Annual CET 2007

[Calrissian]

i would agree as i think the second part of the year will be cooler then the first and there will at least be some kind of balancing out

Indeed, but then...where was the balance in the last 10, even 15 years ? Its just an almost relentless trend of increasing temps.

A nice sunny, but changable summer would be nice (I'm no fan of those unbearable sleepless +20c nights), but the odds are not good.

*The met noted a 1 in 8 chance of a heatwave/summer 2003, I'd reverse those odds. I'd say we've no more than a 15% or so chance of an 'average' summer from decades past. Its a brave person who will suggest otherwise.

Calrissian: LOST is back on form !

[Don]

Yes a 11C is looking very decent possiblity, usually the 10.6C warm winter years have a cool April or May yet so far April is only adding to thwe warmth, so 11C is looking possible, esp when you remmeber it was only a fairly average winter and early Spring that save dus from a 11C year last year.

Whilst I agree that 11C is very feasible, I have a feeling that although this coming Summer will be warmer than average, I don't think it will be as warm as last year. Given that I feel that this year could have an overall CET similar to that of last year at around 10.8C. Very close to a record breaker and very warm but not quite making it.

[Stratos Ferric]

...Important to remember we are still in need of a similarly astonishing summer and autumn and early winter as last year to break the 11 barrier even with the racing start - although Aprils final outturn will make it all the easier from here....

Not sure why the UK is taking the brunt of warming far far more than most of the world - we appear to be a full half degree ahead of the game, rather annoying.

Disagree with that SM. We look like being (at the very least) 8 cumulative degrees up by the end of April. We need around 2 of those to make the jump from 10.8 to 11.0, so we'd have six in hand. Those six, c.f. last year, would allow say:

1C off June (instead of a top 30 finish, something around the 100 mark in the all time list)

3C off July (instead of a no.1 finish, something around the top quartile - hardly excessive nowadays, and relatively cool by current standards)

2C off September (would still be a top 20 finish) - or 1C off each of Nov + Dec taking each down to around the 100th place mark.

That would still leave a warmish May, a very average (by recent standards) August, and, yes, a still warm autumn (whether due to a very high September + Oct, or a high Nov + Dec). The "however" this time is that most recent years produce numerous top 50 months: we've had:

2006 - 6 (in the last 7 months of the year)

2005 - 5

2004 - 4

2003 - 6

2002 - 6

2001 - 4

2000 - 3

1999 - 7

1998 - 4

1997 - 4

And most of the remainder are in the 51-100 range!

We've probably already done almost enough to secure last year's 10.8C or so, and the additional 2.5 or so degrees that would take us down to the previous "high water" of around 10.6 would more than correct for September and October.

The long and short of it is that unless we get some genuine absolute cool weather in the next 3-4 months then this year is just going to reinforce the current seemingly inexorable trend upwards.

...oh, and we're not alone, nor are we the warmest. Various of my chums across Europe have been telling me of unusual warmth. The modern climate is not bounded by British inshore waters!

[Calrissian]

re:

2006 - 6 (in the last 7 months of the year)

2005 - 5

2004 - 4

2003 - 6

2002 - 6

2001 - 4

2000 - 3

1999 - 7

1998 - 4

1997 - 4

----

Looking at that list, a typical 5 could be expected, with the 'alarmists' people perhaps being bold enough to suggest 7...even 8.

If we get 8 this year, will that convince even the die-hard doubters ?

Calrissian: good luck, on this great 13'th

[Stratos Ferric]

re:

2006 - 6 (in the last 7 months of the year)

2005 - 5

2004 - 4

2003 - 6

2002 - 6

2001 - 4

2000 - 3

1999 - 7

1998 - 4

1997 - 4

----

Looking at that list, a typical 5 could be expected, with the 'alarmists' people perhaps being bold enough to suggest 7...even 8.

If we get 8 this year, will that convince even the die-hard doubters ?

Calrissian: good luck, on this great 13'th

We've only ever had one year start with 4/4 (2002: 44-8-18-45), though we've had some spectacular 3 from 4s. 1990 yielded 10-3-4-163: 1961 had 137-9-6-12: 1954 had 318-6-10-9. We're all but at the point where we'll have bagged another 4/4.

