The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

[Optimus Prime]

Before getting excited it would be helpful to know what the progged surface temperature is likely to be.

If we were in the 60's I/we'd probably accept it's likely to snow but these days you need to have all corners covered....

Edited February 3, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[paul tall]

Without trying to state the obvious before you can have snow you need the cold air!. If we can tap into the cold air into the continent this can then set up much better snowfall opportunities further along the line than what a transitional spell can do. Some people need to be careful in what they are wishing. Do you want a few hrs of snow followed by 2 weeks of rain or postpone the snowfall in favour of a cold spell that could be more prolonged and offer far more snow event opportunites.

I know which I prefer.

The trouble with this is its all potential. Historically potential never comes off. Ever.

I'll take my chances with the Atlantic raging in by Thursday bringing a few hours of heavy snowfall, thank you very much.

Sod hoping that the Scandi high keeps the Atlantic at bay because it MIGHT lead to something better (in July).

What will happen is that we will end up in no mans land with the Atlantic front not quite making it across our shores and the potential easterly not coming off and then dissipating, giving us a few days of cool dry weather. That is what will happen.

And then the Atlantic will move in after yet another false dawn and a sort of dry cool checkmate, destroying my life yet again.

[The PIT]

Before getting excited it would be helpful to know what the progged surface temperature is likely to be.

If we were in the 60's I/we'd probably accept it's likely to snow but these days you need to have all corners covered....

Cold??? Ifd you trust GFS that is.

[Tim Bland]

The trouble with this is its all potential. Historically potential never comes off. Ever.

I'll take my chances with the Atlantic raging in by Thursday bringing a few hours of heavy snowfall, thank you very much.

Sod hoping that the Scandi high keeps the Atlantic at bay because it MIGHT lead to something better (in July).

What will happen is that we will end up in no mans land with the Atlantic front not quite making it across our shores and the potential easterly not coming off and then dissipating, giving us a few days of cool dry weather. That is what will happen.

And then the Atlantic will move in after yet another false dawn and a sort of dry cool checkmate, destroying my life yet again.

Im with you on this 1 ! This late in the day we have to take what we can get! The best scenario would be the atlantic to win giving widespread snow to then retreat and allow cold easterlies but thats just wanting my cake and eating it too! I think the 18z is a blip and things will revert back to a breakdown late Weds inot Thurs on tommorows charts (I hope)

[johnholmes]

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QUOTE(Paul B @ 3 Feb 2007, 09:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Obviously its been a while since I have studied the charts in detail, but looking at them this evening on the excellent Net-Weather Extra section, I can see a cold start to the week with a Greenland High slowly declining. Fronts then try to approach from the west, but they could be stopped by rising pressure to the east. Some very exciting charts there I thought, and some intriguing model watching to do.

welcome back Paul.

[Paul]

Only on this thread could there be people moaning after the best day of runs this winter!!!

Anyway, ensembles are complete, not much sign of what the GFS has come up with on them, which is unusual.

Looking east, perhaps increasing agreement of height rises though..

[grab my graupel]

Im with you on this 1 ! This late in the day we have to take what we can get! The best scenario would be the atlantic to win giving widespread snow to then retreat and allow cold easterlies but thats just wanting my cake and eating it too! I think the 18z is a blip and things will revert back to a breakdown late Weds inot Thurs on tommorows charts (I hope)

That's being too sensible, I'd take the risk anyday

[davehsug]

The problem here is that no one here has ever actually seen a "real" cold spell evolving in the models. We can look at the archive charts at what did happen, but we've never seen what the models were saying beforehand. Now this may not be a real cold spell, GFS could be wrong & we're back in mild weather by Friday, who knows?

The older amongst us will have seen the weather charts on the TV from an evolving cold spell, even then surprises & changes were always around within 48-60 hours & not always for the better!

It's just fascinating, whatever the outcome.

Dave

[robert]

is that programed into your replies, thats the same thing you said earlier

Hi Barry,

I think it was slightly different

Robert

[PersianPaladin]

18z is a bit weird; as temp wise it doesn't seem to be an outlier, but there is some considerable member divergence as to the pressure building to our NE heading towards the F.I. range. I'm not getting my hopes up yet; as the 18z has little support and really depends upon a multitude of factors towards our side of the Atlantic and up towards northern Europe.

I think the 00z may backtrack slightly on the strengthening of this Scandi-high and head slightly more towards the UKMO solution.

[grab my graupel]

It's just fascinating, whatever the outcome.

Dave

Yep, I fully agree with that Dave

[paul tall]

At the end of the day give me 15cm snow and I'll shut up moaning.

