The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

[nick sussex]

Just for a laugh even the no gaps 18hrs run at 120hrs looks like its going to back the gfs 18hrs run! :lol:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_ca...=120&mode=0

So tonight we have two cannon fodder models the gme and looks like the no gaps backing events at 120hrs! Lets hope the others come on board tomorrow.I know people would like to see some snow but if that means the atlantic rolls in afterwards and washes it away then why have all that trauma! If we get a colder source of air at least this will increase chances for when the next atlantic low tries to get in, thats if it does!

Edited February 3, 2007 by nick sussex

[January Snowstorm]

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-126.png?18

Its alright ... heres a remedy

Cork wakes up to 3 feet of snow :lol:

Cold Turkey for teits as he stays dry :lol:

[snowingtequila]

This run may be an upgrade for cold but not for snow! If you look at percipitation its next to nothing. the easterly will be blowing from a very dry scandinvia sitting under a high pressure. If the 18z came off most of the country wouldn't see even 1cm of lying snow for the next week. If the 12z comes off most places will see between 5-15cm with kids (and me ) building snow men and sledging! Sorry a lower cet for the month doesn't realy do it for its not low temps its snow I want!

an easterly once set up is more likely to bring widespread snow, that won't mean you have to rush out to build a snowman t 4 in the morning before it turns to rain!

[The Eagle]

T+96 and t+120 faxes have updated recently for 12z Weds and Thurs:

12z Weds: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif

12z Thurs: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

From the 12z UKMO output - it is alot more progressive in introducing the frontal system from the SW on Thursday. The 18z GFS has the frontal system way back West at 12z Thurs, due to the stronger high progged to the East:

There very good fax IMO. :lol: ECM very interesting indeed too. You really do get the impression something is brewing.

[frozen_north]

The Nogaps run always provides laughs as it is always wrong even 96h ahead. If the 18z run is the pub run the no gaps model lives in the pub.

Edited February 3, 2007 by frozen_north

[The PIT]

Just for a laugh even the no gaps 18hrs run at 120hrs looks like its going to back the gfs 18hrs run! :lol:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_ca...=120&mode=0

So tonight we have two cannon fodder models the gme and looks like the no gaps backing events at 120hrs! Lets hope the others come on board tomorrow.I know people would like to see some snow but if that means the atlantic rolls in afterwards and washes it away then why have all that trauma!

No gaps looks better for Snow though.

It would be nice to have at least another day having Snow on the ground however briefly.

[kippure]

There very good fax IMO. :lol: ECM very interesting indeed too. You really do get the impression something is brewing.

Tomorrow nights 18z could be corker :lol:

[Optimus Prime]

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-126.png?18

Its alright ... heres a remedy

That looks pretty marginal to me. The high pressure isn't likely to build and produce a significantly cold easterly with the atlantic influence pushing through like that.

It's going to be extremely interesting though.

[TEITS]

Its also confusing me slightly why people are liking this run. Dry easterlys are useless and if this was to be the case then people will be getting bored waking up to frost every morning. However if its a easteley with loads precipitation, then there is room for excitment. Of corse you got to consider that this is only one run so anything is possible.

Without trying to state the obvious before you can have snow you need the cold air!. If we can tap into the cold air into the continent this can then set up much better snowfall opportunities further along the line than what a transitional spell can do. Some people need to be careful in what they are wishing. Do you want a few hrs of snow followed by 2 weeks of rain or postpone the snowfall in favour of a cold spell that could be more prolonged and offer far more snow event opportunites.

I know which I prefer.

[The PIT]

How much support does this run have??????

[The Eagle]

That looks pretty marginal to me. The high pressure isn't likely to build and produce a significantly cold easterly with the atlantic influence pushing through like that.

It's going to be extremely interesting though.

I think its ok :lol:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-2-126.png?18

[Tim Bland]

No gaps looks better for Snow though.

It would be nice to have at least another day having Snow on the ground however briefly.

Couldnt agree more from the 12z and earlier fax I was confident of seeing at least 1 more day of lying snow this winter. If the East wins I expect a long cold spell and if im lucky a few flurries I hope the models revert back to earlier runs tommorow!

[The Eagle]

How much support does this run have??????

Not much PIT tbh.

[Matty M]

That looks pretty marginal to me. The high pressure isn't likely to build and produce a significantly cold easterly with the atlantic influence pushing through like that.

It's going to be extremely interesting though.

