Winter snow at last?

[Nordic Snowman]

It's been well documented about the poor winter to date. No need to go down that road!

Winter snowfall to date: 154cm (much less than normal)

Current depth: 17cm (testiment to the much higher than normal temperatures)

December mean: 0.1c (nearly 9c above normal making it the first Decmber ever to have a mean above freezing and smashing the old record by nearly 5c :o

A zonal flavour atm but snow is increasingly going to figure on our agenda I would imagine. Variable temperatures but in the main remaining below freeezing with the exception of this afternoon where we may get 1-3c tops. Skiing is good despite the terrible winter and we have had a permanent snow cover since the first big snow back in October. Considering this is as bad as it can possibly get, I should be happy. But frustration can bring you down.... you just have to look at various model discussion threads for that

Tonight may see the start of the action. Blizzards are on my forecast agenda with the potential for some damaging gusts in the early hours. Periods of snow and snow showers through the coming days (though dry on Thursday) and saturday is the day which poses the next threat of something substantial. It could all go wrong as this mobile set up is always borderline in that if the lows take slightly different paths, very different outcomes would arise. Part of the fun I guess.... but not when you become desperate as I have become

As always, more info and future photos etc can be obtained from my site, presuming it doesn't go t*ts up of course. And anything is possible this winter it would seem....

[johnholmes]

ggod to hear from you Mike, lucky you, not much chance of 17cm of snow anywhere in the UK in the foreseeable future apart from temporary accumulations in the cairngorms.

Not much better in the Alps either. i'm off on Sunday for my usual 2 weeks in Wengen. it looks as if the Lauberhorn will just go ahead but thereafter no sign of any snow, far too mild.

John

[snowsure]

ggod to hear from you Mike, lucky you, not much chance of 17cm of snow anywhere in the UK in the foreseeable future apart from temporary accumulations in the cairngorms.

Not much better in the Alps either. i'm off on Sunday for my usual 2 weeks in Wengen. it looks as if the Lauberhorn will just go ahead but thereafter no sign of any snow, far too mild.

John

50cm depth at Kleine Scheidegg at the moment John. All lifts look open. Any idea how much they had this time last year?

[hotflyer882]

How can any snow lover be desperate with 17cm of snow???

[johnholmes]

50cm depth at Kleine Scheidegg at the moment John. All lifts look open. Any idea how much they had this time last year?

about 80cm and it was around 10c colder. Just been looking at the GFS predicts as I went away, not far off 850mb temps and max temps in village hardly ever got about 3-4C. Been 5-10c recently.

runs to village described as wet, cannot remember when I last saw that at this time of the year.

Fortunately for the local economy, barring a major weather problem in the next 48-96 hours the Lauberhorn should go ahead.

John

50cm depth at Kleine Scheidegg at the moment John. All lifts look open. Any idea how much they had this time last year?

[john w]

Its extremely worrying for the ski resorts this time of year this time round. So many have suffered and unfortunately its often to the testament of the skiers and boarders.

As far as I know some of the pyrenees and spanish resorts have not seen snow since the start of December. I am sorry to say i think ill be lucky to egt on the slopes in Andorra this year and went there as its supposed to have reasonable snow in JAN Also I have never been there before.

If Wengen Grindalwald and also Muuren are not looking too hopefull. I am practically looking at a walking holiday.

Think apart from the 1st day of skiing back in 2000, this is the first ski holiday at this time of yearthat I am expecting it to be artificial or nothing for the whole week I am away.

[johnholmes]

IF the snow does get worse in the Wengen area and I do walk or at least not ski then it will be the first time in about 7-8 years, apart from once, that I have not been able to ski from the top of the Lauberhorn mountain down to the village all through the holiday.

There has only been one year in the 20 I've been going when there was almost no snow, cold enough, everywhere was icy, but very little snow below about 7000ft.

I'm making no statement about climat change or anything else what I've stated above is what has happened, give or take about 7-10 days, at the same time each year for around 20 years.

John

Edited January 9, 2007 by johnholmes

[Nordic Snowman]

Hi John.

Hope you have a nice time. I'm sure the snow will be okay but as you say, it has been a bad year for the whole of Europe.

Snowing here now and I have got my live cam switched on. The heaviest of the snow is letr in the early hours and beyond - it's only just getting going.

17cm is really crap. Last year we had over 100cm at this time. The year before we had over a metre and we had 80cm in 2004. Peak depths vary from year to year, usually around Mid March or late March with level depths between 100 and 200cm on average. But I have seen nearly 300cm of lying snow during my first year here in 1999/2000. 1200cm of snow fell during that winter. 2003 saw a peak depth of close to 220cm as well.

The bright side is that things can only get better...

Edited January 9, 2007 by Nordic Snowman

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think winter 1999/2000 was a good illustration of why the Norwegian glaciers had been advancing during the 1990s. It was a mild winter, but the mildness was accompanied by a lot of precipitation, meaning large amounts of snow high up (this was also the case in Scotland, where many low-lying areas didn't have much snow, but the ski resorts had a decent season)

There's differing degrees of mild though- certainly, the westerlies and south-westerlies of 1999/2000 were nowhere near as mild as those of this winter!

[Nordic Snowman]

I think winter 1999/2000 was a good illustration of why the Norwegian glaciers had been advancing during the 1990s. It was a mild winter, but the mildness was accompanied by a lot of precipitation, meaning large amounts of snow high up (this was also the case in Scotland, where many low-lying areas didn't have much snow, but the ski resorts had a decent season)

There's differing degrees of mild though- certainly, the westerlies and south-westerlies of 1999/2000 were nowhere near as mild as those of this winter!

Very true. 1999/2000 was great for snowfall.