I'd have to run the stats but a single 7 or 8/12 on its own could be viewed as a quirk of low statisitical significance. In the context of the recent pattern, however, on the face of it it would provide yet another manifestation of the obvious trend.

2002, by the way, went on to have three disappointing months after the mild start.

Edited April 13, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Roger J Smith]

Those are interesting cases of warmth because each one of them produced some very warm weather in the Great Lakes region as well. Possibly this points to either solar heating increase or pattern teleconnection in long-wave ridges in the two regions. By the way, when I looked into this, I noticed that 1954 above should read 1945, I think.

Taking the examples given, in 1990 there were some very unusual temperature records in mid-March in the Great Lakes region, some of them 5 C degrees above previous date records. April continued fairly warm in our case. In 1961 the warmth came more in February and faded out during March, leaving a below normal April. And in 1945 it was very warm all through March and the first half of April, probably about 6 C degrees above normal for a six week stretch, then it turned very chilly and by the first week of June, it was a similar amount below normal with the latest spring snow report for some places.

Going further back, 1921 was a very warm year in the Toronto records except for November and December, and I think something similar appears in the CET records too.

However, there are probably a lot of other cases where anomaly signs are reversed, indicating perhaps a shorter wave length in those cases. For example, the winter of 1949-50 was very mild in the Great Lakes region.

[Snowly does it]

The long and short of it is that unless we get some genuine absolute cool weather in the next 3-4 months then this year is just going to reinforce the current seemingly inexorable trend upwards.

...oh, and we're not alone, nor are we the warmest. Various of my chums across Europe have been telling me of unusual warmth. The modern climate is not bounded by British inshore waters!

No OK thats fair, however we need to separate the exceptional 'current' situation - re exceptional warmth in much of Europe and the longer term fact of a UK a half degree ahead of the game for many (not all).

Is the current situation some sort of 'lurch'? Thats the question and it becomes more likely to be so the longer we go on warming like this.

With regards to 10.8/11.0 plus, OK, statistically you have me there but I still say it requires 3/4 months of seeing what transpires to nail it.

[ukmoose]

The entries so far... I haven't rounded any of the figures so some appear to two decimal places.

eddie:9.9

S4lancia: 10.07C

Cheeky Monkey: 10.1C

ChrisL: 10.11C

Paul Tall: 10.2C

Anti-Mild: 10.28C

Sundog: 10.3C

Kold Weather: 10.35C

Terminal Moraine:10.4

Mr Maunder: 10.42C

Mr Data: 10.46C

Blast from the Past:10.48

Stargazer:10.49

nick F: 10.5C

Snow-Man2006: 10.53C

Atlantic Flamethrower: 10.55C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.59C

Don:10.6

Reef: 10.61C

Summer Blizzard:10.68

Joneseye: 10.69C

Magpie: 10.71C

Snowmaiden: 10.74C

Gavin P: 10.8C

Stratos Ferric: 10.9C

Somerset Squall:10.9

Bessy:10.97

Optimus Prime: 10.99C

The Pit: 11C

West Is Best: 11.01C

Iceberg:11.01

high ground birm:11.05

Windswept: 11.1C

Stephen Prudence: 11.1C

Parmenides3: 11.1C

Roger J Smith:11.1

SteveB: 11.5C

Ukmoose:11.79

Craig Evans: 11.8C

Calrissian: 11.95C

jimmyay:12

Moose

[Thundersquall]

The charts on a post above suggest a whopping 8 C temperature anomaly between Novaya Semyla and Svalbard.

That is to say the least worrying, as the sea ice may well melt much sooner this year probably due to global warming.

