Glimmer of hope model discussion

[Polar Continental]

Morning All-

Heavy snow here in iceland this morning- 12c 850 HPA

Models look increasingly good for getting the surface feed off the continent-

The potential stilll remains firmly in play folks........

S :lol:

Hi Paul/nick/snowmaiden

Very pleasing to see the model output this morning take another turn in our favour with the breakdown put back a bit further still and the high pressure development to the east as suggested possible previously being developed further by the models.

I always thought that the original prognosis by the models, especially ECM, was way too progressive with the atlantic coming in. Huge uncertainty continues, the FI boundary stays at t120 and that increasing possibility I have mentioned recently of a change to continental influences through this month takes a step nearer.

Anything is still possible of course, including the atlantic returning, but the cold high pressure is going to be much harder to shift than the models anticipated. And perhpas we shouldn't be too surprised - even in the a very mild winter such as this one has been.

A definite further upgrade this morning

Tamara

Morning Tamara, Steve, all,

Yes indeed, great to see some wintry weather on the cards now, the cold spell is nailed on for sure, even this morning it was –4.4c here and the cold spell hasn’t started yet, all we need now is the Atlantic to come in far enough to bring in the precipitation and not its warmth, this is looking increasingly likely, we just need to wait and see, the next few runs should hopefully deliver the goods.

Ps Steve, you lucky sod. :lol:

Paul

[nick sussex]

Hello Nick!

If I thought there was a true prospect ahead of the Thursday 'event' I promise I'd mention it - afterall, did I not ramp some cold about 10 days ago on the basis of the southern jet movement? I honestly cannot see how anything will resist that jet, although I have had a PM to and from Steve M in Iceland this morning who offers one possibility - I'll leave it to him to post on return.

However, rather than have the old Richard back I'm posting elsewhere, and will stop being grumpy about this thread. If people enjoy this sort of thing, then it would be very rude of me to interfere. I'm going to stick with the technical discussions from now on (providing I can keep up, that is), and leave other people to have their fun on here.

R

Fair enough. :lol: Even in Iceland Steve M cant resist seeing whats going on in here, lets hope hes having a nice holiday and seeing some snow. :lol:

[Matty M]

mmmmm Not as good so far.. some decent changes for T+66hrs

6z is pretty disappointing.. cold air exiting

The cold air on the 6z is leaving before a breakdown can even occur, may get good for eastern eastern UK later but no good for me or for much of Britain

[Harsh Climate]

It's also known as a whopping outlier - 'whopping' being probably an apt word. (Chris - snap!)

The ECM is very zonal, so not sure why the excitement there? There's no height rise to the NE. Instead there's a stonking jet pattern which blows away any hint of a proper Scandi high. The best thing is to enjoy whatever you get next week, because beyond that looks pretty grim for cold prospects at the moment.

lol what charts are you looking at?

The ECMWF this morning is cracking!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif This chart shows slow progress of the fronts trying to push north east, the fronts might even be pushing south east on this with a southerly to northerly tilt in the winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

According to this chart, the air would then be feeding in off the sea a bit and with the onset of mild atlantic air being held atbay for a another day or so.. :lol:

Remember, ussually when we get rain preceeded by snow is because the rainband pushes quickly through and is followed quickly by a strong southwesterly of some sorts. This isnt the case this time. :lol:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Low pressure over scandinavia less aparant. Remember this is the key if where to get a good scandinavian high develope..

Edited February 3, 2007 by Jed Bickerdike

[Matty M]

Okay i'll say it for the last time!!

The 6z is aload of gack and real disappointment!!

[VillagePlank]

Just my t'pence worth . . .

The 0z has notoriously been quite a warm run of late, so any progression - even if one deems it to be an outlier, unlikely, or sporadically unstable - should be welcomed by cold-lovers. I suppose one can say that one of the warmest runs is now experimenting with cold output within the next 7 days. Which, IMHO, is not a bad thing.

I expect the normal pattern to follow suite, with 6z, so the eyes should be on isobaric patterns, and how they differ, and, I think, not on airmass battlegrounds (ie frontal snow)

I think it goes without saying we need pressure to drop or fronts to glide over is in order to get the air lifting and precipitation falling, so the jet, if well positioned, could indeed be saviour of the breakdown.

All eyes looking forward, then . . .

[TEITS]

Morning all and what a very good sets of runs this morning.

A week of lovely frosty weather with max temps only around 3-4C and min temps could drop down as low as -10C in some favourable areas. After this we have the potential for a snow event before the Atlantic TRIES to move in!. One chart that I find interesting is the +144 where after the precip moves across the temps across W parts drop to -7C. This can only be down to one thing snow cover and slack winds.

Notice I say the Atlantic tries to move in because im not so sure it will!. The trend since yesterday is for the GFS to delay the arrival of the front due to rising pressure to our E. Well the GEFS have finally thrown in an ensemble which given the current pattern was in inevitable.

Atlantic tries to move in.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-192.png?0

HP to the E builds preventing atlantic moving in and forcing a shortwave to move SE undercutting the HP.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-252.png?0

HP in full control

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-324.png?0

Beast brings blizzards for many.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?0

I know this is only one member but I tell you what I would not rule this pattern out whatsoever. I shall be watching the GEFS +192 if this pattern gets any support.

[Snowly does it]

Cold air has not dug as far south early on on the 06z and therefore is pushed back more readily bythe oncoming Atlantic. On this version of events, the battle zone between cold and mild looks to have us on the wrong side... but lets see where it goes after T102.

Edited February 3, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Matty M]

Morning all and what a very good sets of runs this morning.

