February CET

[mackerel sky]

Some people still seem to think we can manage a sub 0c CET let alone a below average month!

I've tucked those people up in bed, and reassured them everything will be okay. And increased their dosage.

[West is Best]

I'm going to do something I don't normally do and post my CET forecast a week early just to get the ball rolling.

My February CET punt is 5.4C

Apologies to SB and others, but I'm changing this. I think the Feb CET is heading into the 7's. This is a combination of lack of inversion from the high, so a mild not a cold start, and renewed Atlantic jet for mid-Feb onwards. We may see a couple of colder interludes, but this is going to be a mild, possibly very mild one I fear.

7.4C for me now.

[BARRY]

Apologies to SB and others, but I'm changing this. I think the Feb CET is heading into the 7's. This is a combination of lack of inversion from the high, so a mild not a cold start, and renewed Atlantic jet for mid-Feb onwards. We may see a couple of colder interludes, but this is going to be a mild, possibly very mild one I fear.

7.4C for me now.

west i think that down yer, you is proberly right at 7.4 but overall around 5.2c

Edited January 28, 2007 by BARRY

[Gray-Wolf]

Just can't believe in another warm month, I think a high pressure augmented 3.6c.

[Weather-history]

Apologies to SB and others, but I'm changing this. I think the Feb CET is heading into the 7's. This is a combination of lack of inversion from the high, so a mild not a cold start, and renewed Atlantic jet for mid-Feb onwards. We may see a couple of colder interludes, but this is going to be a mild, possibly very mild one I fear.

7.4C for me now.

Your estimation is inconsistent with your summation, IMO. You seem confident about a mild month and less so about how mild it will be and yet your predicted value is for the mildest February since 1869.

Going for 5.4 seemed a reasonable value to start with.

[summer blizzard]

AlexL: -1.1C

Vince: -0.8C

Winston: 0C

Paul Tall: 1.7C

Weather Wonder: 1.7C

Tesaro: 1.75C

The Eye In The Sky: 1.9C

Mountain Shadow: 2C

Pottyprof: 2.1C

Rusty Nailer: 2.2C

Simon: 2.4C

Helly Hanson: 2.4C

S4lancia: 2.6C

Snowyowl9: 2.8C

Convesction: 2.8C

Kold Weather: 2.9C

Steve Murr: 3.2C

Kippure: 3.3C

Fishdude: 3.5C

Fordy: 3.5C

Snowjoke: 3.6C

Rollo: 3.6C

David Snow: 3.6C

Gray Wolf: 3.6

Gavin P: 3.7C

Snowfluff: 3.8C

Bartlett Low: 3.9C

High Ground: 3.9C

Mr Maunder: 3.9C

Krasnoyarsk: 4C

Shuggee: 4C

Don: 4C

Village Plank: 4C

Snooz: 4.1C

SteveB: 4.1C

Great Plum: 4.2C

Snowmaiden: 4.2C

Snowman2006: 4.3C

James M: 4.4C

Vizzy2004: 4.4C

Bristol Blizzard: 4.4C

Jimmyay: 4.5C

Yeti: 4.6C

Summer Blizzard: 4.7C

Snowuse: 4.7C

Kentish Man: 4.8C

Mr Data: 4.9C

Cymru: 4.9C

Mezzacyclone: 5C

Robbie: 5C

Chilly Milly: 5C

Snow-Man2006: 5C

Bessy: 5.1C

Persian Paladin: 5.1C

Windswept: 5.1C

Bottesford: 5.2C

Atlantic Flamethrower: 5.3C

Anti Mild: 5.4C

Cheeky Monkey: 5.5C

WBSH: 5.5C

ChrisL: 5.5C

Sundog: 5.6C

Acbrixton: 5.7C

Duncan McAlister: 5.7C

Reef: 5.8C

Beng: 6.1C

Stephen Prudence: 6.1C

Optimus Prime: 7.15C

West Is Best: 7.4C

Craig Evans: 7.5C

[Optimus Prime]

WIB do you ever make up your mind?

There's a potential for something much colder next weekend, even something from the north east and so I'm not that confident with my prediction of 7.15c. But the way recent winters have gone, cold spells have been shadowed by the milder ones.