The only thing thats marginal about that ENS run for Ireland is whether Cork would tip Dublin with the higher amount of snow accumalation..

4ft - 3ft

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-2-108.png?18

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-2-114.png?18

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-2-120.png?18

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-2-126.png?18

With the 24 hours of snowfall

[grab my graupel]

Its also confusing me slightly why people are liking this run. Dry easterlys are useless and if this was to be the case then people will be getting bored waking up to frost every morning. However if its a easteley with loads precipitation, then there is room for excitment. Of corse you got to consider that this is only one run so anything is possible.

I think people like this run for what it may potentialy become.

I personally think it is too far out to talk about the detail at this stage.

I think If you are into model watching then it certainly IMO is awhole lot

better than a return to Zonality which to me was OK at first but got

rather tedious and predictable after a while.

I would also welcome any sort of proper winter temperatures whatever the sourse.

Brian.

[Matty M]

Yes only really 2 specatacular runs in the Ensembles..

with a few similar to the operational

[D KARLSON]

:lol: -->

QUOTE(Paul B @ 3 Feb 2007, 11:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The ensemble mean shows a deep low just to the west of the UK by T+168, so don't expect anything too exciting on the 850hPa ensembles when they appear later. With huge differences in the models at T+72 we could wake up to almost anything from the charts in the morning. I would tend to favour the cold as if it was a straight forward zonal situation, the models would not be all over the place like they currently are.

i have to agree there the confusion in the models is a plus !!!!!!!! :lol:

[The Eagle]

Yes only really 2 specatacular runs in the Ensembles..

with a few similar to the operational

ECM - this excellent chart at 120hrs. Something like this is what we need at any rate.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?03-0

[Geordiesnow]

Without trying to state the obvious before you can have snow you need the cold air!. If we can tap into the cold air into the continent this can then set up much better snowfall opportunities further along the line than what a transitional spell can do. Some people need to be careful in what they are wishing. Do you want a few hrs of snow followed by 2 weeks of rain or postpone the snowfall in favour of a cold spell that could be more prolonged and offer far more snow event opportunites.

I know which I prefer.

Its depends. Dry easterleys are useless all you get is the odd flurry and frost in the morning. If this was December i think i will accept but not in Feb and the winter we suffered so far. I'm not a expert so i'm going to trust that this run is a upgrade though i'm less convinced.

With frontal snow at least there is snow falling and a chance of its stalling before fragmenting so THATS why i think its a downgrade.

[D KARLSON]

ECM - this excellent chart at 120hrs. Something like this is what we need at any rate.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?03-0

Its a cracker !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 :lol:

[PersianPaladin]

*passes cookies and hot chocolate around*

Great charts and many more upgrades to come ! :lol: :lol:

Robert

Hope your prediction comes off Robert.

However, unconventional it may be.

[grab my graupel]

Yes only really 2 specatacular runs in the Ensembles..

with a few similar to the operational

Hi Matty,

Do the ensembles want to maintain the Blocking to the East.

In what way are they bad I haven't seen them yet.

Edited February 3, 2007 by grab my graupels

[The Eagle]

Its a cracker !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

Sure is! Widespread heavy snowfall for most. Still FI though and majorly subject to change.

[grab my graupel]

Hope your prediction comes off Robert.

However, unconventional it may be.

What do you think of tonight 18z P.P.

[Nick F]

Without trying to state the obvious before you can have snow you need the cold air! . If we can tap into the cold air into the continent this can then set up much better snowfall opportunities further along the line than what a transitional spell can do. Some people need to be careful in what they are wishing. Do you want a few hrs of snow followed by 2 weeks of rain or postpone the snowfall in favour of a cold spell that could be more prolonged and offer far more snow event opportunites.

I know which I prefer.

Although we see a delay and uncertain arrival to the frontal system from the West, surely the longer cold air hangs on the better?! Certainly interms for avioding yet another well above averge CET.

A front still looks odds on atm on moving across us eventually, and a build of cold air and lower dew points from an E/SE feed will benefit us before it's arrival with some overnight frosts to boot. An Easterly feed ahead of any front moving in from the West will serve to make it's progress E'wards slow to stalling aswell.

Although it's pure speculative conjecture atm this far off for the end of week's prospects based on the 18z run, dry air feed off the continent to our East will benefit in lowering the dew points well below freezing across the UK, so when the frontal system does finally arrive snow will fall to low levels much more easily than if dew points are marginal (just above 0C).

Dps Friday - Saturday week