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The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

J10

By J10
in Spring Weather Discussion

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

It's nicked my Cider me thinks Ramp Alert Ramp Alert Upgrade Alert Upgrade Alert.

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rdt123 Contributor

rdt123

Posted
  • Location: Billingham on tees
  • Location: Billingham on tees
Posted
Exactly, it's starting to look like a possible scenario is that the fronts are stalled to such an extent that they hardly get over England to any great extent, until of course the milder air actually does win, so what we end up with is dry cold air hanging around for longer , but any proper precipitation only arrives with the milder air, later.

Well yes, but at T+138 the high draws a bit of an easterly but brings -10 850's just off the coast. The fisrt front just gets chewed up on this run. Sooooo interesting compared to the dross of recent years!

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Knocking on my doorstep!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

I must say I would rather have the cold spell prolonged at the expense of the snowfall because who knows where this will lead to.

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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted
:drinks: --><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 4 Feb 2007, 12:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->One heck of a cold pool out to the east if we were to tap into that then we "could" be onto something special.

Great to see you on here again Paul.

This Scandi HP has got me very curious indeed especially how the models are handling this. Over these past few days the models have hinted at this moving being closer to the UK. Now on the 18Z this is ridging further NW to an extent where E England is pulling a SE,ly in.

What in your opinion is the chances of this HP having such an effect where the Atlantic is unable to progres across the country and dare I say it an E,ly pushes across the UK.

Hi TEITS, nice to see you are still here!

I have to say the 18Z is a sensational run up to T+132 with this Scandinavian High becoming increasingly powerful. I've not seen model runs from recent days, but from what I can gather there seems to be a trend developing which is pushing back the Atlantic influence. I also gather this Scandinavian High was not even shown on the models a couple of days ago.

In my experience, cold weather often clings on to the UK for longer than any model originally suggests. What is currently being progged by the GFS, and also to a lesser extent by the other models, is a pretty unusual situation, so they are bound to struggle. Indeed, from what I have read here, the models are struggling.

The trend seems to be for the Atlantic influence to be increasingly pushed back, and for pressure to build over Scandinavia. This is a developing situation, and from what I have seen tonight, I would suggest that the Atlantic will have very little impact over the UK during the next 5 days at least.

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
Knocking on my doorstep!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

I must say I would rather have the cold spell prolonged at the expense of the snowfall because who knows where this will lead to.

Surely if this easterly developed for the large part of the country, there would be less if any snow with just the east facing coasts doing well from the odd shower??

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
This is more like the old days of stubborn Scandi high verses Atlantic, exciting times ahead folks! :drinks:

Can't remember the last one when was that????

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Mammatus Apprentice

Mammatus

Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
Posted
Cold air being pushed out though before the fronts arrive..

Very similar to the 12z though so expected but not the same as the UKM and ECM take on things :)

Pressure upto 1030mb over Scandy at 114hrs

Cold being pushed back into eastern England!!!!!

This is a great run so far for cold lovers! It's nice to see the growing potential for a rather more prolonged cold spell, with the Atlantic never quite making it across our shores. 850hpa air always below -7C across extreme East of UK with the cold air retreating Westwards towards end of week.

I'm over the moon at the recent model runs, a rapturous applause for the GFS 18hz!!!! :drinks:

The reliable looks very good, are there more upgrades for even colder temperature's just around the corner?? :D

Mammatus

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PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted

Not sure what to make of the 18z. F.I. is still T120 as the whole thing is looking rather complex. The dissipation of the PV circulation south-west of Greenland and the reforming of heights east of Greenland towards T120 is a good sign of a developing moderate Scandi high. Considerable jet bifurcation at T132 into F.I. leaves things very much up in the air but almost ensures stalling of the fronts out west and the pushing back of any break-down event into F.I.

Fascinating stuff. Our Scandi-high gets stronger and is slightly propped by some shallow med troughs that seem to be partly derived from the southerly bifurcated arm of the jet with this helping the area of upper-convergence northwards to build further into the Norwegian Sea. Looks very dry though, and the modelling of the PV and its further dissipation southwards will be important for allowing the Scandi-high to ridge further north and north-west.

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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

Given tonights ECM and UKMO I think we have a shot at quite a rear event.

ECM is great.

GFS good

UKMO good

Real improvements here and I must say im far happier now then I was this morning 8)

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Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted

8) -->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 3 Feb 2007, 10:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Hi TEITS, nice to see you are still here!

.... I also gather this Scandinavian High was not even shown on the models a couple of days ago.

It was on the JMA Paul 8)

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

What a lovely 18z! It reminds me of last March (I think it was the 12th) when the Scandinavian high managed to push the Atlantic air back westwards.

Note in this run that the low pressure that is initially to the north of the Scandi high is a lot weaker and moves around te high without making it slip southeastwards. As a result the high continues to strengthen and the cold air moves back in for us.

In a way it is similar to the ECM but with higer pressure in Scandinavia.

I agree with TEITS, I'd much rather have a lengthy cold spell than a 2 hour snow event and then rain.

Karyo

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SP1986 Accomplished

SP1986

Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Posted
Knocking on my doorstep!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

I must say I would rather have the cold spell prolonged at the expense of the snowfall because who knows where this will lead to.

Of course that usually comes at a detriment to someone else. For example a breakdown may give snow in the west, whilst a Scandinavian setup will give snow in the east but perhaps not in the west. It's one of those 8) All localities etc beside though, it looks like a nice setup where some wintry weather may be prolonged. Those Scandinavian spells can sometimes last a while, but I dont want to jinx it before it's even setup. Given the broad pattern for the potential breakdown snow had pretty much stayed similar, if the currently showing occurs then I believe it will stay in the charts!

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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
Posted
Surely if this easterly developed for the large part of the country, there would be less if any snow with just the east facing coasts doing well from the odd shower??

true true. Not all of us on here love an easterley as nowadays snow never spreads more than a stones throw away from the east coasts

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PB22 Enthusiast

PB22

Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
Posted
8) --><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Paul B @ 3 Feb 2007, 10:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Hi TEITS, nice to see you are still here!

.... I also gather this Scandinavian High was not even shown on the models a couple of days ago.

It was on the JMA Paul 8)

Really?! Blimey, JMA is the new trend setter? I have been away a long time! 8)

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
8)

Back in the 70's I think from memory which is fading these days......... 8)

Which I think is correct.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
  • Author
Posted
true true. Not all of us on here love an easterley as nowadays snow never spreads more than a stones throw away from the east coasts

The 18Hz is looking very similar to the 96 event, should be good for you.

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