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February CET


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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    Hope the various semi-official guardians of the CET competitions won't mind me doing this, but it's high time we got the February CET guess under way. And what better timing than as some people wake up to a light covering of snow this morning?!

    It's cold at the moment: will this influence you?

    Where will the current high go? South to give us mild? Or over us to give us inversion cold? Or retrogression to give us something more serious?

    Or will we have 3 winter months above 6C for the very first time? (Assuming January stays above it!)

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    I'm going to do something I don't normally do and post my CET forecast a week early just to get the ball rolling.

    My February CET punt is 5.4C

    At this stage I think the first two weeks will be on the cold side, followed by a milder second half (but I may change my mind!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

    I'm going for a much lower than expected february CET, it's simply been mild for to long. Old mother nature is gonna bite back hard! :rolleyes:

    I'm currently typing this with 5-6cms of fresh snowfall outside, quite unusual for these parts, we normally miss the snows every time. They either go east or to the west of here, normally by only 50-60miles or so. :lol:

    I think we are going to see the high in the atlantic causing the current block to move closer towards greenland, at the same time i got this suspision we'll see a nice big old scandi high pressure building towards the end of the first week in feb 2007. This will lead to T.E.I.T.S beast from the east arriving with vengeance, and also fall into line with roberts unprecidented weather event on the 10th february '07. :whistling:

    If my gut feeling is right, we'll be measuring snowfall in feet this time not cms, or inches. :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL

    Sorry about that, forgot to post my CET prediction. lol :whistling:

    I'm going for this february's to be CET: 3.6

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyne & Wear
  • Location: Tyne & Wear

    Very interesting cevelopments begining to happen. Unstable conditions look soon to develop where i feel anything could happen. Although my monthly forecast isnt avliable until January 31st, i will release my usual early punt without analysis of the models.

    My C.E.t 4.3 degress

    :)

    SNOW-MAN2006

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    Despite rumours that February could be the coldest for 21 years, I'm going for 4.9

    The last time February had

    ..had a CET >7

    1998 7.3

    ..had a CET <4

    2006 3.7

    ..had a CET <3

    1996 2.5

    ..had a CET <2

    1991 1.5

    ..had a CET <0

    1986 -1.1

    ..was the coldest month of the winter

    2005-06 Dec 4.4 Jan 4.3 Feb 3.7

    ..was the warmest month of the winter

    2003-04 Dec 4.8 Jan 5.2 Feb 5.4

    ..was warmer than March

    1995 Feb 6.5 Mar 5.6

    ..was warmer than April

    1903 Feb 7.1 Apr 6.4

    ..was warmer than the following November

    1998 Feb 7.3 Nov 6.2

    ..was warmer than the previous November

    1996 Nov 5.9 Feb 6.7

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
    Despite rumours that February could be the coldest for 21 years, I'm going for 4.9

    The last time February had

    ..had a CET >7

    1998 7.3

    ..had a CET <4

    2006 3.7

    ..had a CET <3

    1996 2.5

    ..had a CET <2

    1991 1.5

    ..had a CET <0

    1986 -1.1

    ..was the coldest month of the winter

    2005-06 Dec 4.4 Jan 4.3 Feb 3.7

    ..was the warmest month of the winter

    2003-04 Dec 4.8 Jan 5.2 Feb 5.4

    ..was warmer than March

    1995 Feb 6.5 Mar 5.6

    ..was warmer than April

    1903 Feb 7.1 Apr 6.4

    ..was warmer than the following November

    1998 Feb 7.3 Nov 6.2

    ..was warmer than the previous November

    1996 Nov 5.9 Feb 6.7

    Thanks, Mr. Data. As ever, illuminating and informative.

    I'm going to go for 0.0

    That way, no matter how bad people feel about themselves when they get it wrong, they can always say to themselves, " at least I wasn't as wrong as that daft Brummie!!!" If I'm right, I'll be happy with a return to the winters of my childhood. ('63 comes to mind here). I can't lose - it's a bit like Pascal's bet!! :)

    Happy punting everyone.

    Best wishes,

    Mike.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl
  • Location: Kemnay, Aberdeenshire AB51 - 135m/440ft asl

    I'll have a pop at 4.1

    thx

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    Posted
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border

    I'll have a stab at 4.9c.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    mmmm I'll go for 4.4C

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I may change this when i update my three month teleconnection forecast later this week but right snow my prediction is...

    Oh, the average for February is 4.2C, the same as January.

    The coldest February on record is February 1947 with a CET of -1.9C, which is 6.1C below average.

    The warmest February on record is February 1869, with a CET of 7.5C, which is 3.3C above average.

    Tell that to the global warmists...

    My prediction for the February CET at this moment is 2.7C, 1.5C below average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    The warmest February on record is February 1869, with a CET of 7.5C, which is 3.3C above average.

    The warmest February is 1779 with 7.9 :rolleyes:

    Februarys that were much cooler than the January

    1994 5.3 3.2

    1986 3.6 -1.1

    1983 6.7 1.7

    1975 6.8 4.4

    1969 5.5 1.0

    1968 4.4 1.9

    1956 3.6 -0.2

    1947 2.2 -1.9

    1944 5.8 3.5

    1932 6.3 2.9

    1930 5.6 2.5

    1921 7.3 4.8

    1916 7.5 3.8

    1906 5.3 3.1

    1902 4.7 1.5

    1890 5.7 3.1

    1875 6.4 2.3

    1873 5.2 1.8

    1855 2.4 -1.7

    1853 5.1 0.6

    1845 3.2 0.9

    1844 3.8 1.6

    1843 4.0 1.9

    1804 5.8 2.9

    1796 7.3 4.7

    1785 3.4 0.4

    1782 5.2 1.9

    1765 4.8 0.4

    1751 4.0 1.5

    1736 6.4 3.1

    1711 5.0 2.0

    1682 6.0 2.0

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It appears that you are indeed right Mr Data, must of let that one pass by, though it only seves to emphasise my point about the coldest February on record occuring over 200 years after the warmest, even in a time of global warming.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    I`m going with my original stab of 2.8c going by the last 2 years it`ll make more of a tumble and I hope it comes close as the end of last feb was a corker :rolleyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Winston: 0C

    Paul Tall: 1.7C

    Mountain Shadow: 2C

    Summer Blizzard: 2.7C

    Snowyowl9: 2.8C

    Snowjoke: 3.6C

    Rollo: 3.6C

    Snooz: 4.1C

    Great Plum: 4.2C

    Snowman2006: 4.3C

    James M: 4.4C

    Mr Data: 4.9C

    Cymru: 4.9C

    West Is Best: 5.4C

    Beng: 6.1C

    JJB Macabe: 6.2C

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I shall be going for an average month, just ever so slightly below average.

    Above average first two weeks, below average last two weeks.

    4.1C

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