February CET

[summer blizzard]

That warmer synoptic patterns at some times of year can lead to colder ones at othe times of years - negative feedback, though eventually, global warming will take over.

[Michael Winston]

As of 1:45 p.m. today, if the 54 punting members were GFS runs, then the predicted average CET for February would be 3.98C.*

I've really got to get out more!

Regards,

Mike.

* using very spurious mathematical methodology!!

Edited January 26, 2007 by Winston

[Anti-Mild]

Hmmmm, interesting!!

Lots of people going for low temps and ordinarily I would agree......BUT!!!!!

I have a feeling that we are going to miss out on a cold month but only just,with the proper cold ending up across the near continent where we get the outer edges of any siberian / arctic blast. Couple that with some above average conditions and I arrive at a tentative, and not yet official, punt of 5.4c

Mind, that's not my official forecast, I'll put that off until next week!

AM

I've had a couple of days to think about it and I'm not going to deviate from my initial punt.

Therefore my official entry for February is 5.4c.

AM

[BristolBlizzard]

4.4

[chilly milly]

I'll go for 5.0C again.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

In conjunction with the release of my February forecast i have risen my CET prediction to 5.0 !

1st and 3rd thirds of the month will be mild with a cold-v.cold mid-month

See my blog for the full forecast

SM06

[tesaro]

Not a great lover of cold i must admit and have been quite lucky with the winter so far. But it looks like im out of luck this feb so im going for 1.75c. Trust me im not pleased about it.

[high ground birmingham]

I believe February's CET will be 3.9C, incidentally the same as February 2005.

I'm going for a mild few days at the start of the month with a very cold mid-month and a slightly milder than average finish:

[Guest Mike W]

I think 2007 should have all 12 above the 71-00 CET average. I think we should also have a record winter CET and seasonal.

Edited January 27, 2007 by Mike W

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm with Nick (WBSH) on this one...5.5oC for me.

Some colder snaps, perhaps similar to this week, but offset by a majority of average to above average temperatures, and one or two quite mild days too.

It will overall though, feel much more seaonsal compared to January.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

At the moment im going with a very mild start to February , The first ten days are looking quite interesting at the moment also, we could be seeing temps into low double figures for at least the first 5days , then possibly the next 5 days [Just depends how the models run in the next few days ]

850 charts currently showing temps between 0c and -2c which suggests the above temps

I would like to see a very cold February , but im not seeing this on any of the models at presant and this is promting me to say that this could be the warmest February on record ,

I will put my punt in for february either tonight or definately sometime tomorrow

nigel

Edited January 27, 2007 by stormchaser1

[snowuse]

I'm going to hold off until the 30th or 31st when I start formulating the February forecast to go up on the site.

In the meantime, I have a feeling that we'll have a CET of 552C, making it the warmest calendar month since records began, and killing off most of the country's population. (Only kidding)

I'm going for 551.9C so if it's slightly cooler I beat the mighty TWS. Hurrah! 4.7C actually.

[stormchaser1]

I'm going to hold off until the 30th or 31st when I start formulating the February forecast to go up on the site.

In the meantime, I have a feeling that we'll have a CET of 552C, making it the warmest calendar month since records began, and killing off most of the country's population. (Only kidding)

Morning TWS

If the CET is going to be 552c im going to emigrate to Greenland or Iceland , it may be a toruch cooler there lol

nigel

[DAVID SNOW]

I'm with Nick (WBSH) on this one...5.5oC for me.

Some colder snaps, perhaps similar to this week, but offset by a majority of average to above average temperatures, and one or two quite mild days too.

It will overall though, feel much more seaonsal compared to January.

3.6........ ty.

[Lettucing Gutted]

If the dying cold snap was going to last into the first half of February followed by trademark early spring weather in the 2nd half - I would have given a 4c C.E.T for February 2007.

However January 2007 is now mild again and assuming this continues well into February I would have to punt at a 7.5c C.E.T for February 2007.

