Glimmer of hope model discussion

[Osbourne One-Nil]

This thread is for having a general discussion about the latest model output.

If you want to have an in depth, non-rampy discussion, visit here

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If you want to have a general chat about anything, visit here

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This thread is for looking at every single model run and every single model. This thread is for looking for the smallest glimmer of hope. This thread is for hopeless optimism. If that's not for you, then visit another thread.

Off topic posts will be removed.

[Just Below Zero]

The gefs control run is mega.

At least two major snowstorms followed later by the mother of all beasterlies :lol:

If only.

IS this enough hopeless optimism?

[Polar Continental]

I'd say if you're looking for snow then the gfs is the best this morning followed by the other two major models but I really wouldnt put too much faith in any models past 96hrs because of the surface scandi high which is already shown to be slightly stronger this morning, also the ecm builds pressure west towards scandi later on.

I agree in that the major models agree on a breakdown but its how this happens and what happens afterwards that looks set to turn into another drama.

Morning Nick,

Yes, I agree now we have agreement for a cold spell, the breakdown does indeed look uncertain at the moment, as you say the GFS looks the better, especially on Thursday, I’ll hedge my bets on the GFS, why? cos it looks great :lol: , seriously though, it does like more emotional roller coaster rides before we know the definite answer to the puzzle is solved :lol:

Paul

[Snowly does it]

OK, have taken a look at the 00z. I agree with Richard today in that the main problem would appear to be how quick the mild air comes in versus what sort of cold block can be hastily built to the East.

-5 plus air looks more attractive to the Eastern half on this run for the 'breakdown' scenario, and undoubtedly progging some intersting minima for the next few days....

Snow I think is best described right now as unlikely but possible for southern areas but attractive in possiblity for northern parts. You would really need to see how this pans out over the weekend. I think once such an 'event' comes within say T78 you can start pinning percentages on it, and the UKMO and ECM are of course far less bullish, so movement from 1 to 2 or 2 to 1 over the weekend expected.

Regardless of outcome, this sort of set-up brings two things - fascinating model watching which will test and tease and sort the wheat from the chaff and 'winter' conditions - cool, frosty and liable to Atlantic ruin!

There remains something for everyone to watch from whatever preferred standpoint on the GFS output, with cold, mild and storms all in the frame.

[nick sussex]

Morning Nick,

Yes, I agree now we have agreement for a cold spell, the breakdown does indeed look uncertain at the moment, as you say the GFS looks the better, especially on Thursday, I’ll hedge my bets on the GFS, why? cos it looks great :lol: , seriously though, it does like more emotional roller coaster rides before we know the definite answer to the puzzle is solved :lol:

Paul

Well in a week of chopping and changing it just has that feel of yet more drama, this is great if you're a model anorak but not so good if all you want too know is whether it will snow!

The best by far for snow is the gfs as it brings a shortwave in then leaves enough residual cold behind to deliver another possible snow event as the main low heads in from the atlantic. I know most people are just concentrating on the snow but I'm a little more interested in what happens afterwards, the way the breakdown happens is therefore important for our longer term prospects and this is why the ecm dangles a carrot at 144hrs and then again at 168hrs with pressure building westwards from russia towards scandanavia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

The question is will this lead to anything? the later charts push the lows in but in a week of model drama is there any more left?

[KTtom]

Hi Nick,

UKMO also trending towards the ECM with pressure rising to the NE.

Definately appears to be a growing trend of pressure to the NE. I bet there aren't too many who complain if the first one came off?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel3841.gif

KT

[smhouston]

Look at that for a drop in 850hpa temps...that's like a 16 degree drop in the space of 2 days!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Look at that for a drop in 850hpa temps...that's like a 16 degree drop in the space of 2 days!

quite an outlier on the operational run there

[West is Best]

Look at that for a drop in 850hpa temps...that's like a 16 degree drop in the space of 2 days!

It's also known as a whopping outlier - 'whopping' being probably an apt word. (Chris - snap!)

The ECM is very zonal, so not sure why the excitement there? There's no height rise to the NE. Instead there's a stonking jet pattern which blows away any hint of a proper Scandi high. The best thing is to enjoy whatever you get next week, because beyond that looks pretty grim for cold prospects at the moment.

[KTtom]

It's also known as a whopping outlier - 'whopping' being probably an apt word. (Chris - snap!)

The ECM is very zonal, so not sure why the excitement there? There's no height rise to the NE. Instead there's a stonking jet pattern which blows away any hint of a proper Scandi high. The best thing is to enjoy whatever you get next week, because beyond that looks pretty grim for cold prospects at the moment.

He was actually talking about the start of the run where there is full agreement.

Not sure how you say there are no heights to the NE unless I'm upside down.

KT

[SMU]

It's also known as a whopping outlier - 'whopping' being probably an apt word. (Chris - snap!)

The ECM is very zonal, so not sure why the excitement there? There's no height rise to the NE. Instead there's a stonking jet pattern which blows away any hint of a proper Scandi high. The best thing is to enjoy whatever you get next week, because beyond that looks pretty grim for cold prospects at the moment.

Morning All-

Heavy snow here in iceland this morning- 12c 850 HPA

Models look increasingly good for getting the surface feed off the continent-

The potential stilll remains firmly in play folks........

S :lol:

[Thundersquall]

The 00Z initial run shows what could be quite a major snow event for many places.

It shows even after the first frontal band has moved through, the temperatures don't really begin to rise

appreciably until next weekend. Appears to be a snow "double whammy".

First trough at T+132 Hours (temperatures generally only just above freezing):

Second trough at T+156 Hours (temperatures generally still only just above freezing):

[smhouston]

He was actually talking about the start of the run where there is full agreement.

Not sure how you say there are no heights to the NE unless I'm upside down.

KT

I most certainly was!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Hi,

Here is the latest GFS run of the Breakdown during friday

0600 hours

As we can see the east having quite a bit of AM snowfall with some very cold temperatures but already signs of rain in the west.

0900 hours

Some sleet (green) or snow (pink) for most areas ahead of the low pressure system rolling in.

1200 hours

Could potentially be a midday caous event with some wintriness for most areas...

1500 hours

[attach

ment=31452:Friday_15hrs_Temps.png]

We can really see that low pressure working its way in throughout the day and temperatures slowly increasing from the SW with some quite strong winds from that pressure chart in the West. First signs of rain to lower levels throughout the period.

1800 hours

Sleet for higher elevations but mostly rain at this point to lower levels as temperatures increase.

So something to watch definately there....

and here on the ECM there is signs of a tempary easterly as low pressure dips into Germany before we see our return to unsettled conditions...

I will also be releasing my interpretation of this cold spell on the winter discussion later for the week ahead so stay tuned to that or simply look at it on my blog :lol:

SNOW-MAN2006

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well in an hours time, we will know the fate of 6z. bearing in mind 6z has been good for next week spell for 3 days running. to make it 4 days would be some kind of record I would imagine.

[Frosty.]

Exciting week ahead IMO with a lovely sunny crisp weekend across the mainland, sparkling sunshine under High Pressure with frost setting in rapidly at dusk. A weak front edging south across northern scotland tomorrow with colder showery air tucking in behind bringing the first sprinkling of snow to the northern highlands on sunday night. As the High gets squeezed away south the Northerly winds will drive south bringing some welcome snow showers to eastern britain. Midweek sees a lull with slack pressure but a large dense pool of arctic air which from past memory sometimes proves ultra reluctant to shift. As depressions and fronts approach slowly the winds will become south easterly and strengthen, a potential major snow event could be the outcome between thursday and saturday next week.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

It's also known as a whopping outlier - 'whopping' being probably an apt word. (Chris - snap!)

The ECM is very zonal, so not sure why the excitement there? There's no height rise to the NE. Instead there's a stonking jet pattern which blows away any hint of a proper Scandi high. The best thing is to enjoy whatever you get next week, because beyond that looks pretty grim for cold prospects at the moment.

You mean in FI then ??? We have had 48 hours now of reasonable consistency on the GFS in terms of next week, with a cold HP followed by a possibly snowy initial breakdown, (and I think the other models agree in general on this pattern). So in other words we have a pretty strong probability of a proper winter week of weather coming up, and as such I don't see any point trying to dampen that possibility by banging on about how mild/zonal FI looks !