I'm not interested in potential after t156, it never happens....I'm interested in actualities.

This winter has really got to me, badly.

I can see the models look good, but I still can't help but feel that everybody has gone mental. I hope I'm very, very wrong.

[Tim Bland]

What I dont get is how the GRF came up with that scenario when it has no sipport what so ever from the Ensembles? Dont think ive ever seen that before! Ive seen a few outliers but that run was completely un suported can anyone explain how this has happened?

[Snowyowl9]

The fax looks much better aswell,and time for more uprades too.

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1441.gif

Channel low anyone.

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-0-126.png?18

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-126.png?18

Chart of the day has got to be this.

Lets hope the trend continues on the 0z run.

Goodnight all.

[Tim Bland]

What I dont get is how the GRF came up with that scenario when it has no sipport what so ever from the Ensembles? Dont think ive ever seen that before! Ive seen a few outliers but that run was completely un suported can anyone explain how this has happened?

The above should read GFS - I havent just found a new model just had 2 many beers - oops!

[SnowJoke]

Looking good, a nice upgrade as i predicted earlier on. I cannot see why so many people are still disheartened here?

Things are looking better and better with every run for snowfall potential, what we are seeing develop here is something rare and quite special. All the major snowfall events in the past that i remember from cold or very cold winters have arisen from synoptic setups like this. All the very heavy snowfall in this area has occoured when a strong scandinavian high draws in the cold from the east and commences battle with the incoming atlantic fronts.

I have been saying this is going to be something special in terms of wintry weather / snowfall.

You've just got to wait for future upgrades, i'm pretty sure they will follow with consecutive runs and most of us will be looking at some decent snowfall at the end of next week

[MAF]

Only on this thread could there be people moaning after the best day of runs this winter!!!

Anyway, ensembles are complete, not much sign of what the GFS has come up with on them, which is unusual.

Looking east, perhaps increasing agreement of height rises though..

Ha, how right you are Paul. still with the return of Paul B and John H back off his holidays what more could we ask for.

[kippure]

Looking good, a nice upgrade as i predicted earlier on. I cannot see why so many people are still disheartened here?

Things are looking better and better with every run for snowfall potential, what we are seeing develop here is something rare and quite special. All the major snowfall events in the past that i remember from cold or very cold winters have arisen from synoptic setups like this. All the very heavy snowfall in this area has occoured when a strong scandinavian high draws in the cold from the east and commences battle with the incoming atlantic fronts.

I have been saying this is going to be something special in terms of wintry weather / snowfall.

You've just got to wait for future upgrades, i'm pretty sure they will follow with consecutive runs and most of us will be looking at some decent snowfall at the end of next week

Amen to that.

[johnholmes]

The Country File forecast will be intersesting if the 00 oz backs up the 18 oz pub run. Dunno if they will have time too see the 06 oz run. John H will know. If the 06 oz comes in half way house I suspect they may hedge the bets and not give much detail after Weds.

they will have had a quick preview for some of the run, beyond that I don't know.

[grab my graupel]

What I dont get is how the GRF came up with that scenario when it has no sipport what so ever from the Ensembles? Dont think ive ever seen that before! Ive seen a few outliers but that run was completely un suported can anyone explain how this has happened?

Actually I think there was support for this.

I don't know if you saw the postage stamps today, which on viewing suggested some good

blocking to the East.

Brian.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Goodbye even larger teapot?? Where are the warmists....no mild at T384 SET IN STONE? Blocking building, jet diving folks its taken its time but a good Feb beckons. What an 18z and as Robert says it will progress and lengthen into 'proper cold spell'. I saidif the mild initially wins out it will be short lived before blocking and cold re asserts....the evidence is building

BFTP

Edited February 4, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[PersianPaladin]

Well, I shall be staying up for the 00z (again). As long as I work evenings weekly, then I will be able to do this - and there is no evidence of me jinxing it either; after the last couple of runs were quite decent.

[mackerel sky]

These are interesting times. We haven't had synoptics like these for several years.

Again the whinging and whining sets in, in some quarters.

What must the weather and models do to keep people happy?

I won't be going off on one tonight, in fact i'm going to bed.

[The PIT]

they will have had a quick preview for some of the run, beyond that I don't know.

Well I guess it's down to the Midnight watchers and early morning risers.

[snowdrifter]

Just got in from an evening out and read every post since the 18z. Wow! Edge of the seat stuff. I just want a repeat of Feb '96 for as many people as possible. 24 hours of snow, big snowmen, sledging, snowball fights, memorable indeed. It could happen. Hanging on every run now.