[Stu_London]

The entries so far... I haven't rounded any of the figures so some appear to two decimal places.

eddie:9.9

S4lancia: 10.07C

Cheeky Monkey: 10.1C

ChrisL: 10.11C

Paul Tall: 10.2C

Anti-Mild: 10.28C

Sundog: 10.3C

Kold Weather: 10.35C

Terminal Moraine:10.4

Mr Maunder: 10.42C

Mr Data: 10.46C

Blast from the Past:10.48

Stargazer:10.49

nick F: 10.5C

Snow-Man2006: 10.53C

Atlantic Flamethrower: 10.55C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 10.59C

Don:10.6

Reef: 10.61C

Summer Blizzard:10.68

Joneseye: 10.69C

Magpie: 10.71C

Snowmaiden: 10.74C

Gavin P: 10.8C

Stratos Ferric: 10.9C

Somerset Squall:10.9

Bessy:10.97

Optimus Prime: 10.99C

The Pit: 11C

West Is Best: 11.01C

Iceberg:11.01

high ground birm:11.05

Windswept: 11.1C

Stephen Prudence: 11.1C

Parmenides3: 11.1C

Roger J Smith:11.1

SteveB: 11.5C

Ukmoose:11.79

Craig Evans: 11.8C

Calrissian: 11.95C

jimmyay:12

Moose

Ridiculous as it may now seem, my punt of 9.96C doesn't seem to have made the list. Can this be rectified please!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

...oh, and we're not alone, nor are we the warmest. Various of my chums across Europe have been telling me of unusual warmth. The modern climate is not bounded by British inshore waters!

Yes; that chart certainly puts things into perspective. (I frequently browse that site myself, which incidentally is largely because Stratos alerted me to it via pm!) I certainly remember that during January in particular, much of continental Europe had a record breaking month; Moscow was some 8C above the 1961-90 average according to Weather Log.

[Calrissian]

I'm somewhat annoyed that jimmyay had the audacity to go above my 11.95 :lol:

*As I've noted, 11.25 would be my current 'realistic' prediction, but ya know, for hell of it, I thought I'd aim above everyone else, if only to provoke a few laughs.

--

Well, another mild day...another step towards the higher end of the netweather posters predictions.

Calrissian: time for lunch

[Bobby]

The charts on a post above suggest a whopping 8 C temperature anomaly between Novaya Semyla and Svalbard.

That is to say the least worrying, as the sea ice may well melt much sooner this year probably due to global warming.

That's been there for a few months I think, I remember seeing it in the winter too. A bit odd.

[Stratos Ferric]

That's been there for a few months I think, I remember seeing it in the winter too. A bit odd.

I suspect that if you go a peruse the 365 day anomaly (below) you'll see it's been there longer than that. The sustained anomaly at the pole is one the one hand staggering, but on the other in line with much of the modelling of GW. It's easy, on that basis, to see why the ice may well be thinning markedly, if not as yet declining in surface area quite so dramatically.

Those arguing elsewhere that the UK has been getting the thick end of the wedge re warming will note that that's actually far from the case. The only places not warming much more than us are generally the sub-tropical dry zones that are already hot.

[Snowly does it]

Those arguing elsewhere that the UK has been getting the thick end of the wedge re warming will note that that's actually far from the case. The only places not warming much more than us are generally the sub-tropical dry zones that are already hot.

That is a map of temperature anomolies over the last year, I was referring to the general warming trend, not the (very) recent one

If you have a similar map showing I am wrong re the UK over the last 20 years say then OK, games up, but that one there doesn't really show anything at all other than what happened last year

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

ukmoose, thank you for including me on that list! However you have a significant typo -

I predicted 11.55 not 10.55

11.55C

The North Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while the North Sea has yet to cool down from summer. I don't expect winter to arrive early in Europe. Throughout 2007 air will arrive significantly modified by the warm seas and take longer to cool. So I expect a hot summer like last year but perhaps with an August that actually delivers.

[Stratos Ferric]

ukmoose, thank you for including me on that list! However you have a significant typo -

I predicted 11.55 not 10.55

You may well find that you're about 0.5C out whichever way the typo goes.

[Optimus Prime]

Well so far this year (upto today) we're 1.85c above the January-April norm. If we get a hot summer we could be over 2.0c above by August.

So anything upwards of 11.6c is looking not impossible at the moment.

[Stu_London]

Well so far this year (upto today) we're 1.85c above the January-April norm. If we get a hot summer we could be over 2.0c above by August.

So anything upwards of 11.6c is looking not impossible at the moment.

If it is anywhere near 11.6C, humanity may as well pack up and go home now.

