February CET

[Bartlett Low]

3.9

[SP1986]

6.1

[summer blizzard]

I have now updated my teleconnection forecast, and am changing my February CET prediction from 2.7C to 4.7C, which is 0.5C above average.

[PersianPaladin]

5.1

[Gavin P]

Well, obviously my January CET prediction of 1.8 is looking hoplessly foolish.

However, that said, synoptically I still think things are on course. The pattern change to colder type weather has now occured, and as with the last few winters, once it happens, you would have to think there will be more up to sometime in March, anyway. So, given how high the CET's of December and January will be, coupled with an increased risk and frequency of cold snaps/spells, February should be comfortably the coldest month of the winter. Now how cold will it be? I would say it'll be on a par with last Feb. So my CET prediction is;

3.7.

However, I would point out that should winds go around to the east early or mid month, then theres the risk of a very significant cold spell, IMO

Edited January 24, 2007 by Gavin P

[Paul]

Here's something to consider - this is based on the CFS, which has performed pretty well in terms of CET so far this winter (we have a feature running internally for testing on this at the moment). We keep an average of it's forecast figures from every day - which provides a pretty good forecast but feb is proving to be a real see-saw of a month for it to forecast. So far in Jan, it's max cet prediction is 10.52, it's min, a knee knockingly cold 0.22 - uncertaintly abounds I would say!!!

[Gavin P]

Thats very interesting Paul. I would suppose that synoptically its going for a lot of blocking/high pressure? As we know, a blocked Feb can give us anything from February 1998 to February 1986. Hence the wide temperature variation?

[Paul]

Must admit I haven't had the chance to follow it that closely of that, but yes I imagine it would be for the reasons you give. Today's update is one of its milder forecasts, with some high pressure to our south, but still a pretty lively jet and low pressure for the UK...

[Don]

I'm going to go for a CET of 4 for February. That's if this winter follows the recent trend.

[Weather-history]

Kev, the difference between the Jan and Feb 94 figure is only 2.1 - not trying to make a even larger teapot point are you ?

No I wasn't, I posted those Januarys who were followed by a February that had a CET who was at least 2C lower than the January value.

If I was making a "even larger teapot" point I would have included January and February 2005, thats a 1.7C difference or maybe Jan and Feb 1996, that was a 1.8C difference, or Jan and Feb 1993, that was a 1.3C difference or Jan and Feb 1991, thats a 1.8C difference.

[summer blizzard]

AlexL: -1.1C

Winston: 0C

Paul Tall: 1.7C

Weather Wonder: 1.7C

The Eye In The Sky: 1.9C

Mountain Shadow: 2C

Pottyprof: 2.1C

Rusty Nailer: 2.2C

Simon: 2.4C

Helly Hanson: 2.4C

Snowyowl9: 2.8C

Convesction: 2.8C

Kippure: 3.3C

Fishdude: 3.5C

Snowjoke: 3.6C

Rollo: 3.6C

Gavin P: 3.7C

Bartlett Low: 3.9C

Krasnoyarsk: 4C

Shuggee: 4C

Don: 4C

Snooz: 4.1C

SteveB: 4.1C

Great Plum: 4.2C

Snowmaiden: 4.2C

Snowman2006: 4.3C

James M: 4.4C

Vizzy2004: 4.4C

Summer Blizzard: 4.7C

Mr Data: 4.9C

Cymru: 4.9C

Mezzacyclone: 5C

Robbie: 5C

Bessy: 5.1C

Persian Paladin: 5.1C

Bottesford: 5.2C

Atlantic Flamethrower: 5.3C

West Is Best: 5.4C

Anti Mild: 5.4C

Cheeky Monkey: 5.5C

Sundog: 5.6C

Acbrixton: 5.7C

Beng: 6.1C

Stephen Prudence: 6.1C

[Optimus Prime]

SB you forgot my 7.15c.

[Duncan McAlister]

SB you forgot my 7.15c.

For my first prediction and first post, I'm going to plumb for 5.7c, continuing the recent trend of mild months at 1.5c above the 1971-00 average.

[Rich_Clements]

Not being an expert but i would predict above average.

[Yeti]

4.6c

A mostly mild month but a colder spell around the 10th to 15th.

[Upgrade]

4.6c

A mostly mild month but a colder spell around the 10th to 15th.

4.5 deg

[VillagePlank]

Talking of Gerry and his Giraffes I'm going to stick my neck out and go for a flat 4C

[Wynn D Woo]

I feel that the mild overall theme will continue, with a couple of chillier episodes in between so my punt is 5.1C.

[snowfluff]

I feel that the mild overall theme will continue, with a couple of chillier episodes in between so my punt is 5.1C.

3.8 Please.

[kold weather]

I'm going to hold off for a little while, I can see massive scope for a very cold spell setting in by the 7th-14th though there is too much uncertainty yet to have much faith however the atmopsheric warming that occured early Jan will probably lead to a more sustained northern blocking in the first 15 days of Feb and wit hthe El nino dead in the water I can see real scope for cold.

The problem may turn out to be how cold though because I wouldn't be suprised to see a mild, prehaps very mild pattern in after a average 7-10 days by the 25th which may raise the CET rather sharply, base don the AO turning very positive again and therefore the default pattern we saw in Decembe rprobably making something of a weakened comeback.

A tentative 2.9C but i will change it by the 30th because I don't feel comfortable with that sort of low guess right now!

[ukmoose]

An excessively mild winter indeed so far suggests the pattern will continue. However, having been forced in to making a very early punt for January and not doing terribly well, I'm just going to hold off for a few more days. Why? Because there is still a lot of uncertainty about where the high pressure cell is going to locate. Chances are the month will be dominated by more high pressure than low - it's just a question of where the HP will spend most of its time. If it stays to our south west it will feed in dry and quite mild air for the first half of Feb, maybe longer. If it shifts further north and/or settles over the top of us it may well be chilly with lower night time temperatures for a week or two. I think one of these two situations is most likely and as there are a few days of Jauary left, it might just be worth a late entry. I don't see a very cold or snowy February but it's a close call for mild or chilly. I'll wait a while....

Moose

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm going to hold off until the 30th or 31st when I start formulating the February forecast to go up on the site.

In the meantime, I have a feeling that we'll have a CET of 552C, making it the warmest calendar month since records began, and killing off most of the country's population. (Only kidding)

[Duane S.]

2.6 for me

[WBSH]

Maybe a little early, but my CET predicton for January looks to be quite close and I took a wild guess at that so I will do the same for this.

Sadly I expect another above average one, but lower than December and January, so my guess is 5.5c , I feel that my guess will be valid untill the last week of Feb, when I predict that maybe my "inflated" guess will fall flat on it's face!

[Stratos Ferric]

It appears that you are indeed right Mr Data, must of let that one pass by, though it only seves to emphasise my point about the coldest February on record occuring over 200 years after the warmest, even in a time of global warming.

And that proves what, precisely, SB?