And talking of snow, it is coming down very heavy now.

[john w]

I think over years to come...if the scandinavian countries want it...they could really market their skiing as the 'snowy alternative' to the alps.

With regard to your comment John, I did most my masters on snow cover photogrammetry on the peaks of much of the swiss and austrian alps and simonously tried to attrribute the change to global atmospherical chnage. Generally the results showed quite poor correlation with global CET temps and central european CET. It seemed to be better correlated to average wind direction and the overlying behaviour of the jet etc. I found it quite interesting but cant help but think that increased temperatures in some parts are going to have a influence on the positioning of the jet etc.

The atmosphere is so full of complicated feedback loops that I dont think anyone understands 100%. The relationship of the pressure and airmasses and weather to the upper winds is well understood...heck a lot of people on here know how to negotiate the charts...but im not so sure that people will completely understand what a temp raise in one part of the world....will entirely affect the rest.....maybe an interesting PHd topic...but that aint for me!

[johnholmes]

tks Mike

JW

Interesting comments there.

We know so little and yet so many expect so much due to the computer age.

One day perhaps.

I'm firmly of the belief that its our lack of understanding of the interplay between oceans and the atmosphere, along with any real knowledge of the depths of the oceans and how they interact which will prevent any marked increase in our ability to forecast accurately beyond 5-7 days.

Faster and bigger and better computers is not the complete answer in my view.

John

Edited January 10, 2007 by johnholmes

[Guest Viking141]

tks Mike

JW

Interesting comments there.

We know so little and yet so many expect so much due to the computer age.

One day perhaps.

I'm firmly of the belief that its our lack of understanding of the interplay between oceans and the atmosphere, along with any real knowledge of the depths of the oceans and how they interact which will prevent any marked increase in our ability to forecast accurately beyond 5-7 days.

Faster and bigger and better computers is not the complete answer in my view.

John

Excellent comments John. Spot on IMHO.

[The Penguin]

Faster and bigger and better computers is not the complete answer in my view.

John

Except to show more quickly how ignorant we are.

[john w]

I would agree John, the oceans are definately a big player. The temperature of 70% of the earths surface is undoubtebly going to have an effect on the remaining 30%. Ones only got to look at a strong enso year to see this in action.

Im quite impressed with the level of sensible comments over on these boards and Ill have to contribute more often!! Anywayback to the day job..........me tea breaks up

[johnholmes]

I would agree John, the oceans are definately a big player. The temperature of 70% of the earths surface is undoubtebly going to have an effect on the remaining 30%. Ones only got to look at a strong enso year to see this in action.

Im quite impressed with the level of sensible comments over on these boards and Ill have to contribute more often!! Anywayback to the day job..........me tea breaks up

and what is to day job John?

j

[john w]

and what is to day job John?

j

forecasting of course...... I didnt really know about these boards until another team member pointed them out. There are some real pros out on this site that you can have an out of work weather (and climate) related conversation with. Admitadly we get most our data from the Meto but I always keep an eye on the other charts as out [past t-164, I think any chart goes.......

its 3 days until I jet off for my skwalking holiday :S

[johnholmes]

so who do you forecast for, be interested to see, in a pm of course, just what charts my ex colleagues play around with ?

regards

John

[Martin R]

heavy snow

nordic snowman seems to be having a whiteout

Edited January 26, 2007 by baldie

[Nordic Snowman]

heavy snow

nordic snowman seems to be having a whiteout

Yes Baldie

Had 40cm of snow today and now over 104cm of level snow.

Much more snow to come in the days ahead.

I have one or two photos on TWO or on my forum atm but I will get round to posting some nice ones here - maybe tomorrow. It's been very busy today with snow clearing etc and my Mrs got stuck in drifts earlier. You can check the forecast on my site later tonight after I update it but I am preparing for potentially much more snow ahead.

Edited January 26, 2007 by Nordic Snowman

[Martin R]

Hello N.S

Thats a fare fall for one day Have bin watching your live streaming cam on and off during the day,see you out clearing the snow earlier 40cm's will keep you busy hope Mrs N.S ok after getting stuck.Great pic's as always mate KEEP THAT CAM ON

[Nordic Snowman]

Hello N.S

Thats a fare fall for one day Have bin watching your live streaming cam on and off during the day,see you out clearing the snow earlier 40cm's will keep you busy :lol: hope Mrs N.S ok after getting stuck.Great pic's as always mate KEEP THAT CAM ON

Cheers for that!

Just been out to take my weather observation and took a photo of my pathway which leads to our firewood shed ... that's all blocked up and needs urgent clearing in the morning.

Will be switching the cam off soon as there is not so much point during the night (besides, my pc needs a rest - major CPU usage today) but it will be on again tomorrow if the snow continues to fall.... and my internet holds out as it can be unreliable here at the best of times).

Goodnight dudes from arctic Norway!!

Edited January 26, 2007 by Nordic Snowman

[Nordic Snowman]

Some photos from around my house after the recent snow:-

The reason why I chose to show the car is because you can see the webcam and the 'hump' as it has been referred to beside the car. :lol:

...And the other side of the 'hump' is this:- (N.B The little tree thing is located in a metre deep trench. We have a channel with running melt water when the snow thaws and it takes a good 40cm snowfall just to fill that up and to get it on level pegging with the ground - which was achieved in late October)

One view of my weather station:-

And another view of the station:-

Enroute to the shed to get some firewood:-

And the shed itself:-

Garden view:-

Front Pathway looking out:-

Front Pathway in:-

Currently snowing lightly. Risk of heavier snow again tomorrow. Around -7.5c.

:lol:

Edited January 27, 2007 by Nordic Snowman