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Huge Storm to Batter Britain


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Thought it wise to get the first salvo in, although, at the time of being questioned by the Express, this really did look a distinct possibility and to some extent, still does.

Granted, it was only 2% of the actual over all statistical readout, right on the extreme far edge of foreecasts, as the other 298 models saw a less severe look to matters, however, I couldn't ignore the 2%. It would have been a Mr Fish incident, the storms that weren't supposed to but actually did.

I didn't, (to the best of my knowledge), call it a "beast" either.

As for Piers, well, he might be right, but I don't think it's going to sink that far south.

All models pointed toward disruption, I think I've said enough for now, I'll get me coat

Jonathan

PWS

How it's compiled: 300 plus computer models that I run from self written software, collating data of my own since 1979.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    tks for taking the time out Jonathan to explain, to some extent, what most of us saw on the Net page for the Express.

    At some stage it might be useful if you could explain more about your methods on this forum.

    I have to say, by your own admission, to go to press based on 2% is a rather dramatic idea, when 98% of your own forecast data suggested otherwise.

    John Holmes

    Senior Forecaster for Net Weather

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    I guess the question boils down to 'How much integrity do you want to maintain as a weather forecaster', because we all know that if, as a forecaster, you provide information along the lines of 'There is a one in fifty chance of a major severe storm affecting the whole of the UK' to either the Daily Express or Mail, then the following day's headline will be 'Severe storm set to batter Britain'.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    Thought it wise to get the first salvo in, although, at the time of being questioned by the Express, this really did look a distinct possibility and to some extent, still does.

    Granted, it was only 2% of the actual over all statistical readout, right on the extreme far edge of foreecasts, as the other 298 models saw a less severe look to matters, however, I couldn't ignore the 2%. It would have been a Mr Fish incident, the storms that weren't supposed to but actually did.

    I didn't, (to the best of my knowledge), call it a "beast" either.

    As for Piers, well, he might be right, but I don't think it's going to sink that far south.

    All models pointed toward disruption, I think I've said enough for now, I'll get me coat

    Jonathan

    PWS

    How it's compiled: 300 plus computer models that I run from self written software, collating data of my own since 1979.

    Well done you for joining and posting!

    Regards. Ian

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
    try reading the posts, not just the headline :wallbash:

    my post was originally in another thread, to do with model forecasting - the admins have moved it into this discussion.

    (odd i know)

    mammatus replied to it.

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...35321&st=85

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    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    Hey guys! Do you think i should "tip off" the Express or Mail and mention that a monster low is gonna churn through the N.Atlantic at T+300hrs (on the 06z run)?!

    I mean, isn't this what it boils down too?

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    Hey guys! Do you think i should "tip off" the Express or Mail and mention that a monster low is gonna churn through the N.Atlantic at T+300hrs (on the 06z run)?!

    I mean, isn't this what it boils down too?

    i'm starting to suspect just that! Part of their forcast may well involve trawling through 'our' threads and picking our brains.......god help them!

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    Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

    As I've said elsewhere: it looks like being stormy - but no more so that normal for the time of year. However I suspect that the Express felt that a headline "Normal January Weather Expected in January" wasn't going to quite work ...... :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl
  • Location: Shoeburyness, Essex - 6.2m asl
    so basically, the express screaming headline was based on a 2 per cent probability?

    That's 2% more than normal for them in that case! :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Stewartstown (51m asl) , N.Ireland. (In Dazzling Dazza Land)
  • Location: Stewartstown (51m asl) , N.Ireland. (In Dazzling Dazza Land)
    so basically, the express screaming headline was based on a 2 per cent probability?

    express.gif

    Would seem so, but then again, if they put the headline stating 2% probability then it wouldn't sell. As has been stated before, the general british public tend to have a short memory with regard to these type of stories and as such when it doesn't come off everyone would have forgotton about it anyway (other than us lot of course :wallbash: )

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    Posted
  • Location: Brecon Beacons, South Wales
  • Location: Brecon Beacons, South Wales

    The screaming exaggeration about the damage caused by the tornado in Kensal Rise shows how little they are to be believed: "the tornado that destroyed hundreds of homes ... last month". Um, about 150 were damaged, ranging from the end-of-terrace house which lost a wall (which is going to be repaired) to those which lost their entire roof and that lost just a few tiles or some windows. Most people seem to have moved back in - at least there were lots of lights on when I went past yesterday evening.

