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Atlantic hurricane season 07


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The April MEI data is available, 1994, 1991, 1984, 1979, 1959, 1957 and 1952 are the anologues that i will include in my 2007 hurricane season forecast.

We are just awaiting the PDO data now, but 1994, 1979 and 1959 seem to be leading the way.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Not really sure you can use 1994 though SB, because it had two huge differences to the set-up this summer and while the factors you mention are important obviously the ENSO state and SST's are the most important and both look different from 1994.

firstly SSt's, as this map shows the May anomalies showed overall a rather cool tropical part of the Atlantic through to the Caribbean which is different to now which has much warmer SSt's in general across most of the Basin:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data....94.anomaly.gif

Secondly we were heading towards a weak El nino event, which in fact become el nino as early as September/October and shut the season down early:

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/images/appli...enso/nino94.gif

This year we have just come out of an El nino and we may be heading towards a weak La Nina which obviously is another rather sizable difference. Last season was more like 1994 hurricane season in regards to the developing El nino. Right now they are close but come August/September I suspect differences to grow quite a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I'd only just started looking at the anologues in detail, and i plan to look at all the anologues in each teleconnection group, to see if the favoured anologues (ones which show in more than one teleconnection) have backing.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The April PDO data is available, and the anologues i will be using in my 2007 hurricane season forecast are 1990 and 1960.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

I have to admit with the varying effects on ENSO in the modern climate, I am not sure that correlations with past years really work.

The ITCZ looks to be pretty active so far this year and with SST's in the average category the only real limitor to TS formation will be shear. Shear, particularly around the GOM is hugely impacted by any kind of postive ENSO.

Only a few weeks to go until the start of the season now though....Come on you ITCZ move north....!

Matt

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