Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread


J10

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Surely if this easterly developed for the large part of the country, there would be less if any snow with just the east facing coasts doing well from the odd shower??

Depends really because at the moment we could see either of these options.

(1) Atlantic moves in bringing rain/less cold temps

(2) Atlantic moves in but rain is preceeded by snow for a few hrs

(3) Atlantic moves in but brings a substantial amount of snow before turning less cold

(4) The Atlantic doesn't move in due to the HP and we remain in cold frosty weather

(5) The Atlantic moves in but the front grinds to a halt bringing heavy snow for some locations before the snow dies away and we remain in the cold air due to the HP.

Worth pointing out that when I say less cold I don't mean mild because recent GFS outputs have suggested we shall stay on the colder side of average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Its unforunate the PV never allows a true Easterly to develope but hell this is a major upgrade for most. Assuming its not an outlier of course which it may be 8)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

A very good run so far. This has something similar to what the JMA was suggesting a few days ago. Cold easterly winds pushing back the atlantic air. If this happens it really will be exciting times.

Rtavn1322.png

Something that almost never happens in the even larger teapot....cold pushing warmth out of the way!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I think The Eye sums it up well there.

I'm just wondering this High seems a low level feature so can't it just be pushed aside like the others????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
The 18Hz is looking very similar to the 96 event, should be good for you.

So I presume we lose the early' breakdown' snow but gain in the long term from troughs/heavy prolonged snow showers from the East.. Nimby alert!!!! Higher parts of Sheffield tend to do well from both( though my short to mid term memory is not what it was!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Depends really because at the moment we could see either of these options.

(1) Atlantic moves in bringing rain/less cold temps

(2) Atlantic moves in but rain is preceeded by snow for a few hrs

(3) Atlantic moves in but brings a substantial amount of snow before turning less cold

(4) The Atlantic doesn't move in due to the HP and we remain in cold frosty weather

(5) The Atlantic moves in but the front grinds to a halt bringing heavy snow for some locations before the snow dies away and we remain in the cold air due to the HP.

Worth pointing out that when I say less cold I don't mean mild because recent GFS outputs have suggested we shall stay on the colder side of average.

I would prefer number 3 than number 4. I think people on here wants to see snow and not just V cold and frosty weather so i don't understand the celebrations.

Then again people are more of an expert than me so they may explain why they are so happy with a increasently stronger scando high.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Although a frontal system arrives eventually during Saturday morning on the 18z, with rain preceeded by snow:

post-1052-1170542141_thumb.pngpost-1052-1170542163_thumb.png

The much milder Tm air and Atlantic lows make little progress Eastwards due to the high to our East. In fact if the Scandi high sees further build in heights, then there's chance that the much colder pooling to the East will back West towards the UK.

Quite different from previous runs wrt to stalling the progress East of Atlantic depressions, so caution needed until further runs back up this idea of the blocking high to the East, but a very interesting twist in events nonetheless, with 18z backing away from the return to Atlantic low domination idea.

Mild S'erlies seek their way in eventually, but FI fortunately ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
Depends really because at the moment we could see either of these options.

(1) Atlantic moves in bringing rain/less cold temps

(2) Atlantic moves in but rain is preceeded by snow for a few hrs

(3) Atlantic moves in but brings a substantial amount of snow before turning less cold

(4) The Atlantic doesn't move in due to the HP and we remain in cold frosty weather

(5) The Atlantic moves in but the front grinds to a halt bringing heavy snow for some locations before the snow dies away and we remain in the cold air due to the HP.

Worth pointing out that when I say less cold I don't mean mild because recent GFS outputs have suggested we shall stay on the colder side of average.

Number 5 would be my ideal scenario but failing that, number 4. I really don't want to see any rain, and snow turning to rain after a couple of hours, as in number 2, would be like offering me a present then, just as I was unwrapping it, taking it off me.

Edited by Cymru
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet

8) -->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 3 Feb 2007, 10:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Really?! Blimey, JMA is the new trend setter? I have been away a long time! 8)

Evening everyone, welcome back Paul B :)

Nice get back from the pub and find the pub run is living up to its name. Good height rises over Scandi, this looks to be ridging towards greenland 8)

Paul

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Got a feeling this High maybe around a little longer than expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
I would prefer number 3 than number 4. I think people on here wants to see snow and not just V cold and frosty weather so i don't understand the celebrations.

Then again people are more of an expert than me so they may explain why they are so happy with a increasently stronger scando high.

I suppose this is what I was saying to JS earlier it's all about your location dictating whether you like this run or not.

Im sure those away from the E will be willing the front to move in across the W whereas us members in the E will be hoping some of the colder shown on the link below comes our way.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

Good way of summing up the 18Z is poor for those looking for snowfall because the front would die out pretty quickly on this run. However the potential especially for us in the E is certainly worth watching.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole
Yep a good spell of snow shown from 150 hours onwards on this run:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

A good spell of virtual snow! Well into FI???

