Troughwatch

[The Enforcer]

For those that can't open the .pps files- would it be helpful if I posted the text from them?

[disco-barry]

Fine for me too, even a mac can read it!

[Bobby]

For those that can't open the .pps files- would it be helpful if I posted the text from them?

I can't read .pps files so that would be good yup.

[Lenticular]

Been reading good stuff :lol:

Been fiddling as normal, please find files as png's

could do PDF's if it helps

Edited January 18, 2007 by Lenticular

[Stoxs]

another way is download Open Office it seams to be able to open anything,it`s free and a lynux based prog i think

Open Office also opens the result sheets for Mr Holmses weather comp

[The Enforcer]

Glad someone's cracked an alternative method of display. Here's the latest updates for Monday and Tuesday in brown. I've included the version number on the title page from now on so if images get posted, it is obvious which version they are from.

Troughwatch_v6.ppt

[Lenticular]

More mucking about.

TE when you have done the PP file, in the file pull down you should see a save as option, in there you can chose a whole load of file formats.

And after all this it looks like we still wont get any snow.

[Stratos Ferric]

Good stuff E.

Not sure what this upcoming event is going to yield. You're right about the flow, but a couple of observations generally.

1 - the UKMO tend to indicate all sorts of plumes on their charts nowadays. JH and I have chatted about this in the past. A lot of them really amount to nothing in terms of weather features. Hence my comment about needing to combine with sat pics closer to the event.

2 - The North Sea is still very warm; given marginal thicknesses early next week (when I last checked - the position might have changed) I'm not convinced by one or two people's wilder projections for snowfall.

Sunday night-Monday still looks the best period to me. Thereafter I think pressure is too high, even if the air is as cold / colder. Certainly in the W descending air will squash pretty much all prospects. High ground (300m up) from Aberystwyth - Humber north looks most favoured, lower levels further north. Quantities; hard to call - it really depends how much development there is in the feature projected for Sunday night. The iron is that the more there is the warmer it might end up being, so maybe we'd better not hope for too much.

[dapick2002]

Good stuff E.

Not sure what this upcoming event is going to yield. You're right about the flow, but a couple of observations generally.

1 - the UKMO tend to indicate all sorts of plumes on their charts nowadays. JH and I have chatted about this in the past. A lot of them really amount to nothing in terms of weather features. Hence my comment about needing to combine with sat pics closer to the event.

2 - The North Sea is still very warm; given marginal thicknesses early next week (when I last checked - the position might have changed) I'm not convinced by one or two people's wilder projections for snowfall.

Sunday night-Monday still looks the best period to me. Thereafter I think pressure is too high, even if the air is as cold / colder. Certainly in the W descending air will squash pretty much all prospects. High ground (300m up) from Aberystwyth - Humber north looks most favoured, lower levels further north. Quantities; hard to call - it really depends how much development there is in the feature projected for Sunday night. The iron is that the more there is the warmer it might end up being, so maybe we'd better not hope for too much.

the met office also seem to be sticking to their guns on this one about sunday night into monday. so you could well be right!

[The Enforcer]

1 - the UKMO tend to indicate all sorts of plumes on their charts nowadays. JH and I have chatted about this in the past. A lot of them really amount to nothing in terms of weather features. Hence my comment about needing to combine with sat pics closer to the event.

2 - The North Sea is still very warm; given marginal thicknesses early next week (when I last checked - the position might have changed) I'm not convinced by one or two people's wilder projections for snowfall.

The iron is that the more there is the warmer it might end up being, so maybe we'd better not hope for too much.

1 - Yes agree. There is an assumption on N-W by a lot of its members that once we get a cold flow established like this that snowfall is likely in "many" areas. These charts appear to fuel this and I suspect this exercise will expose the folly, although it may not of course.

2 - 'Wintry mix' around the coastal counties and dry inland?

Final sentence - Absolutely. The ultimate catch 22 of the UK winter.

Edited January 19, 2007 by The Enforcer

[The Enforcer]

Update for Sunday in cyan/turquoise.

[The Enforcer]

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday now updated in green text.

Edited January 19, 2007 by The Enforcer

[summer blizzard]

I thought that an occlusion brought the same air behind as in front, not milder air.

[The Enforcer]

I thought that an occlusion brought the same air behind as in front, not milder air.

Yes. Perhaps, I didn't make this clear, but it doesn't have any bearing on what I think the outcome would be. It is my understanding that temperatures will have risen before the front arrives, meaning rain, apart from the Highlands.

[summer blizzard]

Having had a look at the charts for that timeframe, upper air temperatures remain unchanged, i can see no assertions for a lack of snow potential from the front other than thickness values, rather than the highlands i would say that snow is likely above 100 meters.

[The PIT]

I thought that an occlusion brought the same air behind as in front, not milder air.

Nope they are warm and cold occlusions. Although they rarely get labeled up as such.

[Thundersquall]

Potentially a big development on the 12Z UKMO Chart Viewer for T+120 Hours (Wednesday 24th January 2007).

More of a NE'ly and importantly (perhaps vitally for a potential prolonging of the predicted cold spell)

that LP has re-appeared over the North Sea just north of the Netherlands.

There will probably be some more troughs appearing over the next few days as details are refined.

High Pressure ridging eastwards towards Scandinavia. Possible development of a small Scandi High I wonder?

Edited January 19, 2007 by Thundersquall

[Thundersquall]

Latest T+72 Hours appears to show a new trough moving SW towards East Anglia. Is that easterly now

a little stronger than indicated earlier?

[kold weather]

Yep GFS picks it up as well, though its a weak feature so it probably won't have much instablity with it and therefore probably only light-mod snow showers which probably won't accumulate much given the air ahead of it is only marignal, behind it we do get somewhat a stronger cold feed.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Do you think there could be a major cold spell from the UKMO on Tuesday as the trough to our north swings along the isobars????

:lol:

SM06

[Thundersquall]

Do you think there could be a major cold spell from the UKMO on Tuesday as the trough to our north swings along the isobars????

SM06

I'm afraid the T+84 chart showing 12Z Monday 22nd January isn't the latest chart.

There is a chart at T+72 for the same time, which shows this as an occluded front.

[The Enforcer]

All of which have now been incorporated into the latest edition of troughwatch, with most recent entries in magenta:

[thunderstrike]

I love your way of doing things fella , and coming from me thats rare.. I SPEAK MY MIND! :lol:

[The Enforcer]

More charts covered for Tuesday and Wednesday in magenta. Wednesday's T+120 is a classic example of when snow becomes 'no'.

[The Enforcer]

Updates for Sun, Mon, Tues, Wed and first chart for Thurs: