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Has UK warming now gone up to Stage 3


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Generally speaking I am in agreement with Mondy (though not with such strong wording, perhaps! :D ), but just to comment on the quote he used from Don:

I have to confess it does bug me a bit when people (not a dig at you, Don!) say things like this. If it hadn't been for the cold spell of last week...? But the monthly CET is an average temperature, and an average is taken over a period of time, taking all peaks and troughs into account - the fact is that the cold spell of last week did happen and, as a result, this January is unlikely (just) to be a record-breaking month. It's kind of like saying "I would have won the lottery last night if all of my numbers had come up." If they didn't then it's fairly irrelevant.

:D

C-Bob

That's a fair enough comment about January C-Bob. The fact that we did have the cold spell last week did mean that a record breaking warm January simply wasn't to be. My point was really just to highlight how warm our weather has been on average over the last seven or eight months with it still continuing. I just hope we get a break from it in February and March!

Don

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Posted
  • Location: Hubberton up in the Pennines, 260m
  • Location: Hubberton up in the Pennines, 260m

What would happen if the CET plummeted btw, what are we supposed to blame then? us for trying to reverse it? oh the circles we travel in.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

I admit to still being a sceptic in all of this. There does appear to be warming but weather natural or not I don't know. What does concern me is that some people go on about the big oil firms & so on, lobbying against action, whilst forgetting that we now have something of an "industry" relying on AGW being correct.

There are a large number of scientists & others whose livelihoods & whole "raison d'etre" is AGW. Some of them seem to compete to produce ever more extreme scenarios aided & abetted it has to be said by our sensationalist media.

I find myself, after the latest report in the news saying "may, could, might". Actually it's rather like the model dicussion thread lookoing for snow :D

Dave

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Why are some - and only some people on here attributing climate change to natural cycles completely? Just a few points:

1) Warming is happening right now, and it will continue to happen.

2) Asserting the idea that it might freeze is similar to "it's going to snow next week because the greenland high is showing at 384 hours on the GFS.

3) Just because certain members like snow, and dont like mild it doesnt give them the right to ignore and destroy all the overwhelming evidence for a warming trend, based their on hopes and dreams.

4) It needs to be acted upon, sooner rather than later by governments etc, but probably wont until it's too late.

5) It is not the extremes that are showing global warming, it is the mean - even if you have the odd colder the average month so what? it means nothing, the mean will still keep rising!

Agreed that the media does have a sensationalist way of describing some of the things, but there is nothing sensationalist about the evidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Featherstone
  • Location: Featherstone

what evidence though?

show what you know so we can all see SP

i have it down to a 30 year cycle no proof of that but watch the uk have a hot summer abover the norm usa more hurricanes this year than 2005 and then a warm winter for the usa and a colder one for us next winter where will the proof be then?

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

To keep this on topic, rather than the usual suspects doing their sceptic thread hijack ramp, I think the problem with step changes is that you don't always notice them until some time after they happen. There was a clear synoptic change in the mid 1980s (TWS' Master thesis!) which with hindsight we can all now see (well apart from the aforementioned who will probably deny even that). At the time it was not so obvious as to what was happening.

I have some friends up the road at the Met O, and one in particularly working at the Hadley Centre. In private we have chatted about the gear-change issue. A lot of them do in fact think we are going through one, but will not say so publicly for the very good reason that unless you be absolutely certain to back it up the sceptic fringe will do their usual rant.

In my opinion it may well be that we should now be looking at the doomsday scenarios with increasing seriousness. I do think a step-change has occurred and that we are in deep, deep, trouble. The time for paying any attention whatsoever to the sceptic nutters has passed - for the sake of the planet, and our children who will inhabit it. The sceptics remind me of the peaceniks in the 1930's who failed to see what was coming. The warning bells were sounded at first by a few lone souls (like Churchill). Eventually the scales fell from everyone's eyes, and Chamberlain and the sceptics were banished to the laughing-stock of history. This threat is much more serious than that our forebears faced.*

(*And the the net fascists who now say any comparative reference to the events leading up to WWII is illegitimate - get a life, and get a brain.)

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

WIB, I think this is a very difficult thing for many people to accept and many people were happy to hear Chamberlain as he stepped off his plane from Berlin after all Churchill was just a war monger wasn't he? Same applies here, we know we shouldn't shoot the messenger but this is how we are as a society (ask Shilpa Shetty).

If by September we haven't seen enough from our sceptered isle to convince yet another swathe of the population that global warming isn't a jolly thing meaning lots more sunshine I would be very surprised.

I have ranted since the 80's about our global state and for much of that time I have been 'tolerated ' with good humour (but then I wasn't there when they spoke alone afterwards) so I am sadly feeling a little more 'content' to see my understanding made flesh. I have also had folk tell me that they now know I was right (but it didn't stop their rampant materialism over their 'disbelieving period did it?) .

I hope I am a little less perceptive about H5N1..............

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Location: Kent

I think anyone who denies that global warming is happening now has their head stuck firmly in the sand. It is obvious to any layman that it is warming up ... this year should prove very interesting - hotter than last year, more droughts - and it will become worse. If countries like China continue to pump out obnoxious gasses into the atmosphere, you can hardly be surprised when the Earth's climate as a whole changes. We are polluting this planet like no tomorrow, and no one will bother to take any real steps to address the situation until it is, of course, far too late.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think what people are not quite grasping is the time delay between increased carbon dioxide levels and resulting temp hike. If it were a season you would not be surprised at the environmental delay in temps so why folk can't grasp the same of CO2 I don't know.

The rises we are experiencing has little to do with the far eastern (recent) inputs but all to do with our own past inputs. The planet has done all she can to mitigate the warming but to no avail and now she has thrown in the towel hence the 'step change' in temp regimes we are undergoing.

By the time the far eastern input has full effect it'll already be to late and all you'll see are the current ,conservative estimates, of future rises being upped and upped (which has already begun) as science plays 'catchup' with the reality.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Location: Kent
I think what people are not quite grasping is the time delay between increased carbon dioxide levels and resulting temp hike. If it were a season you would not be surprised at the environmental delay in temps so why folk can't grasp the same of CO2 I don't know.

The rises we are experiencing has little to do with the far eastern (recent) inputs but all to do with our own past inputs. The planet has done all she can to mitigate the warming but to no avail and now she has thrown in the towel hence the 'step change' in temp regimes we are undergoing.

By the time the far eastern input has full effect it'll already be to late and all you'll see are the current ,conservative estimates, of future rises being upped and upped (which has already begun) as science plays 'catchup' with the reality.

Couldn't agree more.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
I think anyone who denies that global warming is happening now has their head stuck firmly in the sand. It is obvious to any layman that it is warming up ... this year should prove very interesting - hotter than last year, more droughts - and it will become worse. If countries like China continue to pump out obnoxious gasses into the atmosphere, you can hardly be surprised when the Earth's climate as a whole changes. We are polluting this planet like no tomorrow, and no one will bother to take any real steps to address the situation until it is, of course, far too late.

I so agree with you and Gray Wolf. If I get cross (as came through in my post) it's simply because the time for chattering about it has surely now passed. We have to ACT . We're due to have a baby later this year, and it makes me cry, quite literally, to think what we are doing to this planet that he or she will grow up on. We've got to do something ...

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
I so agree with you and Gray Wolf. If I get cross (as came through in my post) it's simply because the time for chattering about it has surely now passed. We have to ACT . We're due to have a baby later this year, and it makes me cry, quite literally, to think what we are doing to this planet that he or she will grow up on. We've got to do something ...

Maybe we should have a poll regaurding parents and their feelings on climate change and singles/childless and their take on things. When I was without responsibilities I was far more reckless in both my opinions and actions and I suspect that it is the same with the nay sayers.

The more people start to hedge their bets/accept G.W. the more 'responsible' citizens they are. They can see beyond their own lives and , more inmportantly, need conditions then to remain favourable to our way of life (for their childrens sake). The singles don't give a hoot in the same way (cause they'll just be dead without anything 'carrying on'.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Maybe we should have a poll regaurding parents and their feelings on climate change and singles/childless and their take on things. When I was without responsibilities I was far more reckless in both my opinions and actions and I suspect that it is the same with the nay sayers.

Great idea! Before I read this I just started one on low-energy light bulbs. Your idea is different and I really like it: go for it?

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Posted
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
  • Location: A small planet somewhere in the vicinity of Guildford, Surrey
Great idea! Before I read this I just started one on low-energy light bulbs. Your idea is different and I really like it: go for it?

While you're at it you could see who's religious and who's an atheist, but I think that might go down like a lead balloon. For the record, I have three children myself...

C-Bob

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
Maybe we should have a poll regaurding parents and their feelings on climate change and singles/childless and their take on things. When I was without responsibilities I was far more reckless in both my opinions and actions and I suspect that it is the same with the nay sayers.

The more people start to hedge their bets/accept G.W. the more 'responsible' citizens they are. They can see beyond their own lives and , more inmportantly, need conditions then to remain favourable to our way of life (for their childrens sake). The singles don't give a hoot in the same way (cause they'll just be dead without anything 'carrying on'.

A sweeping statement G-W, there are plenty of people with kids that drive 4x4's and other large engined cars, fly their kids to Disneyland in Florida, which to the Carbon is evil brigade must surely equate to attempted murder.

Similarly there are plenty of singles / childless couples that recycle, don't fly and only have one car (like my business partner) who have a lower carbon footprint.

I dont believe carbon is the sole or primary driver of global warming and the government is just using it as a means of taxing and controling the population. I have many more other concerns about the future for my kids not least how this country is turning into a fascist state.

That said waste is a problem - we only have a finite amount of land to bury it in landfill and oil/gas will run out so alternative fuels will be needed and it makes sense to use renewable energy so i'm in favour of increasing the use of these. Whether that will make any difference to global warming remains to be seen but better i think to encourage the exploiting of those through tax cuts/incentives than letting the media and the goverment scare monger and instill we are doomed messages. A point in note the BBC last night kept on refering to last year as the warmest on record, very cleverly omitting that was in reference to the UK but instead allowing people to think it ment globally.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

If but it were just a fiscal scam.

Come on now do you think any amount of tax hikes are, in any way, going to ameliorate our problems? They (politicians) may be 'bandwaggoning' on the subject (to seem more appealing to the electorate) but will any party scupper their chances at re-election to put in place unilateral measures that would have some real effect? No chance!

I know the prospect of economic/social disruption is unpleasant but it is what awaits us and (for your childrens sake if they are too weeny to look after themselves) you'd be wise to have a 'plan B' in case what we nutters preach comes to pass.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Location: Kent
Maybe we should have a poll regaurding parents and their feelings on climate change and singles/childless and their take on things. When I was without responsibilities I was far more reckless in both my opinions and actions and I suspect that it is the same with the nay sayers.

The more people start to hedge their bets/accept G.W. the more 'responsible' citizens they are. They can see beyond their own lives and , more inmportantly, need conditions then to remain favourable to our way of life (for their childrens sake). The singles don't give a hoot in the same way (cause they'll just be dead without anything 'carrying on'.

Well I don't have kids as I have never wanted them, and my next door neighbour is of the same ilk, but she is more Eco than me - I do care about our planet regardless of not having kids, so I think that statement was a bit too wide ranging GW - however, as I have said before, I totally agree with all you are saying and I do feel for the youths to come who will grow up in what will probably be quite a barren world if global warming continues to rise.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I have a strange philosophy and discount 80% of the population as 'not of my world'. Many are damaged /disadvantaged by nurture, some by nature but all are not easily recognisable to me as 'human beings' (as some aboriginal Americans would have it ) they're just people.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Oh, come on..., jeez, i'm getting more and more frustated with these discussions. I think i'll take a break.

This isn't a dig, but the phrase "We need to act now" irks me. What do we do? How do we do it? What's the point in acting when so-called world powers, ie USA and China, aren't exactly fretting.

It's the same situation with the light bulb thread. Of course you're allowed to do your bit, but again, what's the point when the big two above will surely just thwart any positive action?

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Oh, come on..., jeez, i'm getting more and more frustated with these discussions. I think i'll take a break.

This isn't a dig, but the phrase "We need to act now" irks me. What do we do? How do we do it? What's the point in acting when so-called world powers, ie USA and China, aren't exactly fretting.