Thankfully, somewhere around 11.0C is altogether much more likely - although a couple of below average months (rare I know) could easily knock things back to about 10.6C

[Stratos Ferric]

Well so far this year (upto today) we're 1.85c above the January-April norm. If we get a hot summer we could be over 2.0c above by August.

So anything upwards of 11.6c is looking not impossible at the moment.

The sole reason why I doubt that we'll end the year that high is because of the run of spectacularly warm months we had in the second half. Autumn came in 0.8C above the next warmest ever, in what is a normally distributed data set. It was all but a full standard deviation from the next nearest data point in a set with a range, previously, of just 4.30C. To extend the range by 0.8C (almost 20%) given the size of the data set, is quite astonishing, and possibly one of the most statistically fantastic events in UK weather history.

For that latter reason alone I doubt we'll have a 2H as warm as that this year. If we do then it will be just the latest sharp (and this one a very very sharp) dig in the ribs to sit up and take note of the changes afoot.

The histogram below shos how much of an outlier even the h2 result was c.f. all that has gone before, and the even if - as is shown - we factor in the current warmth of the modern climate, such excessive warmth over a sustained period is not a likely outcome.

FOOTNOTE

Interestingly, numbers 2,3, and 4 in the list of warm autumns themselves occurred in a series 1729-31.

[Calrissian]

Hmm, so because last year had a remarkable series of warm months, we are to assume this year will be less?

There is no login in that kind of thinking. It is not about probability (although it would be if climate was static), but things are changing rapidly, so looking back in time for comparison is almost pointless.

The temp averages are endlessly increasing, and why many are still clawing at 'ohh, we can't another warm year again' makes no sense.

April will be a record breaker, there is no doubt of it. 10c is almost certain, and if this weekend turns out to be less cool than many believe, then 11+ is not out of the realms of high chance.

---

I can tell you now that a CET of 11.25 is a high likelihood for 2007, everything is pointing towards continued warmth, right up until the end of October. Hell, even this coming November and December will probably be 'mild'. As a few have noted around this board, you can probably already kiss winter 2007/8 goodbye. We ain't getting a winter - not the ones that you remember, for a very long time to come.

Calrissian: enjoying another warm evening in London city....in mid April :unsure:

[Stratos Ferric]

Hmm, so because last year had a remarkable series of warm months, we are to assume this year will be less?

There is no login in that kind of thinking. It is not about probability (although it would be if climate was static), but things are changing rapidly, so looking back in time for comparison is almost pointless.

The temp averages are endlessly increasing, and why many are still clawing at 'ohh, we can't another warm year again' makes no sense.

April will be a record breaker, there is no doubt of it. 10c is almost certain, and if this weekend turns out to be less cool than many believe, then 11+ is not out of the realms of high chance.

---

I can tell you now that a CET of 11.25 is a high likelihood for 2007, everything is pointing towards continued warmth, right up until the end of October. Hell, even this coming November and December will probably be 'mild'. As a few have noted around this board, you can probably already kiss winter 2007/8 goodbye. We ain't getting a winter - not the ones that you remember, for a very long time to come.

Calrissian: enjoying another warm evening in London city....in mid April :unsure:

Contrary to what you suggest C, the stats are, in fact, perfectly logical; interpreting them requires a judgement to be made regarding whether this last year has been a warm blip in a gentle rise (my suspicion), or, a sudden increase in the rate of change - hence my words to the effect that were the situation to repeat itself we really would have to take note.

I didn't say that it wouldn't happen, or couldn't, just that I doubted it. The return period for the autumn CET is probably about 1000 years when viewed against the CET data series, and assuming that that series is flat. It clearly isn't flat at present, but even so it would be remarkable indeed if we had another autumn as warm; warm yes, probably, but as warm, highly improbable. That would require a shift in that histogram something like 2.5C to the right so that the low 15s now sit in the middle of the pile: we're not close to that even in the current warm run: 1-1,5C is what we've tended towards for a few months now but to sustain such a sudden and huge increase without obvious reason apparent or emerging is unlikely to say the least. Even assuming a 1C uplift the odds on a repeat still look lower than 5%.

