Getting the message across

[parmenides3]

G-W: that a collapse of the WAIS is possible is not in dispute (by me, anyway). But you are working on a 'hunch' as far as the timings go, aren't you? The most extreme scenario I can find in the literature doesn't suggest an imminent collapse, neither do the climate models. If there is supporting evidence for this 'hunch', I haven't found it - yet. I think it is very unlikely that, given the amount of observation and analysis of the WAIS going on, nobody would have noticed that it's about to fall apart. Having said all that, I'm not too keen on it collapsing at all - even 50-100-200 years down the line. That would be a very bad thing for all of us.

:)P

[Devonian]

The question I ask myself on this is “Will this harm me, or my children, or my childrens’ children; and if so, to what extent and when”?

So, in the case of a one degree rise in global temperatures over the past thousand years I tend to feel that no harm has been done, and even if global temperatures rise by a further two or three degrees over the next hundred years none of my objects of concern will be harmed to any appreciable extent.

In the case of the Antarctic ice sheets, this is not the first time they have come and gone and I don’t think that the estimated fifty-year timescale to complete disappearance is even close to being proven. It seems to me just as likely that the situation that existed fifty years ago will be reinstated in fifty years from now. But even if Antarctica becomes completely ice free, and sea levels rise by twenty metres, there is no reason for me to believe that my family (I’ll be well dead by then) as First World, upland living, educated and intelligent Scots that they are (/ will be) would face imminent harm.

I don’t deny that things may be different in the short to medium term weather wise, but I don’t feel that leads inexorably to climatic melt down.

I do know that there is a small chance that I will be the subject of a fatal accident tomorrow, yet I carry on regardless, happy and contented. If I knew that I would definitely die tomorrow I would probably feel less chipper – but that’s not the case, and I honestly think that acting as if it were is completely counter productive. And the same with climate change.

So, on that basis we could burn all the art in the world becuase it wont 'harm' your descendants, only reduce the chance they'll see something and be inspired? We could catch every last cod, I doubt very much there would be direct harm to you family, something could be used with chips?

No, for me it's not about the loss we as individuals might suffer, it's about this blue planet as a whole. It's about the fact we as a species have control of it and we ought, becuase we're not children, to be able to look after it.

The question I ask is 'When I die will I leave a planet in at least as good a shape as it was when I was born' I think the answer, sadly, is most certainly not, climate change being part of the problem. But, my aim would for me to be able to answer 'yes'.

[HighPressure]

Surely its just good old fashion common sense to treat out planet with respect, reduce emissions and look at sensible policies to enhance that. We should be looking at alternatives where possible, but we should not be expecting to reverse or stop climate change therefore adaptation to a warmer world has to be on the agenda. It is not a case of one argument or the other rules here, its a case of being tidy non polluting inhabitants of the earth. As a fence sitter in the debate I simply say that I cannot discount the theory that man is effecting GW, I cannot prove it either but I reckon risk management says we must accept that as a real possibility and act accordingly!

[Gray-Wolf]

G-W: that a collapse of the WAIS is possible is not in dispute (by me, anyway). But you are working on a 'hunch' as far as the timings go, aren't you? The most extreme scenario I can find in the literature doesn't suggest an imminent collapse, neither do the climate models. If there is supporting evidence for this 'hunch', I haven't found it - yet. I think it is very unlikely that, given the amount of observation and analysis of the WAIS going on, nobody would have noticed that it's about to fall apart. Having said all that, I'm not too keen on it collapsing at all - even 50-100-200 years down the line. That would be a very bad thing for all of us.

:)P

See 'mechanical erosion of ice sheets' thread for reply,

[Thundery wintry showers]

So, on that basis we could burn all the art in the world becuase it wont 'harm' your descendants, only reduce the chance they'll see something and be inspired? We could catch every last cod, I doubt very much there would be direct harm to you family, something could be used with chips?

No, for me it's not about the loss we as individuals might suffer, it's about this blue planet as a whole. It's about the fact we as a species have control of it and we ought, becuase we're not children, to be able to look after it.

The question I ask is 'When I die will I leave a planet in at least as good a shape as it was when I was born' I think the answer, sadly, is most certainly not, climate change being part of the problem. But, my aim would for me to be able to answer 'yes'.

A pretty good set of points IMO- it's very important to think of the wider implications associated with risk assessments.

[Iceberg]

Just to say thanks for your help, the presentation went very well, (44 slides and nearly 30mb in size).

I've even been asked to present it at other locations (London, Manchester), the feedback from the people that came to it was also very encouraging, most people seem to be more aware, have greater acceptance and more will to do something than 5 years ago, where a similar presentation would have been laughed at as alarmist and complete boll**ks

[parmenides3]

Well done Ice! Any tricky bits, or awkward questions?

:)P

[Iceberg]

Thanks P3 Not really, I had one about isostatic recovered due to the icemelt, but brushed it off as a small effect over 000's of years. Also one about how can melting icesheets can raise sea level's, I explained the artic wouldn't but the south pole's icesheets are a bit different.

TBH the presentation was only ment to last an hour, but due to my presentation over running I didn't really have time for many questions.

I also played a copy of AIT the day before and after to get people interested and aware.

Mildly pleased.....