Troughwatch

[The Enforcer]

As some sort of cold spell does appear to be happening now, I thought it might be useful to have a thread dedicated to an examination of how the details develop (as identified on UKMO) as next week approaches, in a kind of spin-off series from SF's SWFTWS threads.

Here's the first analysis, which happens to be my inaugral effort on powerpoint:

Troughwatch_v1.ppt

[Paul]

Sounds a good idea, but only if you absolutely promise that you'll use the nw fax and other charts from the datacentre:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...type=home;sess=

You know it makes sense

[The Enforcer]

I got the fax images from that link, does that count?

[Paul]

Yep, that'll do for me

[Gray-Wolf]

Kinda like the storm watch thread but looking for features that could spell local snowfall? sounds good to me!

[shuggee]

Indeed they didn't Ian - was travelling up the West Coast Mainline on the 12noon from Birmingham NS home that fateful day, it started snowing in Wolverhampton and finished north of Crewe. Not even a hint on the main BBC1 22:30 forecast the evening before (who were more interested in heralding the arrival of milder two days on)

28.11.05

Let's see what is predicted and what actually happens!

[Carl]

Good work.

Clear & concise.

Hopefully more of these to come!

Carl

[The Enforcer]

First update. New bit highlighted in turquoise.

Troughwatch_v2.ppt

[summer blizzard]

As that chart shows, the first falls of snow should arrive on sunday in association with the secondary low, though East Anglia and the south east may miss out as the low pulls out towards the south west and the winds turn northeasterly.

Due to the fact the front will only stick around for less than six hours or so in most locations as it moves south, expect around 5cm of snow maximum.

Could somebody tell me what humidity conditions are expected to occur as the front/trough moves south.

[Soma]

Thanks for doing these Enforcer, really helps me understand what the fax is showing!

I look forward to the next installment!

[The Enforcer]

Next installment ready. New information in blue this time.

Troughwatch_v3.ppt

[shuggee]

The three different scenarios for Sunday sum it up really - northerlies with embedded troughs are very very difficult to forecast at little more than T+36 (sometimes T+12 - see above) - so we'll draw a few lines on the charts to illustrate that there will be something going on, but it's really a guess!

[Stratos Ferric]

The three different scenarios for Sunday sum it up really - northerlies with embedded troughs are very very difficult to forecast at little more than T+36 (sometimes T+12 - see above) - so we'll draw a few lines on the charts to illustrate that there will be something going on, but it's really a guess!

Completely agree with that good observation Shugs. Situations like these tend to be the occasions when it's most helpful to turn to the sat pics as well.

[The Enforcer]

I should have said that from the outset, my hypothesis is that the charts at range tend to show a plethora of 'features' almost countrywide, but as T+0 approaches there are fewer disturbances in the flow that are restricted largely to the coasts.

[shuggee]

Well you couldn't have chosen a better way to test that hypothesis - any more updates? :lol:

[The Enforcer]

Yes. I've got four new charts to incorporate. Commencing work now.

[The Enforcer]

OK, I've done Sunday. New bits in green and magenta (most recent):

Troughwatch_v4.ppt

Will update Monday and introduce Tuesday a bit later.

[The Enforcer]

And now Monday and Tuesday as promised. Newest bits in red.

Troughwatch_v5.ppt

[Derbyshire_snow]

I tried downloading the file but it says i have to type a username and password in.

[The Enforcer]

Anyone else having that problem? I've not password protected it. Neither am I an expert on the workings of MS Powerpoint.

[garylaverick]

fine for me

[chapmanslade]

Anyone else having that problem? I've not password protected it. Neither am I an expert on the workings of MS Powerpoint.

Fine by me

[Rich_Clements]

yep worked for me also.

[Mandy Langlands]

i just cant open it my pp not workin...... :lol:

[kippure]

Perfect