I don't think month with a CET plus of 7.0c have been without cold snaps?

[wellington boot]

I'm going for an ambitious 3.0. Tempted by 3.4, but Im going to set my sights for cold weather. couple of cold weeks to start, and perhaps another cold blast at the end of the month, with some milder stuff in between.

[stormchaser1]

evening everyone

At this moment in time im tempted to go for 7.5c ,but ive decided to go with a 6.8c ,/ very mild for the 2 weeks , then possibly things may cool down for the final week ,

nigel

[Mark H]

3.4 is my unscientific punt.

[The PIT]

err my punt of 6.8C is missing froim the list. I'll cry if you don't put it on.

[Stratos Ferric]

Just in case I don't get the chance before c.o.b. on Tuesday, my provisional punt is 6.2C. Still mild, but not as extravagently mild as recent months.

[Snowly does it]

Just in case I don't get the chance before c.o.b. on Tuesday, my provisional punt is 6.2C. Still mild, but not as extravagently mild as recent months.

2c above average, more than December or November, so pretty extaravgant

Might be though!

[PersianPaladin]

Apologies to SB and others, but I'm changing this. I think the Feb CET is heading into the 7's. This is a combination of lack of inversion from the high, so a mild not a cold start, and renewed Atlantic jet for mid-Feb onwards. We may see a couple of colder interludes, but this is going to be a mild, possibly very mild one I fear.

7.4C for me now.

Have you been drinking?

[Polar Continental]

Cor blimey some of you are going for negative figures this time, that would take the mother of cold spells to get to those levels, I will go for 3.2c, just one degree below average.

Paul

[West is Best]

Have you been drinking?

Scoff not! All who have done so this winter at mild predictions have had to eat humble pie.

Mild February coming up imo, distinctly so from mid-month.

[PersianPaladin]

Scoff not! All who have done so this winter at mild predictions have had to eat humble pie.

Mild February coming up imo, distinctly so from mid-month.

Are you preparing to bet on it WIB?

[West is Best]

Are you preparing to bet on it WIB?

Is one's reputation not a high enough stake PP?!

[VillagePlank]

Still think there's cold to come at the end of February/beg March, but it won't be enough to stop Feb posting an above CET of 5.3

So, if I've got in on time, can the MC of CET guesswork please modify my guess. (which is a full 1C above my computed rolling 30 year average of 4.28 for this year)

Edited January 29, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Scorcher]

I don't think it will be a cold month but I have a feeling it will be more settled overall than January and therefore clear skies could lead to lower night time minima. I'm thinking there may a cold spell mid month and then becoming milder again towards the end of the month. I'll go for 5.4C.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blocking started later than expected by 2 weeks and doesn't seem to be playing ball inasmuch that the HP is going to move north but the longevity isn't as robust as anticipated. I will plump now for a slightly above average Feb of 4.6C.

BFTP

[JohnAcc]

5.8 for Me.

Rgds, John

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Another fairly mild one I'm afraid - 5.9C!

[Upgrade]

Another fairly mild one I'm afraid - 5.9C!

i see that Jan's average to date is 7.20 deg C or something ridiculous, despite last week's wintery temps to knock it a bit.

looking mild again as we go into feb, at the moment but loads of uncertainty and i get the feeling it will be more mixed next month, rather than SW zonal tropical stuff all the time, i think that little one has blown its puff out for now. however, i think we will see our share of mild, maybe a few half hearted northerly "blasts" but nothing too much . i think it could be cooler at night than we've been used to so far this winter ( but would be freaky if we continued with the weeks of 10deg + minimas) so overall i think still a mild 6.1 deg C

Edited January 29, 2007 by jimmyay

[The Calm before the Storm]

Well after the disappointment of last week where not even a single flake of snow fell on us here, I have the feeling that this winter is doomed. I just don't see the jet playing ball and as such any blocking will be irrelevant. I therefore predict a Feb CET of 6.2c. Another very mild month, enough for a record breaking winter?? I really hope I'm wrong and that we get a bone-chillingly cold feb but I just can't see it unfortunately.

TCBTS