened to decembers snow.

If this storm that the GFS is predicting over spain materialises will that destroy any hopes for any snow falling over serbia before the 21st?