A week of lovely frosty weather with max temps only around 3-4C and min temps could drop down as low as -10C in some favourable areas. After this we have the potential for a snow event before the Atlantic TRIES to move in!. One chart that I find interesting is the +144 where after the precip moves across the temps across W parts drop to -7C. This can only be down to one thing snow cover and slack winds.

Notice I say the Atlantic tries to move in because im not so sure it will!. The trend since yesterday is for the GFS to delay the arrival of the front due to rising pressure to our E. Well the GEFS have finally thrown in an ensemble which given the current pattern was in inevitable.

Atlantic tries to move in.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-192.png?0

HP to the E builds preventing atlantic moving in and forcing a shortwave to move SE undercutting the HP.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-252.png?0

HP in full control

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-324.png?0

Beast brings blizzards for many.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-384.png?0

I know this is only one member but I tell you what I would not rule this pattern out whatsoever. I shall be watching the GEFS +192 if this pattern gets any support.

Have you seen the 6z? Wouldn't be a chance of snow anywhere with it away from the Welch peaks and Scottish highlands MAYBE..

A real kick in the teeth for ... when all was going so well

[Snowly does it]

Have you seen the 6z? Wouldn't be a chance of snow anywhere with it away from the Welch peaks and Scottish highlands MAYBE..

A real kick in the teeth for ... when all was going so well

That will all depend on whether subsequent runs and the other models agree....

We know the difficulties of forecasting these tyes of scanario.

What you need to watch is how the ridge of HP from GL develops after the initial block forms - the previous two runs had it digging the -5 air further south and rather quicker which allowed it to establish a little better.

Yes the 06z is poor looking for a frontal event however taken in isolation.

[TEITS]

A real kick in the teeth for ... when all was going so well

Not yet but I don't base my conclusions on one run but view all the runs & ensembles.

[West is Best]

lol what charts are you looking at? The ECMWF this morning is cracking!

I'm looking at the ECM's own charts ...

Can't see what there is to be excited about really in that. I maintain that the interest should be on the frontal impact (or probable lack of it!) on Thursday next week. After that the Atlantic looks too dominant to me to be resisted even by TEITS' easterly wish.

But I'm now breaking my rule: off to the other thread, and will leave you to ramp away if you want to! Enjoy the ride!

[SP1986]

The 6z just shows there is significant uncertainty with the probability leaning away from any snowfall occuring from a breakdown. We should just hope that small cell of high pressure is anomalous, and doesn't appear in future runs, or it's almost certainly no go for any snow in that particular scenario.

[Shunter]

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1321.png

Channel low anyone??

[TEITS]

After that the Atlantic looks too dominant to me to be resisted even by TEITS' easterly wish.

You see it is a statement like that what irritates me.

The E,ly isn't me wishing it to happen or hopecasting or even drawing it on my wallpaper. The E,ly was shown on the GEFS ensemble and all im doing is merely highlighting the chart in the MODEL discussion thread!.

[Weather-history]

Have you seen the 6z? Wouldn't be a chance of snow anywhere with it away from the Welch peaks and Scottish highlands MAYBE..

A real kick in the teeth for ... when all was going so well

I'm not quite sure why you are so concern Matty, your area was never really in the risk area to begin with

[Matty M]

I'm not quite sure why you are so concern Matty, your area was never really in the risk area to begin with

Yes it was Northern and Eastern Ireland were always at risk, just the timing of the frontal systems was crucial. Many of the 0z Ensembles played snow for this part.

[Hagler]

One bad run and all hell breaks loose

[Osbourne One-Nil]

West Is Best....go.

[VillagePlank]

One bad run and all hell breaks loose

My vote's on tomorrows 6z/12z to show a good idea of what to expect next week - for detail - the runs the day before. As always a marginal situation that computer modelling doesn't cope with well: my advice is to listen to experienced human forecasters, at this stage.

[TEITS]

I tell you what nobody may not have a clue what is going to happen at the end of the week but who would of thought a chart like this was possible 2 days ago!!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

Im like Nick Sussex it is what happens beyond this week I find more interesting because when it comes to the snow event we shall probably have to wait until 48hrs before the event to know what will fall.

Except Tamara because she did say this was a possibility.

Edited February 3, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Snowly does it]

One bad run and all hell breaks loose

Agreed. Thre are many questions that need resolving from the current output - is this run a mild outlier? Is it the new version of reality? Is it a correction that will backtrack to a middle ground solution, what do the ensembles look like?

-5 air never gets far from the East of the UK, however the Atlantic is a well known spoiler. Fascinating runs ahead.

[nick sussex]

You have to laugh! it looks like chaos is set to break out again in the models as pressure wants to ridge over those lows from the east. Lets look at the bigger picture here, do we want a snow to rain event and then the atlantic back in or do we want a longer lasting cold spell? I know people might be a bit disappointed about the breakdown but things are still volatile even before 96hrs. Confusion is always a good sign, who would like to make a forecast for next week, you'd be pretty brave!

[Harsh Climate]

Some of you lot need to get back to specsavers n purchase some new glasses!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

whats *bad* about this?

Just as Ive stated, the expected low pressure over scandinavia is the key to whether or not we can get a worthwile scandi high. no low pressure there n things get interesting!

lol, the south east were never at risk from the battleground scenario... still looks good for me though...

Edited February 3, 2007 by Jed Bickerdike

[Snowly does it]

You have to laugh! it looks like chaos is set to break out again in the models as pressure wants to ridge over those lows from the east. Lets look at the bigger picture here, do we want a snow to rain event and then the atlantic back in or do we want a longer lasting cold spell? I know people might be a bit disappointed about the breakdown but things are still volatile even before 96hrs. Confusion is always a good sign, who would like to make a forecast for next week, you'd be pretty brave!

Odds on the 12z, 18z and 0z showing the same set up from T66 to T102? Probably 100-1!!