GFS 06z charts discussion

[snowspotter]

My initial reaction is that thursday night (on this run) could produce a hammering for us down in the SE with temps close to 0 and piles of precipitation with east winds to come ?? :o

[Matty M]

Second low blasts through with heavy snow in Scotland..

Thing i think are still just a tad uncertain!!!

[TEITS]

Possibly, temps could just be on the marginal side for lower levels like mine, but anyone with some elevation should be fine I would have have thought.

At first I thought those at elevation would be preferred but since the Scandi HP has got involved this is a different situation.

The snow risk could well extend for E areas also due to the HP bringing lower temps due to the SE,ly and of course lower Dew point temps. But due to the HP will the precip even reach us??

[snowdrifter]

Friday could be fun.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1144.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1148.gif

Temps around 0C, DP around -2C, Sub -5C 850 hpa!.

Sounds like a recipe for how to make snow. Like it. One huge help is that a lot of this will come through Thursday NIGHT, keeping any margin of error re temps in our favour. Friday morning will be fun if this comes off.

[snowmadchrisuk]

My initial reaction is that thursday night (on this run) could produce a hammering for us down in the SE with temps close to 0 and piles of precipitation with east winds to come ?? :o

If east winds were to follow thursday nights event , wouldn't that send the ppn back our way.

[Snowly does it]

The Atlantic's second attack at T132 is drawing up much warmer 850s on a southerly.

Edited February 4, 2007 by snowmaiden

[nick sussex]

Thankfully the gfs this morning doesnt back that horror ecm 00hrs run, later on the real interest is whether that low can undercut the block rather than head ne at 132hrs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.html

If we're to extend the cold spell this shortwave feature running off the main low needs to head eastwards and split from the main atlantic low and undercut the block, will be interesting to see if any of the ensembles go for this option.

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex

[swfc]

YEP looks like the high is going south east. :o

[karyo]

The Atlantic's second attack at T132 is drawing up much warmer 850s on a sourthely.

Yes, the Atlantic is stronger in this run and the Scandi high weaker so the Atlantic wins. Iwas hoping for the opposite.

Karyo

[snowmadchrisuk]

The Atlantic's second attack at T132 is drawing up much warmer 850s on a sourthely.

Surface temps across england though still -1 to 1 deg so still a chance as the ppn is heavy. anyway i think the cold will be upgraded possibly by that time and hang on longer due to being colder.

[Harsh Climate]

Well, were the heck did the 00z UKMO charts come from!? absolutly cracking.. shame the next major player (ECMWF) has different ideas..... :o

Just like I keep saying, avoiding low pressure developeing over northern scandinavia is key to a true scandi high developeing..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

00Z at T162

Here

06z at T144

Here

Sorry the T162 has now changed to the 06z

06z is an upgrade. Many wouldn't pay much attention but battle Royale is upon us and Feb 07 will be remembered not for its severity but because of the breaking the 'even larger teapot' myth???. As early as next week is showing that, synoptics allegedly not achievable...well here they come. I think anyone punting for 3-4C CET are on the money. Look for potential more robust Scandi HP which will only be undercut and not shunted away

BFTP

Edited February 4, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Much prefer this run again. I think there has been reasonable consistency so far that there will be a breakdown to milder by early next week (i.e. in seven days or so), so I would have thought a more progressive set of events is what we want so more precipitation can come up against what cold air there is next Thursday, Friday and perhaps Saturday, rather than a stronger (but still transient) high stalling the fronts to our west until the warmer Atlantic air overcomes the block, which would mean cold and dry followed by milder and rain.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[Snowly does it]

Yes, look at the LP. its trying to undercut the block??

Milder for the south for that day but this could still turn out interesting.....

[Harsh Climate]

Dare I say it, things are looking fantastic.

Even rain preceeded by snow, followed by a strong southwesterly from a truly mild sourcs can last for hours, yet alone what these charts are showing! Id hazard to guess what could happen in this situation! :o

But still too early to be celebrating, although whatever happens, itl have been great just to watch the country file forecast!

[karyo]

00Z at T162

Here

06z at T144

Here

06z is an upgrade

BFTP

The orientation of the low is better but the high is weaker.

[Hiya]

Second low blasts through with heavy snow in Scotland..

Slightly similar to the 12th March event, where the incoming atlantic mingled with a failed atempt at an easterly, the heavy snow accorded with 0C 850, So I'm confident things can club together to give two similar events within 3 days. Anyone care add up the depth Central Scotland can get from two of these events? :o

Assuming the first one doesn't melt, what you think the chances of that are?

[snowmadchrisuk]

even carries on the chance of snow into sunday on this run.

[paul tall]

Cool and dry followed by milder with rain coming in. That is what will happen.

[Harsh Climate]

No need to worry about the rest of this run, it is an upgrade on the 00z and most importantly maintains the trend. :o

After 120h at the moment is FI, I reckon... lol I normally have it around 180h-204h lol.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Jed Bickerdike

[Snowly does it]

Look NW at T162

[johnholmes]

I've put my latest unofficial ideas on blog 6 for anyone wanting to look.

cheers

John

[Troubleatmill]

Look NW at T162

Yes , greenland high trying to rebuild !! :o

[Harsh Climate]

I've put my latest unofficial ideas on blog 6 for anyone wanting to look.

cheers

John

where can I find this?

[Weather-history]

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVP89.TIF

Friday's FAX chart