Unfortunatley the virtual stuff is not as good as the real thing!

Dave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The gfs 18hrs run certainly throws the outlook into even more confusion! this run actually backs the gme 12hrs run. I wouldnt dismiss this run because its the 18hrs run and this is plausible given the trend to build pressure to the east, this really is not that much of a surprise.

Of course if this verifies it means no real snow event for wed/thurs and any snow is more likely to skirt with western areas if the front makes it that far. There is of course the possibility of another snow event later, the key is if we are to get this build of pressure that it doesnt sink so as when the next atlantic low tries to get in that we can see this undercut colder air being pulled in from the east and se.

We'll have to wait to see what the other models do in the morning as the gfs has been at odds with the ukmo and ecm in terms of the type of breakdown shown in earlier runs, it would be a pretty sensational turn of events if all this model drama ends up in a scandi high.

Of course the other models might not back this and the gfs might ditch this in the morning, the model drama continues, this is all very exhausting! 8)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Damn I've just realised I'm posting FI stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Yep a good spell of snow shown from 150 hours onwards on this run:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

it's getting rarer than hens teeth down here,even with all this cold ramping please remember us poor souls who can only watch with envy 8)

Edited by BARRY
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
I suppose this is what I was saying to JS earlier it's all about your location dictating whether you like this run or not.

Im sure those away from the E will be willing the front to move in across the W whereas us members in the E will be hoping some of the colder shown on the link below comes our way.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png

Good way of summing up the 18Z is poor for those looking for snowfall because the front would die out pretty quickly on this run. However the potential especially for us in the E is certainly worth watching.

I was just worried that the Easterly will be dry due to being so close to the scandi high. Of corse if this high helps up folk in the east then its definatly a move in the right direction. Then again its not set in stone and loads more runs are needed and the countryfile forecast should be interesting viewing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
This is a great run so far for cold lovers! It's nice to see the growing potential for a rather more prolonged cold spell, with the Atlantic never quite making it across our shores. 850hpa air always below -7C across extreme East of UK with the cold air retreating Westwards towards end of week.

I'm over the moon at the recent model runs, a rapturous applause for the GFS 18hz!!!! 8)

The reliable looks very good, are there more upgrades for even colder temperature's just around the corner?? 8)

Mammatus

Just got back in for the 18z as you say what a gorgeous run we have tonight.

Brilliant for the long term potential.

I always felt that high would keep building as the signs were there.

Those who are wishing to see some storms are going to have to wait a while longer

I'm afraid.

What fascinating model watching we are being treated to.

00z should be good. 8)

Brian.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Sorry I dont share the optimism. This run is a major downgrade for a rare large scale snow event midweek. As has already been said an Easterly will only bring snow to the extreem East. What the 12z and Fax etc show is a snow event over most of the country giving at least 5cm to most locations. Sorry but this is a disapointing run as far as im concerned. Anyway whinge over back to the beer 8)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

i hate the word MARGINAL means someone goings to be dissapointed,im always feel wuth this type of set up if it comes off(mild air hiting the cold air)a gamble,and cant be trusted,somewhere will be predicted snow and get rain,even on the day of forecast,and the other way around,a despression with snow already on it,is a much worthy case,there always a risk that these things dont work out even closer to the time,saying this we can be suprised to.its going to be interesting for sure

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North Yorkshire
  • Location: North Yorkshire

Its all to play for at the moment even albert einstein could not predict the outcome all we can say for certain is were in for a colder spell of weather,whether it turns into something more severe is the big question and i think even countryfile will be hedging its bets tomorrow !!!!!

i think were in a 50 50 situation with nothing certain and as teits pointed out weve never had an 80 s style weather event on net weather since it begun, hence the we never see it coming scenario!!!! but enough ramping were still in with a chance here of something severe and the charts tomorrow will hopefuully clarify this 8)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Sorry I dont share the optimism. This run is a major downgrade for a rare large scale snow event midweek. As has already been said an Easterly will only bring snow to the extreem East. What the 12z and Fax etc show is a snow event over most of the country giving at least 5cm to most locations. Sorry but this is a disapointing run as far as im concerned. Anyway whinge over back to the beer 8)

A transitionary snow event is far less likely to deliver that an easterly - it's not only the east that sees snow from a decent easterly, history shows that... Long way to go though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
I was just worried that the Easterly will be dry due to being so close to the scandi high. Of corse if this high helps up folk in the east then its definatly a move in the right direction. Then again its not set in stone and loads more runs are needed and the countryfile forecast should be interesting viewing.

The Country File forecast will be intersesting if the 00 oz backs up the 18 oz pub run. Dunno if they will have time too see the 06 oz run. John H will know. If the 06 oz comes in half way house I suspect they may hedge the bets and not give much detail after Weds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beverley. East Riding of Yorkshire
  • Location: Beverley. East Riding of Yorkshire

Just wondered what the models show the temps will be in Suffolk this week ...sounds like they need a good virus killing temperature down there

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...