It's the same situation with the light bulb thread. Of course you're allowed to do your bit, but again, what's the point when the big two above will surely just thwart any positive action?

I've said this on the other thread, if we ALL do nothing then surely it would make matters worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Merseyside
  • Location: Merseyside
Oh, come on..., jeez, i'm getting more and more frustated with these discussions. I think i'll take a break.

This isn't a dig, but the phrase "We need to act now" irks me. What do we do? How do we do it? What's the point in acting when so-called world powers, ie USA and China, aren't exactly fretting.

It's the same situation with the light bulb thread. Of course you're allowed to do your bit, but again, what's the point when the big two above will surely just thwart any positive action?

Because, if we've done our bit (whatever we may feel our bit should be!) then, when everything goes horribly wrong, we can all say, "Well, I did my bit, it wasn't my fault."

Of course, if nothing goes horribly wrong, we can claim all the credit for everything being fine and dandy.

:lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Location: Kent
I have a strange philosophy and discount 80% of the population as 'not of my world'. Many are damaged /disadvantaged by nurture, some by nature but all are not easily recognisable to me as 'human beings' (as some aboriginal Americans would have it ) they're just people.

A very peculiar view - however, I prefer the company of my pets to most humans also.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
A very peculiar view - however, I prefer the company of my pets to most humans also.

Orwell had it that 'the future belongs to the proles' and sadly I agree but for the proles straddling all sections/classes of society.

You cannot force either conscience or enlightenment on folk. It is like change, first they need to want to change and many folk, wrapped in their own sheepish social groups, choose to remain the same (see no need to change) as all around does the same.

Though a poor example the 'three witches of Elstree' found nothing awry with there attitudes/behaviours until made aware of how these 'behaviours' were recieved by others. So it is in society at large.

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL

I honestly despair when I read threads like this, on several counts.

First of all there's a few sceptics saying "show us your proof". This puts me in mind of the game I played when I was about two years old whereby I covered my eyes and believed that because I couldn't see my sister she couldn't see me. Many of the sceptics on here sit in information vacuums - it's not hard to go and see data - there are countless threads on N-W where I for one have posted charts and plots illustrating how dramatic the change in our temperature has been since the mid 80s (and it was warming before then). It would take 15 minutes searching the internet to find primary data. Those who squeal at the media should remember that the media can only tell a story that is fed to them (no smoke without fire), and that, if you don't believe what they're telling you, get off your lazy arses and go and find some data yourself. Sitting there saying "I don't believe it" has the argumentative substance of butter in an oven.

I am sure that there are also sceptics who simply want it to be cold. I'd love it to be cold, but wanting it to happen and making a judgement about what actually IS happening are two different things.

Then there are those who seem to take the position they do on the basis that this is all a tax raising scam and it's governmental control gone mad. To you I say go surf the net and look up Garret Hardin's "tragedy of the commons", and then go look up his "lifeboat theory".

Of course, I know that Mondy and co (sorry Mondy, you're not the worst, just the most repetitive of the above set) probably won't do any such thing, because you "just know" you're right.

What NONE OF YOU ever do is present a sigle shread of data, original thought, or evidential argument to back up your position. It's easy to say "yaa boo" from behind your cage, but let's not kid ourselves that it's clever.

Windswept's final point was a belter...a classic of it's genre. So, the BBC mis lead us last night...it's as if the UK had the warmest year on record and the rest of the world had it's coolest is it? Where did the world rate last year; 2nd, 3rd was it? How many of the five warmest years on record have been in the last ten years? How many?

Wake up the lot of you. By all means be sceptics, but if you're going to be sceptical at least make the effort to be an informed sceptic. I'll say one thing for Daniel, he may trawl some pretty crappy sites looking for evidence, but there's not one of you holds a light up to him for effort.

For the first time in my life I nderstand the emotions of my french teacher thirty years ago when he used to deride us as a "rabble".

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

Yes the BBC did deliberately mis lead, and should someone now go and check that fact they will see they were lying and so what other 'facts' have they lied about, thus encouraging the person to be dismissive of genuine information.That does not help the AGW arguements.

I did not infere that the globe had its coolest year so to suggest that i did is an outright lie.

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