Edited January 27, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Vince]

im really going to put the cat amongst the pigeons here , and i aint been on the sauce either

its called the balancing act and years of experience

im going for a sub zero cet for feb of -0.8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[SMU]

I have to go with the Winter Forecast-

Which points me towards

3.2C

Steve M

[Mr Maunder]

I do expect this to be on the cooler side of things so I'll go for 3.9c.

MM

[summer blizzard]

AlexL: -1.1C

Vince: -0.8C

Winston: 0C

Paul Tall: 1.7C

Weather Wonder: 1.7C

Tesaro: 1.75C

The Eye In The Sky: 1.9C

Mountain Shadow: 2C

Pottyprof: 2.1C

Rusty Nailer: 2.2C

Simon: 2.4C

Helly Hanson: 2.4C

S4lancia: 2.6C

Snowyowl9: 2.8C

Convesction: 2.8C

Kold Weather: 2.9C

Steve Murr: 3.2C

Kippure: 3.3C

Fishdude: 3.5C

Snowjoke: 3.6C

Rollo: 3.6C

David Snow: 3.6C

Gavin P: 3.7C

Snowfluff: 3.8C

Bartlett Low: 3.9C

High Ground: 3.9C

Mr Maunder: 3.9C

Krasnoyarsk: 4C

Shuggee: 4C

Don: 4C

Village Plank: 4C

Snooz: 4.1C

SteveB: 4.1C

Great Plum: 4.2C

Snowmaiden: 4.2C

Snowman2006: 4.3C

James M: 4.4C

Vizzy2004: 4.4C

Bristol Blizzard: 4.4C

Jimmyay: 4.5C

Yeti: 4.6C

Summer Blizzard: 4.7C

Snowuse: 4.7C

Mr Data: 4.9C

Cymru: 4.9C

Mezzacyclone: 5C

Robbie: 5C

Chilly Milly: 5C

Snow-Man2006: 5C

Bessy: 5.1C

Persian Paladin: 5.1C

Windswept: 5.1C

Bottesford: 5.2C

Atlantic Flamethrower: 5.3C

West Is Best: 5.4C

Anti Mild: 5.4C

Cheeky Monkey: 5.5C

WBSH: 5.5C

ChrisL: 5.5C

Sundog: 5.6C

Acbrixton: 5.7C

Duncan McAlister: 5.7C

Beng: 6.1C

Stephen Prudence: 6.1C

Optimus Prime: 7.15C

Craig Evans: 7.5C

[reef]

I think its unlikely (even now) that all three winter months will be above 6°C. Im guessing its still going to be pretty mild though, hence Im going for 5.8°C.

Hopefully Ill be totally wrong and it'll be bone-chillingly cold, but I doubt it.

[Kentish Man]

My inkling is for an another mildish month but less mild than Dec or Jan with HP more in evidence around our shores and a few cold snaps. My prediction 4.8C (cf 1971-2000 Ave 4.2C)

Edited January 28, 2007 by Kentish Man

[fordy]

3.5C , just for fun

[mackerel sky]

Stick all those esimates into an Excel spreadsheet, do some stats.

Lets see what the average is, and the standard deviation. I reckon it will come out close to the long term CET...

It would be very funny if the average turns out to be the real deal. But then it would be interesting to see what the distribution of peoples estimates look like.

All right, if i'm bored, I might do it.

Okay.

[mackerel sky]

This is what that data looks like as a histogram, binned into 0.4C ranges. Couldn't be bothered to put it into GMT and make posh plots or get into more sophisticated stats, so crappy EXCEL will have to do. Chastise me if you want. Rough and ready and 4am in the morning.

So we are clearly a very pessimistic lot.

Most contributors opting for higher than the long term average or more.

Some crazy fools going for a below freezing CET... crazy fools.

I will take the crazy fools out for a pint and a bag of pork scratchings, then give them a jolly good shake, a cuddle and a kiss, and send them back to their respective care homes.

Edited January 28, 2007 by mackerel sky

[Optimus Prime]

Some people still seem to think we can manage a sub 0c CET let alone a below average month!