Annual CET 2007

[Snowly does it]

Pure guess but I'm going for 10.46

Predicting a seasonal CET is hard enough but for a whole year? Not easy, only takes one month to stitch you up.

Yes, I think the interest here is more to see what people expect than any realistic LRFing, although anyone doing this on the basis of their LRF investigation gets extra kudos if they get close!

[Duane S.]

A good (cold) Feb'07 with Jan being way above average (virtually unavoidable now).

Just below average March and a wet, windy and very mild April.

Spring early summer to be a non-event with a lot of cloud and overall coming in slightly below average.

Summer itself to be intermittant with both very hot spells and long-lasting unseasonably cool ones. Overal though, to come in at a fraction above average but with a long late end to the summer coutesy of a blistering September.

Bang on average October before the start of Nov through to December herald some very cold spells indeed

CET 10.07

[reef]

Some of the values put forward here are extremely high and I hope that they dont occur. If every month were to be equal to the perspective record the year would end at 12.98°C. However, even in a warming trend, it would be unheard of to have more than a few months in the year equalling the record. While I think gone are the days where we can achieve a below 10°C annual CET, it remains to be seen whether 2006 is another jerk upwards or just a simple outlier.

A few observations though:

We havent had a below average May since 1996, I have sneaky feeling that 2007 might provide a more wintry May than we have become accustomed to.

A fifth consecutive very warm June would be remarkable, as would a third consecutive September. I have a feeling that the 'closer to average weather' will hit back when its least wanted, during summer.

We are overdue an average or cool Autumn, even in a warming trend we should expect a cooler Autumn sooner or later (whether cooler is +0.5°C above average or not remains to be seen).

Personally Im going to go for a rather 'average' (by the modern definition) 10.61°C. While I have no doubt the year will be well above average, I do believe we will have a cooler summer/Autumn, especially if the El Nino holds.

Edited January 7, 2007 by reef

[Gavin P]

I think we'll almost inevitably get an 11+ CET for mid 2006 to mid 2007, but I think we'll have to wait a little longer for an 11+ CET to fall within the 12 months of a single year, i.e. 2007. However, I'm confident it'll happen with the next 5 years, and who knows, it *may* just be this year.

[SP1986]

11.1C for me, an ordinary mild winter, a largely mild-warm spring, a mild summer (maybe hotter spells at times) and a mild start to winter

Mild overall, I dont think there will be a scorching summer but consistently warm one. No real cold spells, but the year will be wet.

So there's a complete guess, it was fun though.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm going to go on 10.11oC. Dont ask why, but i'm basing it on the CFS till September (although my correlation is purely on above and below projections, and not any specific numerics).

I was thinking of trying a sub 10oC, but I think alot will depend on the later 3-4 months of the year.

For the UK, I think we may have to wait for our hottest year ever, but that is, just my personal opinion.

[The PIT]

11C for me.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

11.55C

The North Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while the North Sea has yet to cool down from summer. I don't expect winter to arrive early in Europe. Throughout 2007 air will arrive significantly modified by the warm seas and take longer to cool. So I expect a hot summer like last year but perhaps with an August that actually delivers.

Edited January 7, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[North-Easterly Blast]

Is it ever possible we will ever even see an annual CET on a par with 2001 EVER AGAIN?

To get a sub 9*C CET, or even a yearly CET as low as 1996, I would say that you really need a very cold winter or at least one or two very cold winter months (sub 2*C). In the 1900s, you will notice that most of the sub 9*C years had cold winter months.

You would have thought that there was a chance of a 2001 type year after the March last year, but the rest of 2006 didn't play ball with 2001, especially the June, July, September and December. Although the first quarter or even first third of 2006 was similar in CETs overall to 2001, the June, July, September and December of 2001 all had much lower CETs than the same months in 2006, so that is what did it with 2001.

[parmenides3]

Atlanic SSTAs have been +1C or greater for most of the basin for over a year.

Moderate El Nino could well persist past March, as CPC models show considerable uncertainty; my pitch is for it to persist into May-June, with a drop-off after that. This would continue to impact on climate for some months after it has gone away.

MetO Winter forecast suggests continued mildness with the odd cold snap; enough to dampen the overall temp. somewhat, but:

Spring to be milder than average, wetter and windier than average.

At least one month - probably August - to top 20C (a bit bold, perhaps...), or one 30 day period.

Substantial drought conditions in South & East England.

Next Autumn/Winter similar to this year.

Overall: the 11C barrier is a goner. Warmest year on record in both UK and globally.

2007 CET = 11.1C.

Bear in mind my track record on prediction is very poor. If I'm within 0.5C I'll be happy...

:)P

[Stratos Ferric]

Is it ever possible we will ever even see an annual CET on a par with 2001 EVER AGAIN?

To get a sub 9*C CET, or even a yearly CET as low as 1996, I would say that you really need a very cold winter or at least one or two very cold winter months (sub 2*C). In the 1900s, you will notice that most of the sub 9*C years had cold winter months.

You would have thought that there was a chance of a 2001 type year after the March last year, but the rest of 2006 didn't play ball with 2001, especially the June, July, September and December. Although the first quarter or even first third of 2006 was similar in CETs overall to 2001, the June, July, September and December of 2001 all had much lower CETs than the same months in 2006, so that is what did it with 2001.

