Glimmer of hope model discussion

[Snowly does it]

Jet slightly further south on this run?

Anyway, the 12z shows better established -5 air over much of the UK, the West however seeing encroachment as the systems approach.

[PersianPaladin]

Our high gradually fades away eastwards at T96; and with the tropospheric polar vortices merging together to the south of Greenland from this swathe of low heights - eastern Europe northwards - I feel that the chances of a good mid-level ridge holding to be rather low.

Breakdown? Probably brief night snow for midlands northwards followed by sleet and rain.

[Matty M]

Our high gradually fades away eastwards at T96; and with the tropospheric polar vortices merging together to the south of Greenland from this swathe of low heights - eastern Europe northwards - I feel that the chances of a good mid-level ridge holding to be rather low.

Breakdown? Probably brief night snow for midlands northwards followed by sleet and rain.

Yup and earlier suggestions of poss of snow here are dimishing rapidly.. the time of the approach of the cold aint helping either

Interesting for southeastern Engerland though

Edited February 3, 2007 by Matty M

[grab my graupel]

Height rises still looking good over scandi.

Could be interesting.

[Snowyowl9]

I woudn't be too sure P.P. look at nice cold air creeping in

More of a SE on this run,better than the 6z.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1021.png

[HellyHanson]

looking good at T108

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

Feb 1996?

[Thundery wintry showers]

850hPa's are a little high, approaching 0C- so chance of possible freezing rain on the evidence of the 12Z. Specifics will, though, as John Holmes has regularly pointed out over the past couple of days, be difficult to pinpoint until about 48 hours from the event, and there will be plenty of changes on subsequent runs.

[PersianPaladin]

850hPa's are a little high, approaching 0C- so chance of possible freezing rain on the evidence of the 12Z. Specifics will, though, as John Holmes has regularly pointed out over the past couple of days, be difficult to pinpoint until about 48 hours from the event, and there will be plenty of changes on subsequent runs.

I agree; although I think its looking good for some temporary snow (perhaps 4 hours) for Lincolnshire northwards - in a line to, say, Halifax. A tad more marginal for those further south. But a lot can still change at this range.

I would prefer it if more people saw snow rather than a few upland locations in the north. All too fleeting for my liking; a dry northerly with brief snow followed by rain and slighty milder conditions.

Edited February 3, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Snowly does it]

I agree; although I think its looking good for some temporary snow (perhaps 4 hours) for Lincolnshire northwards - in a line to, say, Halifax. A tad more marginal for those further south. But a lot can still change at this range.

I would prefer it if more people saw snow rather than a few upland locations in the north.

Thursday night into Friday looks interesting on this run? -5 air creeping back in, presumably that lp is drawing it back as it passes....

[Thunder Snow]

This run looks fun for thursday into friday

Edited February 3, 2007 by Thunder Snow

[PersianPaladin]

This run looks fun for thursaday into friday

Yes, but not in Carlisle.

All over at T144 tho....I'm dreading the massing of that PV just to the west of Greenland. Arrrggghhh.....

Edited February 3, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[HellyHanson]

Atlantic trying to get in again at 144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

still cold

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

[willinkent]

This run looks much better for eastern england, still marginal but cooler dewpoints being pushed back into uk. Eventhough, its only one run...... could go poof over next 94hrs...... only another 16-20 runs b4 we will know what has happened......

[TEITS]

Yes, but not in Carlisle.

All over at T144 tho....I'm dreading the massing of that PV just to the west of Greenland. Arrrggghhh.....

Hang on though PP it was only a few days ago that the models indicated a few hrs of snow and milder weather arriving by Wed.

Look at the temps at +144 for Friday hardly mild is it!!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

The block to our E is going to remain stubborn and I bet many more changes are going to occur. Even the countryfile forecast tomorrow will be null & void by Mon such is the uncertainity and the likelyhood of further changes. I suggest members look at the models with an eye to the overall trends rather than the will it snow attitude.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The chart for 9 February 2007 on the GFS 12Z looks uncannily similar to 22 January 1984:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119840122.gif

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

The block to our E is going to remain stubborn and I bet many more changes are going to occur.

Hi Dave,

Yes the Scandi block is even more robust on this run too. Could be interesting...

Ned

[PersianPaladin]

Hang on though PP it was only a few days ago that the models indicated a few hrs of snow and milder weather arriving by Wed.

Look at the temps at +144 for Friday hardly mild is it!!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

The block to our E is going to remain stubborn and I bet many more changes are going to occur. Even the countryfile forecast tomorrow will be null & void by Mon such is the uncertainity and the likelyhood of further changes. I suggest members look at the models with an eye to the overall trends rather than the will it snow attitude.

I do realise that; but the charts indicated at T144 show the beginning of the end of the cold northerly flow over our shores; and a more modified (but not exactly mild) Atlantic airmass starts to ooze in.

Edited February 3, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Snow storm]

Saturday looking not so good

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png

[mcweather]

Looking around at various forecasters outputs today I have a feeling that the battle between Mild and Cold may well be more drawn out than they were anticipating and may not necessarily just be the steady sweeping north-east of the mild air that was being mooted yesterday. I would expect the countryfile forecast tomorrow morning to reflect this with the forecaster going for the mild to win out but with the low confidence card being played quite strongly on this. In a sitiuation like this very small changes in the direction of the low can make all the difference. A change of just 50 miles north or south could make the difference.

Over the years I have noticed that situations like the one currently developing can change quite rapidly and very often not in the way that the forecasters or the models were going for.

After my loss of interest on thursday eve I must admit I am once again very intrigued.

[Weather-history]

Has anyone noticed the lack of mild sectors with these lows or how little upper air of >0hpa air associated with these lows?

Edited February 3, 2007 by Mr_Data

[grab my graupel]

Hang on though PP it was only a few days ago that the models indicated a few hrs of snow and milder weather arriving by Wed.

Look at the temps at +144 for Friday hardly mild is it!!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

The block to our E is going to remain stubborn and I bet many more changes are going to occur. Even the countryfile forecast tomorrow will be null & void by Mon such is the uncertainity and the likelyhood of further changes. I suggest members look at the models with an eye to the overall trends rather than the will it snow attitude.

Yes I agree with that,

and europe looks a great deal colder on this run also.

If anyting I think that block to the East will get stronger as it approaches a reliable

timeframe.

Could be interesting in the next few days, and will be good to see what the ensembles have to say.

I think we need to look east rather than west.

[Snowly does it]

Has anyone noticed the lack of mild sectors with these lows or how little upper air of >0hpa air associated with these lows?

Yes, I did

Isn't the -5air trying to undercut next saturday?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Has anyone noticed the lack of mild sectors with these lows or how little upper air of >0hpa air associated with these lows?

It often happens with these battleground situations. 21-23 January 1984 (as I posted a chart from earlier) and 5-7 February 1996 both had cool westerlies battling with cold continental air.

[TEITS]

I do realise that; but the charts indicated at T144 show the beginning of the end of the cold northerly flow over our shores; and a more modified (but not exactly mild) Atlantic airmass starts to ooze in.

Why are you so certain??.

Correct me if im wrong but wasn't it so certain that the atlantic was going to move in on Wednesday.

What im basically saying is over these last few days the trend has been to prolong this cold spell due to heights increasing to our E. Who's to say this trend will continue and the advance of the atlantic will be delayed further. Who knows the models may continue this so we find that the precip never makes its way across to the E!!. This of course is unlikely at this stage but I have seen these scenarios so many times over the past 30years that I wouldn't write anything off just yet.

Edited February 3, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[HellyHanson]

Saturday looking not so good

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png

At least it aint mild

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.png