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Troughwatch


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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

As some sort of cold spell does appear to be happening now, I thought it might be useful to have a thread dedicated to an examination of how the details develop (as identified on UKMO) as next week approaches, in a kind of spin-off series from SF's SWFTWS threads.

Here's the first analysis, which happens to be my inaugral effort on powerpoint:

Troughwatch_v1.ppt

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

I got the fax images from that link, does that count?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Kinda like the storm watch thread but looking for features that could spell local snowfall? sounds good to me!

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Indeed they didn't Ian - was travelling up the West Coast Mainline on the 12noon from Birmingham NS home that fateful day, it started snowing in Wolverhampton and finished north of Crewe. Not even a hint on the main BBC1 22:30 forecast the evening before (who were more interested in heralding the arrival of milder two days on) ;)

28.11.05

post-1217-1169070474_thumb.jpg

Let's see what is predicted and what actually happens!

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

First update. New bit highlighted in turquoise.

Troughwatch_v2.ppt

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

h850t850eu.png

As that chart shows, the first falls of snow should arrive on sunday in association with the secondary low, though East Anglia and the south east may miss out as the low pulls out towards the south west and the winds turn northeasterly.

Due to the fact the front will only stick around for less than six hours or so in most locations as it moves south, expect around 5cm of snow maximum.

Could somebody tell me what humidity conditions are expected to occur as the front/trough moves south.

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich, Worcestershire
  • Location: Droitwich, Worcestershire

Thanks for doing these Enforcer, really helps me understand what the fax is showing! ;)

I look forward to the next installment!

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Next installment ready. New information in blue this time.

Troughwatch_v3.ppt

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

The three different scenarios for Sunday sum it up really - northerlies with embedded troughs are very very difficult to forecast at little more than T+36 (sometimes T+12 - see above) - so we'll draw a few lines on the charts to illustrate that there will be something going on, but it's really a guess!

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
The three different scenarios for Sunday sum it up really - northerlies with embedded troughs are very very difficult to forecast at little more than T+36 (sometimes T+12 - see above) - so we'll draw a few lines on the charts to illustrate that there will be something going on, but it's really a guess!

Completely agree with that good observation Shugs. Situations like these tend to be the occasions when it's most helpful to turn to the sat pics as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

I should have said that from the outset, my hypothesis is that the charts at range tend to show a plethora of 'features' almost countrywide, but as T+0 approaches there are fewer disturbances in the flow that are restricted largely to the coasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Well you couldn't have chosen a better way to test that hypothesis - any more updates? :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Yes. I've got four new charts to incorporate. Commencing work now.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

OK, I've done Sunday. New bits in green and magenta (most recent):

Troughwatch_v4.ppt

Will update Monday and introduce Tuesday a bit later.

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

And now Monday and Tuesday as promised. Newest bits in red.

Troughwatch_v5.ppt

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Anyone else having that problem? I've not password protected it. Neither am I an expert on the workings of MS Powerpoint.

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Posted
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
  • Location: Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France
Anyone else having that problem? I've not password protected it. Neither am I an expert on the workings of MS Powerpoint.

Fine by me

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Posted
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)

i just cant open it my pp not workin...... :lol:

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