NEB,

I think the graphs I've posted in the Winter CET thread answer that question rather compellingly.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=35353

...see post 14.

Edited January 7, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Anti-Mild]

I think we'll see a mild start to the year followed by a mild Spring, a mild (but not hot) Summer, a cool Autumn and an average December, resulting in a final annual CET of.....drrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr (that's a drumroll in case you were wondering) :lol:

...... 10.28c

Edited January 7, 2007 by Anti-Mild

[Thundery wintry showers]

Britain does seem to have warmed more than the global average (the globe has warmed by about 0.5C over the 1961-90 average). To get a <10C CET, temperatures need to be less than 0.5C above the 1961-90 average.

Given that most are considering that we might never get a <10C year ever again, it illustrates the fact that as the planet warms up, some regions will warm appreciably more than others.

[Nick F]

I think if we finish with a wet winter with above average rainfall over England, which is looking likely atm with continued zonality, and also average to above rainfall though spring - then the chances of a record breaking hot summer like last year will be perhaps reduced in the South by virtue of the ground not being so dry as last summer - which came after a protracted drought in the South.

It is known that dry ground helps increase surface temps by radiating back more of the sun's energy to the surface layers due to lack of moisture in the ground to absorb it. So therefore summer CETs as high as last summer are IMO less likely this year - unless we have a very dry February and Spring. Less anomalous warmth may carry on into the autumn months as a result, but this is less certain - particularly if areas South of the UK see a prolonged heatwave in the summer.

A lower annual CET than 2006 would be my bet - so I'll plump for 10.5C

[I can't believe it's not better]

Wouldn't wet ground 'save up' high temp over a mild winter and give us a head start next year - oops I mean this year! (?)

I'm wondering if the surface moisture wouldn't dissapear quite readily, as it seems to in my (clayish) garden - or does the deeper moisture continue wicking to the surface? Depends on soil type maybe??

Mind you, were not exactly getting more exposed soil surfaces as time goes on.

Edit; oh, we probably are...

Edited January 7, 2007 by I can't believe it's not better

[Stratos Ferric]

I think if we finish with a wet winter with above average rainfall over England, which is looking likely atm with continued zonality, and also average to above rainfall though spring - then the chances of a record breaking hot summer like last year will be perhaps reduced in the South by virtue of the ground not being so dry as last summer - which came after a protracted drought in the South.

It is known that dry ground helps increase surface temps by radiating back more of the sun's energy to the surface layers due to lack of moisture in the ground to absorb it. So therefore summer CETs as high as last summer are IMO less likely this year - unless we have a very dry February and Spring. Less anomalous warmth may carry on into the autumn months as a result, but this is less certain - particularly if areas South of the UK see a prolonged heatwave in the summer.

A lower annual CET than 2006 would be my bet - so I'll plump for 10.5C

Not sure Nick. Net ET follows the sun across the sky - the ground is invariably moist in winter whatever, and dry in summer - aprt from during and after very heavy rain. I don't think it needs a drought for the ground to be dry enough to support high temps, even just 3-4 days of warm and breezy weather would suffice.

[I can't believe it's not better]

Around 10.2C, I think it'll be a bit cooler than we've had lately. I think the two ends of the year will be almost shockingly wet. (but not in the SE corner-ish of UK, where it will be above average temps again and similarly low rainfall). And that's just the @@@@ing weather!

[Dazza]

Right, i'll stick my neck out too and go for an annual 2007 CET of 11.57

[reef]

Not sure Nick. Net ET follows the sun across the sky - the ground is invariably moist in winter whatever, and dry in summer - aprt from during and after very heavy rain. I don't think it needs a drought for the ground to be dry enough to support high temps, even just 3-4 days of warm and breezy weather would suffice.

Indeed, we need to remember that last year's warm June and July came on the back of an incredibly wet May, as did September after a wet August. The same argument is often applied to snowfall and ground temperatures, when in reality a few days of frost before snow and a few dry days before a heatwave will usually be enough.

[Great Plum]

Well, I am going to plump for 10.63c

I'm not yet thinking that it will be the warmest year ever but we will see...

[Stargazer]

Pure guesswork of course...10.49.

[Calrissian]

Right, i'll stick my neck out too and go for an annual 2007 CET of 11.57

Woo hoo ! Welcome to the >11.5 group of people.

I do think its 'something to aim for'. So, when temps are in the mid 30s for most of the summer, we can be safe in our prediction, even if autumn is relatively normal.

--

I note a few <10.5s, and I just can't see that happening. Part of me hopes I am wrong, after all, last years night heat was unbearable at times in London.

Calrissian: does 11.95 make him crazy or bold, or both?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

El Nino to be neutral moving into La Nina by May/June. Summer to be very different to this year and somewhat less hot. Autumn hmmmm...warm so i'll go for cooler than this year and 10.48C.

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sarah7meme]

hello netweatherers

if i wanted to research the weather on a given date in history eg - past 10 years weather on feb 1st... do you know of a freely accessible website where this is achievable?

thanks in advance x

[Snowly does it]

hello netweatherers

if i wanted to research the weather on a given date in history eg - past 10 years weather on feb 1st... do you know of a freely accessible website where this is achievable?

thanks in advance x

N-W has archive charts in the datacentre for any date - you can work out the relevant conditions from that?