To be honest, whilst normally I respect your 'realism' posts, especially when everyone is getting excited by cold possibilities in FI but the immediate outlook is poor in terms of cold, but the situation now is in reverse, so I would really appreciate your views on how you see this coming week panning out, as opposed to (what appears to be) trying to dampen people's excitement for next week by reminding them it'll breakdown to warmer weather pretty quickly. We live in the UK, so I don't seriously think anyone is expecting two or three weeks of blizzards !!!!!!!

[mr snowman]

Looks as though im going to have an interesting journey upto the Scottish Highlands next Saturday then. :lol:

Any ideas on what will happen after that though

[nick sussex]

It's also known as a whopping outlier - 'whopping' being probably an apt word. (Chris - snap!)

The ECM is very zonal, so not sure why the excitement there? There's no height rise to the NE. Instead there's a stonking jet pattern which blows away any hint of a proper Scandi high. The best thing is to enjoy whatever you get next week, because beyond that looks pretty grim for cold prospects at the moment.

Morning Richard nice to see you're as optimistic as usual! :lol: The ecm might be zonal later but we've seen so many changes this week already, the surface scandi high which has now appeared and wasnt progged by any model only a few days ago, I'm not saying that we're going to be in a biting easterly I'm just highlighting that the models keep throwing in different variables. This relentless negativity by yourself no matter what the charts show is very perplexing, I know you like the snow as you are a skier, so what exactly is going on here?

Fair enough highlight the problems but for heavens sake take a realistic view of the overall model output, we're all aware that things do and often implode in the uk regarding winter synoptics, I've often shared a good laugh with you in here but I just find at the moment you're determined to bring everyone down.

The problem is Richard that you might not realize this but people are beginning to think that you just want any cold synoptics to implode so you can come in here and laud it over everyone, that isnt model watching thats just showing a meanness of spirit!

So please can we have the old Richard back who occasionally brought some humour and lightheartedness to the room rather than constant gloom.

[Globe]

As depressions and fronts approach slowly the winds will become south easterly and strengthen, a potential major snow event could be the outcome between thursday and saturday next week.

Over in Dubln, poor Globe listens to the rain beating off the windows and watches breaking news on the BBC showing major snowfall across the UK :lol:

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Looks as though im going to have an interesting journey upto the Scottish Highlands next Saturday then. :lol:

Any ideas on what will happen after that though

Well mr.snowman just have a look at your areas ensembles (below is for tyne and wear):

and as you can see there is a chance of -10 850ph to +9 850ph's so basically anything could happen but the mean ensemble run tells me temperatures hovering around the 7 degress mark....

SM06 :lol:

[Snowly does it]

Hi Paul/nick/snowmaiden

Very pleasing to see the model output this morning take another turn in our favour with the breakdown put back a bit further still and the high pressure development to the east as suggested possible previously being developed further by the models.

Morning Tamara,

If nothing else, it makes being into weather worthwhile with all this uncertainty!

I am hopeful that by Sunday 18z/Monday 0z we might have firmer ideass on this coming week.

[snowdrifter]

Just got n-w extra for the month ahead. I can see why so many recommend it. With so many possibilities this week, I can see the 5 minute radar being worth the subs alone. Looks like it will snow this week, but for who, how much and for how long is going to be an unfolding drama. Feb '96 please. Good luck everyone. Hoping the 06z upgrades, prolongs and looks even better.

[West is Best]

So please can we have the old Richard back who occasionally brought some humour and lightheartedness to the room rather than constant gloom.

Hello Nick!

If I thought there was a true prospect ahead of the Thursday 'event' I promise I'd mention it - afterall, did I not ramp some cold about 10 days ago on the basis of the southern jet movement? I honestly cannot see how anything will resist that jet, although I have had a PM to and from Steve M in Iceland this morning who offers one possibility - I'll leave it to him to post on return.

However, rather than have the old Richard back I'm posting elsewhere, and will stop being grumpy about this thread. If people enjoy this sort of thing, then it would be very rude of me to interfere. I'm going to stick with the technical discussions from now on (providing I can keep up, that is), and leave other people to have their fun on here.

R

[Matty M]

6z abit more progressive with PV exit from newfoundland..

Could just be generally more progressive.