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Glimmer of hope model discussion

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
see my blog for your likely weather frosty

Thanks John I will have a look, hope it's good news. :)

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
for anyone interested I've done blog 4. Sorry its a big file so be patient if you have not got broadband for it to download.

regards

John

Is it on your website man

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shrike Newbie

shrike

Posted
  • Location: Ballygally, co. antrim, n.ire
  • Location: Ballygally, co. antrim, n.ire
Posted

It makes me laugh how the chance of snow can cause so much hostility between some posters. My area will get more than yours or your area was never going to get any snow anyway type of posts :)

Anyway the BBC forecast mentioned a chance of snow for some later next week so thats good news they are mentioning it!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Only another 3 hours to the next gfs run! :) I need to get out more! I'm sure this place will be very busy tonight seeing as we might be approaching a crucial fork in the road, one sign says cold then snowy breakdown for some then back to average, the other says cold then snowy breakdown then scandi high lows tracking more southerly and loads of fun for us, of course theres always the cold then more damp squib breakdown with much less snow for most and then lows edging further north as the pressure rise to the ne is blown away by the atlantic.

So where will we be this evening? its bite your finger nails time, I think I'll be viewing future model runs from behind the sofa! Could be a pivotal few days coming up now!

See you all later. :)

Edited by nick sussex
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

The METO seem to be putting out forecasts for the breakdown to occour on Weds with snow for midlands north. This seems to be at odds with their fax which shows it happening on Thurs along with GFS. I have a feeling that the breakdown will be put back and back as time goes on. we may even see it not reaching any forther East than the Wes Midlands before backtracking. Does anyone on here dare have a punt on whether it will happen Weds or Thurs?

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grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted
see my blog for your likely weather frosty

Thanks for that John,

I think, its's great to be able to follow things as they develop.

It looks like we are going to have to be patient for a little while longer.

Thanks for the time and effort you have put in for us all.

Very much appreciated.

Brian.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
Click on John's profile and then on his blog button

tks for that

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MisfitDog3 Apprentice

MisfitDog3

Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
Posted

Hmmmm....can't say I like any of the model scenarios at the moment for Tues/Wed onwards. Just seem to be all over the place. I'm glad we'll get a few frosts though in the immediate future...we have an outbreak of mosquitoes at the moment!

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted

Afternoon,

Looks like our Polar Depression is getting its act together now. Greatest pressure falls now occurring in the Norwegian Sea bteween Jan Mayen and Central Norway. A vicious undercut of Arctic air pushing out of Eastern Greenland. Note Scoresby Sound, temp -11C with gusts to 168 km/h and pressure now rising.

C

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

FI really is T+96 at the moment. Higher pressure here or lower pressure there will make all the difference between a major snow event or very wet, cold and windy.

Why do the models struggle so?

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Well what has the GFS and Co got for us on this lovely spring day. Signs of cool wet end to the week here anyway. Odd for white stuff frost only but I still fancy Scotland though. Still out of the reliable time frame.

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grab my graupel Enthusiast

grab my graupel

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
Well what has the GFS and Co got for us on this lovely spring day. Signs of cool wet end to the week here anyway. Odd for white stuff frost only but I still fancy Scotland though. Still out of the reliable time frame.

It seems an agonizingly long wait for the 12z to come out dosen't PIT.

I'm dying to know if that high pressure keeps building to the N.E.

I can't see the atlantic rushing back.

I'm expecting upgrades alround, and am remaining optimistic.

Brian

Edited by grab my graupels
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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted

Ok.. hands up for all those people sitting at their keyboards with a beer one side of the keyboard and hankies on the other side, waiting for the next run of charts?

To be honest i aint to botherd what happens as i just like observing what people say about the charts. anyway hope its a snowy win to the scenerio for you guys. :)

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kippure Explorer

kippure

Posted
  • Location: Canada
  • Location: Canada
Posted
It seems an agonizingly long wait for the 12z to come out dosen't PIT.

I'm dying to know if that high pressure keeps building to the N.E.

I can't see the atlantic rushing back.

I'm expecting upgrades alround, and am remaining optimistic.

Brian

True :)

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
Ok.. hands up for all those people sitting at their keyboards with a beer one side of the keyboard and hankies on the other side, waiting for the next run of charts?

To be honest i aint to botherd what happens as i just like observing what people say about the charts. anyway hope its a snowy win to the scenerio for you guys. :)

Nah just looking at the Photo's I took this morning Castleton way. Managed to confuse the Camera due to the huge contrast between the shaded valley and the peaks. I'll have a peak around 4:30 ish. In the meantime I'll listen to the football and then it's model time and then Cider time. I'm backing a slightly milder 12oz.

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willinkent Newbie

willinkent

Posted
  • Location: Faverham, Kent
  • Location: Faverham, Kent
Posted

Glass of rose here but yes waiting in anticipation.......

from here on in rollercoaster ride begins in earnest...... ohhhhhhhh :):):)

Ok.. hands up for all those people sitting at their keyboards with a beer one side of the keyboard and hankies on the other side, waiting for the next run of charts?

To be honest i aint to botherd what happens as i just like observing what people say about the charts. anyway hope its a snowy win to the scenerio for you guys. :)

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted (edited)
It seems an agonizingly long wait for the 12z to come out dosen't PIT.

I'm dying to know if that high pressure keeps building to the N.E.

I can't see the atlantic rushing back.

I'm expecting upgrades alround, and am remaining optimistic.

Brian

I think your insane. Lol.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

I'm getting ready for a big let down.

The latest Meto Update is out and doesn't make good reading for widespread snow, but the 12z may change that.

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted (edited)

Better run at this point and quite alot better much the same as the 0z

Orientation of lows in the Atlantic means the cold is lasting longer.

Should be a nice run :)

Did i speak to soon? Perhaps... but better than the 6z run anyway!

Edited by Matty M
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Better run at this point and quite alot better much the same as the 0z

Orientation of lows in the Atlantic means the cold is lasting longer.

Should be a nice run :)

Hope your right, that jet looks like it will smash through no bother.

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