EDIT

The further logic, by the way, is that climate is a mid point between extremes. My old climate tutor at college, somebody who was genuinely eminent in the field in the UK and had made it a lifetime's study, once said to me in response to something I asked him regarding a run of weather we were having, "...well, you know what, I don't know when it will change, but it will, and when it does it will do the opposite". For weather to convert to climate reliably that HAS to be the case. Thus, for all that we are having a dry April, we cannot say that May will be dry or wet, but we do know that somewhere down the line we will have a run of very wet weather, just as, looking back, we can see similar cycles of dry and wet, warm and cold. We are changing at present, for sure, but not so dramatically that we have gone, in the click of a metaphorical finger, from cool temperate west coast climate to coastal Mediterranean climate. Hence, one CAN say that because we are having a sequence of something it will change, what we can never be sure of is the period of a particular event, but in that case statistics certainly helps us form a judgement of likelihood. We are approaching uncharted territory with the current run, and the longer we stay in it, the more likely it is that running aground is imminent.

Edited April 16, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Calrissian]

I understand all you say, and I'd be agreeing with you, were the year 1980. But we've come a long way since then. The trend is relentless. Sure, this summer may turn out to be a dull and cool one, but then next year would probably resume the trend again.

---

I've a theory in we will relatively soon, see the 'Jump'. The Jump will scare the hell out of many of the ignorant masses, but by then, it'll be way too late to reverse the trend.

Yes, the trend has been increasing gradually, but that level of restraint will break sooner or later. More on that another day though.

Calrissian: keeps meaning to write his essay on the 'Jump'

[Stratos Ferric]

I understand all you say, and I'd be agreeing with you, were the year 1980. But we've come a long way since then. The trend is relentless. Sure, this summer may turn out to be a dull and cool one, but then next year would probably resume the trend again.

---

I've a theory in we will relatively soon, see the 'Jump'. The Jump will scare the hell out of many of the ignorant masses, but by then, it'll be way too late to reverse the trend.

Yes, the trend has been increasing gradually, but that level of restraint will break sooner or later. More on that another day though.

Calrissian: keeps meaning to write his essay on the 'Jump'

It's a plausible viewpoint, and certainly one which those following these points will know I've alluded to since last autumn: when does a "blip" become a new baseline? Despite all that I said above abot correction sooner or later, there is an alternative view that might be argued which is that the longer we go on with the current plateau, the less likely it becomes that we'll ever move back. We're certainly drifting into the "interesting" zone now, and also to repeat myself, I stil can't see where any cold weather is coming from.

[Gray-Wolf]

They're mid way through checking air quality above the pole as we exchange posts and early indications are that it's the cleanest airs they have recorded as well as for european cities (which they also checked/calibrated over).

I seem to recall 3 days of no air traffic over the U.S. led to a 1*c temp rise across the states.

What if the 'cleaning up of our acts' (developed world) and the lack of major eruption events is giving us a glimpse of where global environment should be temperature wise?

4 weeks and the results of the survey will be complete and I bet it makes headlines (but 'climate' is always front page these days)

If this is a positive result (with less particulate polution than ever measured before) then even if we were to get a '71-2000, average summer' the increase in the potential of the Sun (due to lack of pollutants 'Re-actolite -rapide'ing' the suns 'brightness/strength') to warm (and be retained by the 'extra CO2' when re-emitted) better than in the '71-2000' period was ever able to would only ever suggest a warmer average to warmer as to the eventual outcome (by sheer 'power' of the primary engine, the sun....appears quite logical to me) this summer.

The reduction of condensation nuclii (in the form of hygroscopic pollutant 'dusts') has it's input as well (should the N.Hemisphere's atmosphere be less polluted with particulate pollutants) on the outcome of summer. U.S/Canada ever greener, we are down wind (plenty of time for a 'butterflies wing' to form a depression around the condensation partical 'smog' off the U.S. eh?) and reduce the amounts of N.W. Europes cloud/rain?

Anyhow, I digress. I fully support Calrissian's concerns

There are other 'positive feedbacks' into the 'temperature loop' that are much better defined now than in the '71-2000' period (dark water, permafrost, SST Anoms etc.) and so would also 'add in' rather than a 'balence out' on any global temp forcasts (IMHO).

Edited April 16, 2007 by Gray-Wolf