    It was interesting to read Jonathan Powell's un-hyped version of what he said to the Express, to get a clearer idea of what they're up to. Bring back the Princess Diana front page exclusives!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Welcome to the Forum Jonathan. :unsure:

    You seem to have the knack of being able to get in the Media headlines.

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=861063

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    The screaming exaggeration about the damage caused by the tornado in Kensal Rise shows how little they are to be believed: "the tornado that destroyed hundreds of homes ... last month". Um, about 150 were damaged, ranging from the end-of-terrace house which lost a wall (which is going to be repaired) to those which lost their entire roof and that lost just a few tiles or some windows. Most people seem to have moved back in - at least there were lots of lights on when I went past yesterday evening.

    It was interesting to read Jonathan Powell's un-hyped version of what he said to the Express, to get a clearer idea of what they're up to. Bring back the Princess Diana front page exclusives!

    Thank you for the more constructive and understanding feedback from the forum, other forums on other sites have been less unforgiving.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone
    Welcome to the Forum Jonathan. :)

    You seem to have the knack of being able to get in the Media headlines.

    http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=861063

    In reply to your link Kar although the temps before christmas were not correct we did indeed have some very windy storms which produced lots of rain on or near 1st Jan. So Jonathan called that one quite well. He also said in that excerpt you posted that temps would be above normal at 12*C or so well i can say down here his temp predictions were spot on. I am still wearing tshirts under my coat. :rolleyes:

    The forcasters cannot be right all the time and the example you posted does have some of the events included in it which we have experienced.

    It's the tabloids who blow things out of proportion not the forcasters. It sells papers and our weather has always been a much talked about topic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
    Thank you for the more constructive and understanding feedback from the forum, other forums on other sites have been less unforgiving.

    You're welcome I'm sure mate - but surely you mean forgiving?!! :rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
    You're welcome I'm sure mate - but surely you mean forgiving?!! :wallbash:

    today the metro had 2 stories , one a photo strap about mild weather bringing the daffs out in Cornwall, the second one on the next page about "the big cool down" this winter bringing the threat of bird flu from Russia.

    ever feel like you're living in a parallel universe?

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    Posted
  • Location: Doncaster 50 m asl
  • Location: Doncaster 50 m asl

    The initial story contained the following:

    "06/01/07

    By Jo Macfarlane

    KILLER storms are set to rip into Britain again next week, weather experts warned last night...Experts said the destructive winds will begin building from Wednesday, gusting across England and Wales and picking up speed towards the weekend."

    The introductory lines appear to have been, well, correct.

    Further down the article we have:

    "Not all forecasters, however, agreed that the storm would hit Britain. They predicted the threat of blizzards instead.

    Piers Corbyn, ... who predicted the New Year chaos, said he still expected the weather front to track further south.

    This would allow an Arctic blast to bring freezing temperatures and up to six inches of snow across the whole country.

    “One can never be sure of timing, but we think the winds will drift south towards the continent,” he said.

    “Eastern winds will bring freezing conditions, with heavy snowfall. It will be the worst winter weather of the season so far.

    “There is intense activity on the weather maps, but the path of the storm will result in either more wind and rain or Arctic conditions.”

    Oops! (Unless anyone knows different.)

    Today in Rotherham I drove through a bonnet deep flood to school, only to be sent home due to the "worst" extreme rainfall that I have ever experienced. If that amount of precipitation had fallen as snow then I would still be digging myself out! :hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    Well the lastest run shows a killer storm next thursday,it is a week away but todays storm was stronger than expected and the way this winter shaping it`s somewhat like the 1990`s storms.

    http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1681.png :hi:

    http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1741.png

    Hopefully it`ll downgrade from that slightly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

    Cue Daily Express headlines... :hi:

    There should have been a rider in the middle of that quote "But also predicted Blizzards for yesterday and today - which erm....". Then it would be accurate.

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